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How Assad’s Collapse Paves the Way for a Stronger Israel–Ukraine Partnership

March 20, 2008. A Merkava tank during a training day held in the Golan Heights for the 188th Armored Brigade.
March 20, 2008. A Merkava tank during a training day held in the Golan Heights for the 188th Armored Brigade.

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine continues to have global repercussions. Among them, at least in part, is the fall of the vicious Assad regime. This regime collapse has ramifications that can and should go beyond the Middle East. Specifically, this event opens the way to a full-fledged Israeli alignment with Ukraine, a policy that would benefit both sides.

Syria’s Repercussions

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s state has eliminated any need for Israel to have a working agreement with Russia regarding Syria. For a long time, and despite some Russian policymakers’ misgivings, Israel and Russia managed a working agreement that Israel would not attack Russian bases in Syria.

At the same time, Moscow looked the other way if Israel struck at Iranian logistical support for Hamas and Hezbollah. This arrangement, based on pure Realpolitik, lasted until Moscow’s over-extension in Ukraine forced it into a much deeper alignment, if not a potential alliance, with Iran. The consequences of that alignment are now visible to everyone.

Russia now depends on regular supplies of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles and has transferred the Su-35 fighter to Iran, is about to sign a significant defense agreement with Tehran, and has transferred weapons to Hamas, Hezbollah, and also ship sighting technology to the Houthis in Yemen. Russia has cast its lot with Iran, sundering the connection to Israel. Moreover, during the war against Ukraine, Putin, on several occasions, has invoked Russia’s traditional Anti-Semitism, another sign that Russian Jewry is again in potential danger and that, if pressed, Putin has no hesitancy in playing the Anti-Semitic card. Obviously, such a regime cannot serve as a partner for Israel.

While Israel had other priorities until now and was hardly going to strike at Russian targets until it dealt with Hamas and Hezbollah, it no longer needs to worry about Russian military action in Syria. Russia will be lucky to retain its bases there but will not have an Iranian ally in Syria.

Syria’s new regime has made clear that it will no longer serve as the logistical lynchpin of Iranian strategy to forge a multi-theater ring of fire around Israel, including Syria. The latter also served as the primary link to both these Iranian-backed terrorist groups.

That strategy now lies in ruins, and Iran’s vulnerability to Israeli and potential US strikes is now plainly visible.

Israel Becomes Unintangled with Russia

At this point, there are no serious geostrategic obstacles to Israel aligning with Ukraine. Indeed, this alignment might benefit both governments.

The benefits to Ukraine are apparent. It acquires a new battle-tested ally with superb and proven intelligence and defense production capability.  

Hopefully, this alignment will lead to Israeli supplies to Ukraine. Indeed, there are earlier reports of Israeli shipments of early-warning systems to Ukraine.

At the same time, this alignment further extends the democratic alliance against the well-known Axis of Upheaval: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s ties with Israel will strengthen its influence in Washington under the Trump Administration.

Outlining the Axis

Beyond these considerations, the benefits to Israel are equally significant. First, we and Israel must grasp, as Ukraine does, that these two wars are, in effect, one war in separate theaters. They are wars against the US, its allies, and the idea of democracy.

And unless both Israel and Ukraine win, i.e., their territorial integrity is restored or maintained, foreign troops are expelled, acts of war cease, and their freedom to conduct their foreign policies as they see fit is recognized, both these theaters of the Axis’ war against the West will be aflame for years to come.

Second, support for Ukraine will improve Israel’s standing in Europe, which has undeservedly but genuinely suffered during the war against Hamas and Hezbollah.

Third, this alignment adds to the pressure on Iran and Russia since mutual intelligence sharing and technology transfer enables Ukraine and Israel to strike Russian and Iranian targets more effectively.  

Fourth, this alignment implicitly functions to keep Turkey’s dreams of revived hegemony in the Levant in check. Though Turkey has been a reliable partner to Ukraine and rightly closed the Straits when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it nonetheless harbors dreams of playing the kingpin in the Middle East, and its leader, President Erdogan, is instinctively hostile to Israel and a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.  Thus, this alignment checks Turkish ambitions in the Black Sea and Mediterranean as well as the Russo-Iranian axis in the Middle East. 

Fifth, should this alignment add another element, and in this case, a battle-tested potential supplier of arms and technologies to Ukraine, which clearly needs all the help it can get from foreign suppliers to survive, let alone prevail? 

Sixth, To the extent that Iran comes under increasing pressure and even threat, its ability to provide Russia with weapons will probably fall off, possibly to the degree that Ukraine can strike back at Russian forces and targets, including Russia’s defense industry, which is already experiencing difficulties despite its mobilization, will likewise find it hard to transfer weapons systems to Iran.

Therefore, for Israel, a genuine strategic partnership with Ukraine benefits it strategically and equally, if not more importantly, morally. It reaffirms its democratic identity and aligns with partner states against those who threaten both democracy and the existence of both Ukraine and Israel.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Assad and Putin. Image: Creative Commons.

At the same time, it strengthens the US alliance network and resistance to the Axis of Upheaval that supports Russian aggression and Iran’s strategy of terrorism and nuclear proliferation.

The Path Forward

There are no longer grounds for postponing this alignment or equivocating about it as both states’ enemies have now suffered serious strategic defeats in the Middle East. Since the strategic destinies of both Israel and Ukraine are bound up with each other, it is now time for both governments to seize the opportunity that lies before them, for more often than not, there are no second chances in world politics.

About the Author: Dr. Stephen Blank 

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He has published over 900 articles and monographs on Soviet/Russian, U.S., Asian, and European military and foreign policies, testified frequently before Congress on Russia, China, and Central Asia, consulted for the Central Intelligence Agency, major think tanks and foundations, chaired major international conferences in the U.S. and in Florence; Prague; and London, and has been a commentator on foreign affairs in the media in the U.S. and abroad. He has also advised major corporations on investing in Russia and is a consultant for the Gerson Lehrmann Group. He is the author of Russo-Chinese Energy Relations: Politics in Command (London: Global Markets Briefing, 2006), and Natural Allies? Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005). Dr. Blank is also the author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin’s Commissariat of Nationalities (Greenwood, 1994); and the co-editor of The Soviet Military and the Future (Greenwood, 1992).

Written By

Dr. Stephen J. Blank is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program. He has published over 900 articles and monographs on Soviet/Russian, U.S., Asian, and European military and foreign policies, testified frequently before Congress on Russia, China, and Central Asia, consulted for the Central Intelligence Agency, major think tanks and foundations, chaired major international conferences in the U.S. and in Florence; Prague; and London, and has been a commentator on foreign affairs in the media in the U.S. and abroad. He has also advised major corporations on investing in Russia and is a consultant for the Gerson Lehrmann Group. He is the author of Russo-Chinese Energy Relations: Politics in Command (London: Global Markets Briefing, 2006), and Natural Allies? Regional Security in Asia and Prospects for Indo-American Strategic Cooperation (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 2005). Dr. Blank is also the author of The Sorcerer as Apprentice: Stalin’s Commissariat of Nationalities (Greenwood, 1994); and the co-editor of The Soviet Military and the Future (Greenwood, 1992).

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. pagar

    January 12, 2025 at 9:10 pm

    A ukraine-Israel partnership will be a sort of true replica for today of yesterday’s tumultous adolf’s partnership with benito mussolini.

    How did that fare.

    When benito last met with the fuhrer, he indicated a desire to end the partnership Instead he was warned by adolf about germany’s upcoming weapons like the new V-2 vergeltungswaffe rockets.

    So, it is very most unwise for both ukraine and Israel to start any partnership because the consequences would be very unimaginably horrible and fully irreversible and totally malodorous.

  2. Swamplaw Yankee

    January 13, 2025 at 6:20 am

    Wonderful! This Blank must have uninterrupted Breakfast time with Trump for the next 7 days. It is criminal not to have Blank MEET Trump to speak and asap! The Problem: The Aquarium effect on the USA MAGA + Conservative movement. The dirty green slime on the MSM glass walls keeps the few logical observers in America from the facts of the world empires. Moreover, the Arabella cash syndrome keeps any air pumped into the deep Yankee waters to a dangerous level ( that is low).

    The only Victory is a Ukrainian Victory! Blank sent this Victory message for Ukraine out previously. Where is this basic data repeated in all or even any of the Yankee MSM? Is this repression an analogy to the data on the Hunter Biden lap top computer? We all know Blank is 99.9% correct! But, the Anabella cash induced MSM just will not admit a single Blank point! Why, then, is the foremost question.

    Now, Blank courageously points out that Israel itself is slowly strangling their state’s future chance of survival. Critically, Blank pushes for Israel to strike out for Fortress West to be located in Crimea/Sevastopol, that is in illegally occupied Ukraine. Place the Fortress in Crimea/Sevastopol and protect the West.

    The question remains, who exactly in Israel is stopping this world level historic Ukraine-Israel Cooperation? Since 2014 the crisis for Israel was so very clear for even a blind observer. My many comments on this topic have been ignored. Even the October 6 failure in Intelligence structures has been evicerated from the world MSM. I expect at least a dozen pilot proposals in Hollywood on this exact topic and asap! Not. An old fashioned chitty chitty bang bang worked for Gog’s Hamas. Imagine millions of drones set off from wonderful far away places such as Lebanon and Gaza. Yeah, that big buck Iron shield so promoted by the MSM would not have prevented a thorough Kherson type genocide hunt in every Israeli urban centre.

    Blank sets out basic steps for the slow Yankee “Mercan” mind. Blank understands the very low oxygen level in the Aquarium of the USA. Blank cautiously begs for Yankee minds to try logic and deduce out his few basic points. Wow: Grade 1 level data: but can the Yankee structure process it now, asap + before January 20?

    Anti-Semitic and anti-Israel vitriol is endemic in the USA + west since Oct 6. Is this open terrorist activity in the west not evident to those who run Israel?

    Ukraine is being sacrificed by fifth column elements inside the USA who state their hate of the people of Israel. Give The Orc Muscovite empire genociders what ukrainian soil they want + asap is the open mantra in Yankee MSM.

    As the rush of fellows, academics, military + intelligence types rush to publish their fictional projections on the aquarium glass before january 20, there is a huge probability that Blank, et al, will be submerged, unseen.

    Blank must be debated openly in the west, especially within the Cabal around Trump, and asap. Israel needs to fund a fortress Europe and initiate the liberation of Crimea/Sevastopol. Blank is correct that the west must be saved. Yes, NATO cowards exist. One can see that the extreme right of the yellow backed lefty pinkoes woke weasal scream for deletion of any 4 0r 5 % GNP Zeitenwende talk.

    The west was in the same Yankee, now Trump, dilemma about 500 years ago. Constantinople was attacked by Gog and Magog. All of the west knew of this vital battle. The yellow backed lefty pinkoe right extremists won the GNP debate back then. The Emperor of Constantinople waited for the much promised European hardware and military to appear. Yeah, it was coming, exactly the day after after Gog’s steel blades cut off all your heads. And that is how the Christian Fortress and Civilization of Armenia, Pontic Greece, Anatolia, Cilicia vanished.
    Blank gives Trump America a very rare chance to amend history and deliver hardware to Ukraine and Israel on time. Or, just tell the expelled Ukrainians, the observant Jews of Israel that the Yankee wants to repeat the fall of Constantinople, “Mercan” style. That the sharp steel blade edge of Gog that missed them on October 6 is now approved for a return visit. The woke weasal words would be so historic and seal reputations forever. – 30 –

  3. Zhduny

    January 13, 2025 at 7:59 am

    Israel and Ukraine are like two forests situated on different continents.

    One forest is blooming while the other is on fire and burning furiously.

    Israel is now king of the hill in the middle east, possessing a super powerful military and an undeclared nuclear arsenal.

    On the other hand, ukraine is a failing neo-nazi entity, its military about to face total defeat in europe and now barely hanging onto the edge with its fingertips.

    Thus a partnership between Israel and Ukraine is simply not possible this side of heaven.

  4. Kangal

    January 13, 2025 at 2:45 pm

    Ukraine was the poorest European state before the war and now a lot of it is destroyed by Putins soldateska.
    What do they have to offer apart from being a front state against Russia?
    Israel should focus on its neighbourhood, which is difficult enough. The rest is US support and Trump will likely kill all Ukrainian dreams just for his peace treaty, which he hopes will score him the Nobel Peace Price.

  5. Jim

    January 13, 2025 at 3:58 pm

    Be careful what you wish for it might come true.

    Assad’s fall has created as many problems as it may have solved… that wasn’t the expectation.

    Now, Israel is concerned about a war with Turkey. And, the PR campaign for the new government makes them sound moderate, but there is plenty of killing & chaos in Syria.

    I submit the United States doesn’t benefit from chaos.

    Okay, what’s done is done.

    The author wants to conflate Israel and Ukraine because he knows many Americans strongly support Israel and if he can link their welfare together in the minds of those Israel supporters, maybe, they will be more fervent in their support of Ukraine.

    Maybe, even put political pressure on Trump to continue the war.

    Sorry, Israel and Ukraine aren’t linked in any meaningful way… other, than in the imagination of the author.

    The Ukraine policy has failed… it’s a mistake to link to two issues… but that’s what war supporters do… they’ll say anything they think might stick in terms of keeping the Ukraine war going.

    No matter how ridiculous.

    Or inappropriate… or dangerous.

    Why? Because they want a pony and they can’t have it.

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