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North Korea Has All the Leverage: But for How Long?

Hwasong-12 IRBM. Image Credit: North Korea State Media.
Hwasong-12 IRBM. Image Credit: North Korea State Media.

The North Korean regime must be celebrating. After years of bad news on its foreign relations, the regime is finally getting what it presumably perceives as a fair amount of good news. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un can now claim that not only has Russia become a major ally, but also that North Korea is providing military assistance to this major power. And Russia is providing North Korea with resources and military capabilities that Kim clearly wants. Meanwhile, Kim is clearly pleased that his arch enemy, South Korea, is suffering political turmoil. And Kim presumably hopes that he will be able to extract concessions from the new Trump Administration.

North Korea Has the All the Cards…For Now

Nevertheless, Kim still faces significant economic, political, and other challenges inside North Korea. Only time will tell whether these external changes will be sufficient for Kim to reverse or at least manage his internal challenges.

Relations with Russia and China

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it was apparently expecting a short conflict of historical character. When that turned out not to be the case, Russia quickly discovered that it did not have the munitions and other military resources that it needed to sustain the conflict. In order to make up its deficit, Russia secured military resources from the few countries it could—Iran, North Korea, and China.

Since at least 2023, North Korea has been sending munitions, other military equipment, and supporting military personnel to Russia to assist Russia with its invasion of Ukraine. Kim then held a summit meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in September 2023, and signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” pact with Putin after another summit in June 2024. Consistent with this alliance, Kim has sent some 11,000 or so combat troops to further assist Russia, though the Russians have given them fake Russian identification since Putin is embarrassed by not being able to defend Russian territory with Russian personnel.

Kim appears extraordinarily pleased by his relationship with Russia. To the leadership of North Korea, North Korea must have a very strong military for Russia to need the North’s help in defending itself. And this makes Kim look very powerful and successful. And for Kim, the relationship has offered military technologies, food and other goods, and even money, all needed to offset the abysmal performance of the North Korean economy and support Kim’s weapons programs. 

Moreover the developing North Korean relationship with Russia gives Kim leverage on China. China wants regional if not global domination by 2049, and yet at the current time Russia has more influence on North Korea. Kim is thus able to extort various forms of aid from China, likely making Kim feel that he is in a powerful position.

Ongoing Political Turmoil in South Korea

Kim Jong-un has historically been very worried about threats to his regime that could develop as his elites and others see news reports or other outside information showing how much better South Koreans live than North Koreans. This has led him to try to close his borders to prevent the import of outside information, and to impose extreme penalties on any North Korean caught consuming such information. 

North Korea ICBM

North Korea ICBM. Image Credit: KCNA.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol’s declaration of martial law on December 3 has left South Korea in political turmoil. Interestingly, North Korea initially said nothing about this turmoil for the first week—Kim likely felt that the South Koreans were causing more damage to the integrity of their country than he could possibly do. A week later the North finally noted the events in South Korea and claimed that Yoon acted as a fascist dictator in declaring martial law. This situation will not reduce the relative wealth of the South or make North Korean life appear competitive with that of the South, but Kim must be very pleased that for once it appears that North Korea is more stable than the South.

The Potential Relations with the Trump Administration

At the Republican Presidential Convention in 2024, Donald Trump spoke of Kim saying: “He’d like to see me back, too. I think he misses me…” Trump’s team is reportedly discussing direct talks with Kim to reduce North Korean threats. 

But Kim Jong-un is taking another approach. We have to remember that Kim was embarrassed when Trump walked out of the Hanoi summit meeting in 2019—Kim had been expecting a major victory over Trump, which he needed for internal purposes. He recently said that “We have already gone as far as we can on negotiating with the United States.” Kim “vowed to implement the ‘toughest’ anti-U.S. policy.” 

Of course, this appears to be a negotiating ploy to avoid another embarrassment and therefore to secure major concessions from Trump before any new negotiations. Moreover, Kim has been very clear that the North will not denuclearize—Kim must be delighted that Trump has recognized North Korea as a nuclear power before any further diplomacy. This is a major victory for Kim and demonstrates especially to his elites that Kim is very powerful and that the North’s nuclear weapons program has been the proper approach.

North Korean Military. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

North Korean Military. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Not All the News Is Good News for Kim

This good foreign relations news for North Korea comes amidst a lot of bad news for Kim Jong-un. In particular, the North Korean economy is doing poorly, and Kim has even admitted the poor performance of his economy and the substandard quality of construction and goods. Moreover, North Korean conditions do not appear to be getting better. At the same time, outside information keeps leaking into the North, some of which demonstrates that living conditions in South Korea continue to be far superior to the conditions in the North. And instability continues to grow in the North, in part associated with Kim trying to stem information infiltration by renouncing Korean unification a year ago. This risky operation is also associated with brutal efforts to prevent the influx of outside information. Instability is also growing associated Kim’s risky choice to send North Korean military personnel to fight and die in Russia. And Kim has not been able to deliver on his promise to put 3 more satellites into orbit in 2024. 

It will be interesting to see how much Kim’s 2024 foreign relations successes are able to offset his failures. Kim may well take further risks, including the testing of a nuclear weapon. The coming months may become very interesting.

About the Author: Dr. Bruce W. Bennett

Bruce W. Bennett is a senior international/defense researcher at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution. He works primarily on research topics such as strategy, force planning, and counterproliferation within the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Program.

Written By

Bruce W. Bennett is an adjunct international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He works primarily on research topics such as strategy, force planning, and counterproliferation within the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. megiddo

    January 23, 2025 at 10:07 pm

    In recent years pyongyang has made several not insignificant strides while coming under crushing intense sanctions, bans and provocations by joe biden and lackeys.

    Thus, kim jong-un doesn’t need to fret or worry about trump.

    On the other hand, trump needs to worry about countries that get all tangled up into sixes and sevens over ‘ham’ jokes.

    If the author doesn’t understand what’s that,
    just google it.

    Lots of people are now rushing over to visit syria, including politicians from EU, UN, and even the ICC boss Karm Khan.

    Who’s next.

    Trump ?, rubio ? Yeah, marco rubio. What the heck.

    Meanwhile, in syria, local HTS bigshots are bricking up churches and what not.

    Perhaps the oval office or the State Dept should send them a note of happy congratulations.

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