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The Air Force’s B-21 Raider Bomber Dilemma Won’t Be Fixed Easily

B-21 Raider. Industry Handout.
B-21 Raider bomber.

What You Need to Know: The U.S. Air Force faces a growing bomber deficit as B-1B and B-2 aircraft near retirement. The B-21 Raider, planned at a fleet size of 100, offers advanced capabilities, including stealth, networking, and unmanned system control.

-However, calls to increase production to 200 bombers could address the gap and lower per-unit costs, currently estimated at $700 million each.

-Expanding the fleet would enhance readiness against emerging threats like China’s H-20 and Russia’s PAK DA bombers.

-Scaling production might require trade-offs, but ensuring sufficient numbers of B-21s could secure U.S. strategic air power for decades to come.

Should the US Air Force Double Its B-21 Raider Bomber Fleet?

Should the Pentagon and the United States Air Force decide to flex and “scale” its B-21 Raider bomber effort? Would that lower the $700 million per-plane costs and meet or start to meet the services’ long-standing “bomber deficit?” 

Without a steady stream of arriving B-21s, the Air Force’s bomber deficit may become even more concerning as it continues to grow in a dangerous direction given the threat environment and requirement to progressively retire B1-B and B-2 bombers.  

These impactful legacy bomber programs continue to receive life-extension technologies, upgrades, and improvements. Yet, Air Force leaders state clear intentions that the B-21s must arrive at the fastest possible pace. The Air Force plan is to incrementally retire B1-Bs and B-2s in coming years as B-21s emerge, yet how fast will this happen?  

Will the Air Force’s bomber deficit get worse or even rise to dangerous levels? Years ago, the service wrote a “bomber vector” analysis designed to mitigate the service’s bomber shortage, a text which called for extensive upgrades and life extension programs for the B-2 and B1-B while also championing the anticipated arrival of sufficient numbers of B-21s. 

In response, the Air Force has massively upgraded its small fleet of B-2s with a series of new sensors, command and control technologies, weapons systems, and stealth-enhancing properties. The B-2 may be capable of flying with great success and relevance well into the 2040s despite already being 30 years old.

However, the B-2 fleet suffers a “mass” problem as there is only a fleet of 20 aircraft due to cutting efforts short years ago. 

The B1-B, while a successful workhorse in Iraq and Afghanistan, is different. While the B1-B underwent upgrades with a new bomb-rack unit, new computing, and the ability to carry hypersonic weapons, it may retire more quickly. 

200 B-21 Raider Bombers for the U.S. Air Force? 

One idea may be to return to fleet-size discussions that circulated at the Pentagon several years ago when many senior Air Force leaders and weapons developers called for as many as 200 B-21 bombers. Could this address the deficit? There are two colliding factors, given that the fleet size is currently established at 100 B-21s and the price has soared to $700 million per plane. A significant essay from Northrop in June of 2024 cites consistent numbers, stating the average price-per-unit is expected to be $550 million in 2010 dollars. 

There is little question that a move to 200 B-21s would bring massive new expenses to the Pentagon. It might achieve the dual-pronged goal of addressing the Air Force bomber deficit while substantially lessening the cost-per-plane. A larger fleet size would enable Northrop to “flex” its industrial capacity, build more bombers sooner, and potentially considerably lower the cost of B-21s. 

B-1B Lancer Bomber

B-1B Lancer Bomber. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force.

Considering this will likely force difficult decisions, and some concerning potential trade-offs may prove necessary given the growing threat environment. China’s H-20, for instance, as stated in Pentagon reports, is believed to operate with a significant range and reach, likely to increase its capacity to hold US targets at risk. Russia’s PAK DA bomber also appears to be generating attention as a possible area of concern. 

These new Russian and Chinese bombers‘ precise technological components may not yet be fully known. However, should they in any way challenge the B-21s in terms of stealth, sensing, weapons integration, computing, and range, then the question of “mass” becomes more critical. In any large-scale engagement, the US would need the ability to mass its high-tech fleet of B-21 bombers.  

Bomber Concepts of Operation and B-21 Raider

This is also significant given that the mission of the B-21 Raider bomber has continued to evolve and take on new Concepts of Operation. The aircraft will not only function as a flying command and control center or “node” in the sky for force networking, but it will also control groups of unmanned systems from safe stand-off regions. 

B-21 Raider. Image Credit: Northrop Grumman

B-21. Image Credit: Northrop Grumman

About the Author: Kris Osborn 

Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Written By

Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19 FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. dan mullock

    January 15, 2025 at 7:07 pm

    The US does not need a bomber theoretically capable of operating in defended air space. Since the advent of the somewhat stealthy bomber B1B in the 1980’s, the entire inventory of B1’s and B2’s have not been used for a combat mission into defended airspace more than ten times, as far as i can tell. So if in 35 years there has been no need to use such a capability why do we need to recapitalize this asset base? B1’s and B2’s have flown many combat missions as bomb trucks and fly the flag missions but not into high quality anti-air environments. And the increasing trend to get stealthy and long range missiles that can be launched far outside the range of the protected target make our bomber force increasingly moot. It is no surprise to me that China might be fielding a stealthy, midsize regional bomber, a kind of stealthy F-111. That seems a much more practical option compared to the few, large and incredibly expensive B21’s.

  2. Steve

    January 21, 2025 at 3:19 pm

    It seems odd that there is no mention of ongoing updates to the B-52 that are supposed keep it active until the year 3000 or so.

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