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Turkey and HTS: A New Era of Extremism in Syria?

AK-47. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
AK-47. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024, Syria is now controlled by an alliance of opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). While there has been a concerted effort by HTS leadership and other regional powers to portray the group as a moderate and capable governing body, it is at its core a Salafi-jihadist terrorist group with a clear objective of ruling under an extremist interpretation of Islam. HTS is a threat to the stability of the Middle East, broadly defined.

Turkey, a longstanding backer of jihadist Syrian opposition groups, most notably the so-called “Syrian National Army” (SNA) and HTS, previously expressed discomfort with their ties to al-Qaeda and made several unsuccessful attempts to weed out the coalition’s terrorist segments. In the wake of Assad’s fall, Ankara has shed any attempt to distance itself from HTS, and has thrown its weight behind the victorious rebel group in an apparent attempt to position Turkey as the dominant foreign power in Syria.

Turkey Role in Toppling Assad

There is decent circumstantial evidence to indicate Turkey was a major force behind HTS’ toppling of Assad. Footage of HTS fighters, demonstrating enhanced military and drone capabilities, suggest that Turkey may have been providing logistical backing and even advanced weaponry. Iranian officials told Reuters that Assad had complained to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on December 2nd, less than a week before his government collapsed, that Turkey was actively supporting Sunni rebels in their efforts to topple him.  Within a few days of the Assad regime’s overthrow, Ankara reestablished diplomatic representation in Syria, with Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, paying personal visits to HTS leadership in Damascus.

How “Moderate” is HTS?

Although the victory of HTS over Assad has been heralded as an optimistic turning point for Syria, it is imperative to not lose sight of the fact that the group’s end goals have always been shaped by a commitment to armed jihad. HTS was founded and grew out of terrorist groups, an origin story that can be traced back to the beginning of the Syrian Civil War and is integral to their identity.

In July 2011, Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi, then-leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), dispatched Abu Mohammed al-Jolani to spearhead al-Qaeda’s entry into Syria.  Jolani formally announced the establishment of AQI’s new Syrian offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) or Nusrah Front in January 2012.  By December of that year, the U.S. State Department added JN to the existing terrorist designation of AQI, acknowledging that the group was a direct offshoot of al-Qaeda. JN claimed nearly 600 attacks in Syria in its first year of operations, using predominantly suicide and improvised explosive device operations. According to the State Department, JN “sought to portray itself as part of the legitimate Syrian opposition while it is, in fact, an attempt by AQI to hijack the struggles of the Syrian people for its own malign purposes.” 

HTS, which continues to be led by Jolani, was officially created in 2017 when JN merged with other anti-regime groups in northwestern Syria. The new organization disavowed any links to al Qaeda, mainly because it wanted to avoid being militarily targeted by the U.S. and Russia. In May 2018, the U.S. State Department added HTS to the Nusra Front’s existing designation as a foreign terrorist organization. Despite attempts by HTS to distance itself from al-Qaeda or the associations of JN with terrorism, the United Nations continues to describe HTS “as a vehicle to advance [JN’s] position in the Syrian insurgency and further its own goals as [al-Qaeda’s] affiliate in Syria.”

Turkish Support of HTS and other Jihadist Entities

The rapid advance of HTS in late 2024 that precipitated the fall of the Assad government was likely due– in part–- to support from Turkey. There are strong indications that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan provided assistance to the HTS in the lead up to its most recent advance, in the form of arms and by allowing the group to run a key border crossing in northwest Syria. Ties between Turkey and HTS run deep. Turkey’s clear siding with HTS is fully in line with Erdogan’s overall strategy in Syria, where he has been committed to precipitating regime change since the beginning of the Syrian Civil War in 2011.

Turkey’s changing calculus in Syria and abandonment of a once friendly ally in Assad can be explained by Erdogan’s assessment that the existing Syrian regime was on the verge of collapse amidst the wave of successful Arab Spring uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. However, below the surface, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have always been driven by sectarianism and regional ambitions.  As the situation in Syria deteriorated, Turkey saw an opportunity to help install a Sunni regime—one that would be loyal to Ankara and might even be influenced by its own Muslim Brotherhood doctrine. 

The Turkish regime found a natural kinship with the largely Sunni Syrian opposition, which strove to topple the minority Alawite Assad regime. Turkey helped create and mobilize the Free Syrian Army (FSA-later renamed as the Syrian National Army) and other opposition groups in the early phases of the conflict. In October 2011, Turkey’s involvement intensified with the establishment of the Syrian National Council (SNC) in Istanbul in an effort to bring together the disparate Syrian opposition factions under an umbrella that would attract assistance from the West. Although the SNC brought together a mix of several factions of the Syrian opposition, it was dominated by the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. 

Erdogan’s Plans for Syria’s Kurds

Ankara’s involvement in Syria is also closely linked to Turkey’s fears of Kurdish separatism. As conflict raged on in Syria, Turkey became increasingly concerned about the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish zone in northern Syria near the Turkish border led by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF, the United States’ main partner in the fight against the Islamic State, is viewed by Ankara as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984. The Turkish government has used the Syrian rebellion against Assad as a cover to push Ankara-friendly opposition forces into Kurdish positions with the ultimate goal of pushing the SDF east of the Euphrates river and eventually destroying the coalition entirely.

Overt Turkish Support for Syrian Jihadist Groups

By mid-2012, Turkish involvement in Syria quickly devolved into overt support for terrorism. Extremist groups quickly became discernible among the Syrian opposition, with Jabhat al-Nusra becoming a major player. These known terrorist organizations came to depend on Turkey’s permissive border policies for their survival.  In October and November 2012, FSA officials began reporting to Washington that jihadists were crossing back and forth, while Turkish border guards simply looked the other way.  Turkey’s complicity in the empowerment of jihadist groups extended well beyond turning a blind eye, including reports in 2012 that Turkey had set up a secret base with Saudi Arabia and Qatar to direct military and communications equipment to Syria’s rebels from a city near the border. 

By September 2013, Jabhat al-Nusra was said to have 7,000 to 8,000 militants fighting in Syria. Approximately one-quarter of these fighters were foreign jihadists, who reportedly crossed into Syria from Turkey. By December 2013, JN and other extremist groups had gained even more ground in Syria and had successfully weakened the influence of other more pragmatic groups among the opposition. The alarm over these extremist groups was such that the U.S. and the UK announced a temporary suspension of certain aid to the Syrian opposition. By 2017, HTS had become the dominant Islamist militia fighting the Assad regime and was reported to have up to 10,000 fighters.  The group’s base of power in Idlib in northwest Syria and control over a key border crossing there with Turkey played an outsized role in allowing the group to train and prepare for its successful advance across Syria late last year.

Turkey remained ambiguous about its views of jihadist groups among the opposition, particularly JN and now HTS. In an interview a few days after the UN officially designated the group as a terrorist organization in May 2013, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu told reporters “Jabhat al-Nusra is the result of the quagmire there… declaring them a terrorist organization has resulted in more harm than good.” Turkey did officially cave to international pressure and designated JN as a terrorist organization in June 2014, but it continued to maintain a pragmatic “peer-to-peer” relationship with HTS and other JN affiliates in Syria. In 2018, HTS reportedly pledged to help Turkey fight the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the largest Kurdish militia in the SDF, in exchange for Turkey’s acceptance of HTS’ territorial control of Idlib. 

A Pathway for Washington

As outgoing Biden administration officials quietly update their resumes, Washington must face the uncomfortable truth: while Turkish-backed jihadists may have helped dislodge the Assad regime, they are paving the way for another authoritarian and extremist government.

Erdogan’s motives extend beyond ideology. Ankara seeks to install a pliable regime in Damascus, one that aligns with Turkey’s strategic interests. Turkey is prepared to offer military aid, training, and reconstruction support, along with lucrative contracts for Turkish firms. Erdogan also wants HTS to assist in eliminating the SDF, reinforcing his tough-on-terrorism image domestically.

Currently, Erdogan is amassing troops along Turkey’s border with Syria. Turkish air support has already aided the Syrian National Army, and a full-scale military incursion appears imminent. If Washington fails to act decisively, it must brace for the consequences of Erdogan’s unchecked ambitions.

Israel, too, is watching closely. A recent report by Israel’s Nagel Commission warned of the dangers posed by stronger ties between Turkey and a jihadist-led Syrian government. Such an alliance, the report cautioned, could fast-track the emergence of a Syrian-Turkish threat.

The question is no longer whether Erdogan will act but what the United States and its allies will do to prevent a disaster. Time is running out.

About the Authors: 

Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Turkey Program and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). Follow Sinan on Twitter @SinanCiddi. Sophia Epley is an intern at FDD.

Sinan Ciddi is a non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Turkey Program and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). Follow Sinan on Twitter @SinanCiddi. Sophia Epley is an intern at FDD.

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