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Yes, Donald Trump Could End the War in Ukraine

Ukraine
Ukrainian "Hurricane" jet artillery cannons fire during exercises at the firing ground near the small village of Devichki, some 90 km west of Kiev, April 17, 1997. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Recent statements made by President Donald Trump and his National Security Advisor Mike Walz indicate that a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin about a conclusion to the Russo-Ukrainian war is being organized. Trump’s willingness to revive diplomatic channels with Russia will likely succeed in accelerating a peace agreement, but he will have to account for Moscow’s longer timeline when negotiating a settlement.

What a Ukraine-Russia Deal Could Look Like 

During his interview with Tucker Carlson last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that the terms of a peace deal signed with Ukraine would have to resemble those drafted in Istanbul in April 2022. 

As summarized by Lavrov, these entailed “no NATO, but security guarantees to Ukraine, collectively provided with the participation of Russia,” which “would not cover Crimea or the east of Ukraine.” Putin has also cited the West’s rejection of the Istanbul agreements as part of a plan to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.

The Vance Vision on Ukraine Peace 

Vice President JD Vance’s vision for Ukraine presents opportunities for dialogue with Moscow. 

In his view, the warring parties would freeze the conflict in its current state—solidifying Russia’s control over both Crimea and Ukraine’s eastern territories—and establish a demilitarized zone to deter Moscow from attacking again in the future. 

Trump may pair this plan with continued military aid to Ukraine if it agrees to negotiate.

Room for A Deal? 

There thus appear to be several points where Trump and his advisors align with Putin, which bodes well for a more rapid end to the conflict.

Perhaps the most critical alignment concerns the infeasibility of Ukrainian membership in NATO. The United States has been sending aid to Ukraine for decades—with a significant increase after Russia’s annexation of Crimea—suggesting that American military funding for Ukraine is not the primary factor that provoked Russia to invade. 

Rather, as frequently emphasized in Russian statements, public insinuations that Ukraine was being considered for NATO membership were the main cause of the conflict. Since Trump has reportedly expressed opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine, this could facilitate negotiations with Moscow.

No Quick Deal on Ukraine for Putin 

However, as Kyiv continues to endure heavy losses in the Donetsk region and struggles to assemble experienced soldiers to counter Russian offensives, it is unlikely that Putin will want to rush to a peace agreement. 

This is supported by the Kremlin’s approval of a historic surge in defense spending expected to last until 2027. This spending includes more than just the direct flow of weapons to the frontlines. It will also cover defense personnel salaries, which have not always been adequately paid since the start of the war.

Ultimately, if Putin assesses that his position on the battlefield is in his favor and that the 2025 military budget will allow him to reinforce his gains, he may try to bide time before signing a peace deal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not enjoy the same flexibility as his Russian counterpart when it comes to imposing his own timeline in a settlement. The repercussions of any instability in Ukraine following a peace deal that antagonizes Zelenskyy’s entourage, however, will be relevant for Washington. 

Why Peace Might Be Possible Now

After Russia launched its invasion against Ukraine, official communications between Moscow and Washington became extremely limited, with exceptions made for emergency military matters like the recent Russian use of its Oreshnik missile and the exchange of hostages. Trump and Vance’s willingness to engage with Russia is likely being interpreted by the Kremlin as a sign that a sustainable end to the conflict that accounts for all sides’ interests is possible. It remains unclear whether Putin has calculated that the losses that he has incurred on the battlefield are enough to pursue a settlement rather than prolonging the war.

M777 like used in Ukraine.

U.S. Marines with India Battery, Battalion Landing Team 3rd Battalion, 1st Marine Regiment, 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, fire an M777A2 Lightweight Howitzer during MEU Exercise 14 aboard Camp Pendleton, Calif., Nov. 17, 2014. The purpose of MEUEX is to train the different elements of the 15th MEU to work together to complete various missions. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Jamean R. Berry/Released). Such weapons are also used in Ukraine.

As Trump’s appointments point to a more hawkish foreign policy vis-à-vis China, it is in his interest to cultivate a more stable relationship with Russia. Exhaustive Western sanctions and attempts to isolate Russia from the diplomatic stage contributed to Russia’s rapprochement with China. This endowed Beijing with a reliable oil and gas exporter bent on accelerating de-dollarization and drawing the Global South away from Western institutions. Moscow’s long-term ambitions to undermine American influence abroad may not change dramatically as a result of Trump’s pragmatism, but they could be tempered. 

If the Trump administration succeeds in pioneering a solution to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that demonstrates a willingness to reopen diplomatic channels with Russia while protecting Ukraine’s security after the ceasefire, this could significantly contribute to Washington’s long-awaited pivot to Asia. With such high stakes for the United States and two countries that recognize the strain of a prolonged war—but are unprepared to meet face-to-face—the Trump administration can achieve peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war

About the Author: 

Axel de Vernou is a senior at Yale University majoring in Global Affairs and History with a Certificate of Advanced Language Study in Russian. He is a Research Assistant at the Yorktown Institute.

Written By

Axel de Vernou is a senior at Yale University majoring in Global Affairs and History with a Certificate of Advanced Language Study in Russian. He is a Research Assistant at the Yorktown Institute.

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