One forlorn regret that gnaws at some policymakers in Washington and Brussels is NATO enlargement and how growing the alliance may have led Vladimir Putin to order an invasion of Ukraine.
The growth of NATO wasn’t Putin’s most significant concern. He has wanted to restore Russia’s empire and prestige for decades, and ultimately, adding Ukraine to Russia by force was the most critical part of this strategy. The NATO issue enraged and stunned him and could have pushed him over the top when it decided to attack Ukraine.
Countries Behind the Iron Curtain Join NATO
Russia disbanded its Warsaw Pact alliance system after the Cold War ended, and Putin, even before he led the Kremlin, believed that NATO should also have been curtailed and not have grown larger. President Bill Clinton had other ideas and supported the admission of Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary to NATO in 1998. At the time, Boris Yeltsin was president of Russia, and he also had misgivings about the growing alliance.
Prescient Observers Warned of Trouble
Famed diplomat and architect of the Cold War containment strategy, George Kennan, warned in 1998 that expanding NATO was a bad idea. “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else,” Kennan told the New York Times.
Panic About the Baltic Countries Joining
Many Russians were enraged when NATO-led a bombing campaign against Moscow’s ally Serbia in 1999. When Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004, Putin was beside himself. Latvia is located close to Russia and there are many Russian compatriots who live in the Baltics.
Putin Goes Ballistic
By 2007, Putin could take it no more. In a bitter address to the Munich Security Conference, the Russian dictator piled on the West and pointed the finger at the growing alliance. “NATO has put its frontline forces on our borders,” Putin stated. “NATO expansion represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what happened to the assurances our Western partners made after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?”
Russian Fear Ukraine and Georgia Joining
Later, the United States and some European leaders supported NATO membership in Ukraine and Georgia. Putin was further angered, especially by Ukraine’s possible ascension, which many Russians considered to be a “fake country” that rightfully belongs to Russia. The Americans were also sending troops to Romania and Bulgaria.
Another Foreign Policy Expert Predicted Trouble
President George H.W. Bush’s esteemed national security advisor Brent Scowcroft, wrote essays warning as far back as the mid-1990s that Russia would be incensed at NATO enlargement. “To move NATO’s borders closer and closer to Russia and replace the iron curtain with an ‘iron ring’ around Russia – a country scarred by repeated invasions from the West,” Scowcroft observed—would cause “much Russian bitterness.” It would “distract Moscow and Washington from profound common dangers,” such as arms control and nuclear proliferation, and lead a “cornered” Russia to “look East and South for strategic partners,” as summarized by Scowcroft’s biographer Bartholomew Sparrow.
Russian Armata T-14 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
NATO Joiners Were Sovereign States That Every Right to Join NATO
While some Americans of the “realist” camp were against NATO expansion, those skeptics missed important context. Former Soviet Republics and countries behind the Iron Curtain had suffered for decades at the hands of the Kremlin. They yearned to be free and sovereign with high levels of self-governance. They wanted to join NATO for its mutual security benefit. These countries needed security guarantees against Russia. The West was simply accommodating their wishes.
The Possibility of Regime Change in Russia
Meanwhile, the Kremlin was also angered by Western and American attempts to support “Color Revolutions” in Eastern Europe that favored pro-European Union and pro-NATO leaders. Putin and his cronies hated the possibility of regime change that could happen in Russia.
Realists Versus Idealists
Those who supported expansion, such as global freedom-lovers Clinton and President George W. Bush, thought they were doing the right thing then. They were idealists who clashed against realists such as Kennan and Scowcroft. It was also easier for Kennan and Scowcroft to object since they were not policymakers during their naysaying.
Old Russian T-62 Tank Fighting in Ukraine. Image Credit: Twitter.
However, NATO expansion was one factor that deeply disturbed Putin. The alliance’s enlargement was one of the fatal flaws of American and European foreign policy. It put Putin over the edge. He wanted to build his empire to fight back against the West and keep Ukraine as part of Russia’s “Near Abroad.” Putin believed that Ukraine was Russian property, and he may have invaded anyway despite NATO enlargement.
Amazingly, Kennan and Scowcroft predicted that enlarging NATO would have dire consequences. They saw through the heady days after the Cold War ended and approached the issue with steely grit and clear eyes. They recommended the West not take a victory lap and realized that Russia would still try to maximize power after the Soviet Union collapsed. If they were alive today, they would have likely said I told you so, and they would have been mostly correct about NATO.
More members in the alliance that encroached on the Russian borders was just too much for Putin, and it set him over the edge toward the decision to invade Ukraine.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
