Key Points and Summary: Three years into the Ukraine war, Germany’s military remains underfunded and underprepared despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s €100 billion Zeitenwende pledge.
-Slow procurement, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and uncertainty over future funding leave the Bundeswehr ill-equipped for modern warfare.
-While Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has pushed for war readiness by 2029, Germany’s ability to sustain high-intensity combat remains in doubt.
-With the center-right Christian Democrats poised to take power, leader Friedrich Merz has called for doubling defense investment.
-However, political compromises may limit these ambitions. While Germany’s military future remains uncertain, upcoming leadership changes could bring renewed commitment to defense.
Why Germany’s Military Struggles Despite Billions in Defense Spending
We’re now three years into the largest war in Europe since 1945, and Germany, the giant of the Cold War, is a mere shadow of its former self — this despite an enormous cash injection into the Bundeswehr.
The problems run deep: future funding uncertainty and sagging recruitment numbers have been difficult problems.
Shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2018, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a Zeitenwende, or turning point, during a speech in which he pledged €100 billion to revive the Bundeswehr. Procurement, however, has been slow, and Germany’s infamous bureaucracy has slowed progress. Manpower and ammunition have both been problematic areas.
Impressive though the €100 billion fund is, much of it has been spent on big-ticket — though still important — items like the American-made F-35 stealth fighter.
As part of Germany’s NATO nuclear sharing obligations, it opted for the stealth fighter to replace Germany’s aged Tornado fighters, which are qualified to fire the American nuclear weapons that NATO relies upon. While important, these jets don’t solve structural problems with the Bundeswehr.
Some Investments, Some Speeches, Little to Show, and an Uncertain Future
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who took that position in early 2023, has been much more proactive than his predecessor, Christine Lambrecht, who was widely lambasted for her tone-deaf messaging and ineffectual leadership.
One of Pistorius’ most notable projects has been the initiative to station German troops abroad on a permanent basis in Lithuania to shore up NATO’s eastern flank in the Baltics. Preparations are still being made for that deployment, but it marks the first time since the Second World War that German troops have been permanently stationed abroad (German troops have been stationed elsewhere abroad, though as part of a multinational rotational forces).
But despite these efforts, the German military is far from becoming, in Pistorius’ words, Kriegstüchtig, or fit for war. His speech in the German Bundestag last year urged action, calling for war readiness by 2029.
But despite the speeches, the German military today is far from being Kriegstüchtig.
Reports from inside the German military, as well as broader NATO assessments, cast doubt on Berlin’s ability to sustain the Bundeswehr during the kinds of high-intensity operations seen now in Ukraine.
And despite the €100 billion shot announced by Chancellor Scholz, when that fund runs out, likely next year or in 2027, normal defense budget levels will likely see German defense spending dip below the current NATO 2 percent threshold, and marring Germany’s military credibility within the alliance.
“Zeitenwende might have entered the transatlantic vernacular,” one commentator said, “but a year in, it’s become clear that the best way to describe Scholz’s much-ballyhooed slogan is with a blunt Americanism: bullshit.” However, there may be a change on the horizon.
Out with the Old, in with the New
With Germany’s political leadership poised to change dramatically following federal elections and the center-right Christian Democrat win, change is likely in store for the trajectory of German defense.
KF-51 Tank from Germany. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democrats, has voiced full-throated support for Ukraine and called for more investment in the Bundeswehr.
Recent scuttlebutt suggests that Merz’s party would like to double the €100 billion special fund to €200 billion or more.
However, with coalition negotiations ongoing, Merz will have to make significant concessions to his coalition patterns in other key policy areas, which could prove a bitter pill to swallow.
So, while the Bundeswehr is in a deep hole at the moment, there is a strong possibility that it will get more secure long-term funding in the near future and consequently.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
