Key Points and Summary: Germany’s military readiness has long been a weak spot in NATO, with low defense spending and slow procurement cycles. A 2023 report from the Kiel Institute estimates that at current production rates, it would take until 2066 to restore the Luftwaffe’s 2004 combat aircraft levels and until 2121 for artillery.
Key Point #1 – Meanwhile, Russia is rapidly expanding its military, dedicating 43% of its budget to the war effort.
Key Point #2 – European defense analysts warn that if U.S. support for Ukraine diminishes, Europe would need 300,000 soldiers and massive new arms production to counter Russia—an unlikely scenario given Europe’s historically limited military investment.
Germany’s Military Readiness Crisis: Can NATO Rely on Berlin?
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski likes to relate a humorous moment from a NATO event that occurred during the 2013-2019 tenure of Dr. Ursula von der Leyen as head of Germany’s MoD. One of his German colleagues took him aside and pointed across the room to the CDU politician and told him:
“Do you see that woman over there,” asked his German colleague. “That’s our defense minister. She has more children than the Luftwaffe currently have serviceable aircraft.”
This was early on in her time in this position. During the first year she headed the ministry there were no small number of setbacks with Germany’s military establishment. Only 42 of the Luftwaffe’s 109 Eurofighter Typhoons and 38 of 89 of the Tornado fighters were available deployment – an availability rate of well below 50 per cent.
An external report on problems in the military previously ordered before and completed after she became the defense minister revealed cost overruns in the billions of Euros.
Moreover, all nine of the Bundeswehr’s major projects experienced delays of 30 to 360 months.
Symbolic Defense Spending for Germany
The report’s findings illustrated what politicians in Washington, DC, and the capitals of other NATO nations have been complaining about for years.
Despite being the economic powerhouse of the EU, Germany’s military outlays are more like that of a nation with an economy half its size.
Some would say its defense production rates are close to anemic – almost symbolic.
It gets worse from here. One of Germany’s most influential non-governmental think tanks is the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The institute keeps a close watch on defense procurement in Germany, mainly as it compares with the growing increases of Russia’s military budget. A report that the institute compiled last September projected how many years it would take Berlin’s military to reach the inventory levels of weapons it possessed in 2004.
The numbers were startling. To reach the number of combat aircraft the Luftwaffe had in 2004 at current production rates would take from now until 2066. To restore the fleet numbers for Main Battle Tanks (MBT) the Bundeswehr had in the same year would take until 2038. The replenishment date for Infantry Fighting Vehicles is 2043 and for artillery howitzers it is 2121, and so on.
“Russia’s manufacturing capacity has grown to the point where it can produce the equivalent of the Bundeswehr’s entire arsenal in just over half a year,” reads the same report.
Anaemic Procurement vs. All-Out Wartime Production
In comparison, at last check, some 43 percent of Moscow’s annual budget is geared towards spending on the war and funding the secret police apparatus to keep control of the Russian population.
Funding streams for other defense projects are concealed in the budgets of several other agencies and ministries, such as Rosatom, the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation.
A report from one of Poland’s leading think tanks, the Institute for Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Warsaw, concludes the Kremlin’s 2025 budget demonstrates Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “determination to wage war regardless of the costs and growing economic challenges.”
Another finding of the same report is that Vladimir Putin hopes the West’s readiness to support Kyiv will run out faster than Russia’s financial resources.
More recently, the same Kiel Institute has produced a detailed estimate of what would be required from European nations to defend themselves if the US were to scale back its military aid for the Ukraine war dramatically.
Germany Leopard 2 Tank
The assessment reads that Europe would have to mobilize 300,000 soldiers to defend itself against Russia without the USA. European nations would be required to produce “1,400 new main battle tanks and 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles. This is greater than today’s inventories of the entire German, French, Italian, and British land forces.” Europe would also have to produce “around 2,000 long-range drones every year.”
Given that this level of defense spending is entirely out of character for the European nations in this century, Putin has reasonable cause to be confident that he can build weapons and mobilize soldiers fast enough to overwhelm all of Europe.
German Leopard 2 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
