Could We Ever See A Draft Again In the US Military?: The US military ended conscription in 1973 and has been with the All-Volunteer Force (AVF) for 52 years. However, all US males ages 18 to 25 must still register with the Selective Service System in the event a draft is ever needed again.
Many forget that the all-volunteer force was always intended to be supported by a standby draft. That being said, political leaders, military leaders, and, perhaps more importantly, the American public should understand that conscription is and must necessarily be the option of last resort.
But could the military reintroduce the draft? Events in Congress a year ago have opened up that question and, in some cases, panic among the American public, worrying that it is imminent. It is not imminent.
This all stemmed from a headline from a Sept. 25, 2023, article from the Mises Institute, a libertarian group in Alabama, that reads: “The US Military Is Laying the Groundwork to Reinstitute the Draft.”
Of course, at the end of the piece, the author calls for the US standing army to be abolished.
What Is The Groundwork For Reinstating the Draft?
The Selective Service System (SSS) says that while there is currently no draft, “in the event of a national emergency which required a draft, the following sections provide information on the Sequence of Events, the different Classifications which have been used in the past, Postponements, Deferments, and Exemptions, and the peacetime Medical Draft.”
The Selective Service’s website lists the sequence of events, draftee classifications, and exemptions.
Would the US Abide By A New Draft?
Conscription is a dirty word right now in many circles in the US. Even among some of our adversaries, conscription, even a limited one, sent young people racing to leave Russia at the outset of the “special military operation” in Ukraine.
In the US, it even spawned conspiracy theories, no doubt perpetrated by our enemies, to sow division in our society, of which there is already too much.
It stemmed from misrepresenting a bill passed by the House of Representatives that would automatically register men between 18 and 25 for the Selective Service. The bill does not draft or automatically enlist anyone; it simply makes registration automatic instead of requiring each person to do it individually.
Before a draft could be implemented again, it would require that ALL branches of the government agree and the majority of the American population agree. That would be a tough sell to the public unless the US is attacked directly.
Draft Plans Are Out of Date
The government must implement plans to change the out-of-date system for conducting drafts. The Center for a New American Security published a report last June stating that the government is unprepared for a new draft.
The report assumed that a Chinese attack on the United States would create the national emergency needed for the government to reinstate the draft. That would imply that 500,000 induction notices would produce 100,000 inductees to the military services ready to ship to basic training within 193 days.
The report found several flaws: the current 18-25-year-old male population may not produce enough conscripts, there are legal challenges to an all-male draft, and social media plays into the perception of a draft’s unfair implementation.
Debates were also held on whether women should register for the draft.
Ukraine War Serves As a Factor For The Draft
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a classic case of a country facing an existential threat. The Ukrainian government made a choice (right or wrong) that they would draft men aged 27-60 to fight against the Russians (Chechens, North Koreans, et al.). Shortages of able soldiers due to casualties are causing them to reconsider the draft for those who are 25 years old.
The consideration was to save the young men so they could rebuild the country after the war. This compelling argument is being tested.
Could We See A Return of the Draft?
Yes, in the event of a national emergency, again, like China attacking the US preemptively if/when they invade Taiwan. Absolutely, the draft could return in the event of a conflict with near-peer conflict with a power such as China. Chinese missiles will hit US bases across the Pacific and our shipyards in the US.
Not saying nukes are involved because that would be an entirely different scenario. But if China did that, you can rest assured that the other members of the allies of convenience, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, would all get aggressive, knowing that the US can’t react to all scenarios at once.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
