Summary and Key Points: The possibility of reinstating the U.S. military draft remains politically improbable and practically unworkable.
-A draft would generate massive resistance from families and intense pressure on politicians, making implementation nearly impossible.
-Today’s military engagements are smaller in scale, relying on voluntary enlistments, reserves, and national guards rather than mass conscription.
-Even in potential conflicts like with China, large-scale ground forces aren’t necessary.
-Historical inequality in the draft process further discourages revisiting conscription. The current volunteer system has successfully maintained readiness, morale, and fairness, and it’s likely that America will never reinstate a military draft.
Could There Ever Be a Military Draft in the US?
While in graduate school, I was once asked by a local newspaper whether the United States would ever bring back the military draft. This question was posed during the height of the war in Iraq. The media outlet interviewing me was sternly anti-war and showed pictures of dead American soldiers and Marines every day on the front page. I told them that no way would the US government institute a draft. This statement relieved many students in high school and university.
The Draft Is Politically Impossible
Flash forward to 2025, and I still feel that way. There will never again be a draft like there was in the Vietnam War. It is just politically impossible for Congress, policymakers in the executive branch, and the president to institute a draft. One reason is that it would affect the potential draftees in all congressional districts, which means there would be pressure on every member of Congress to refrain from starting a draft.
The parents of the sons and daughters would be negatively affected, and the entire family would probably take to the streets in protest. Draft cards would be burned to symbolically resist the decision.
The Selective Service System Starts the Process
How would a draft even work? There is the Selective Service System that would enforce conscription. The Selective Service System says the following on its website:
“Federal law requires nearly all male US citizens and male immigrants to register at age 18. The agency permits males up to age 25 to complete their registration with Selective Service System. In a national emergency, Selective Service System will use the registry to provide personnel to the Department of Defense and alternative service for conscientious objectors, if authorized by the President and Congress.”
Notice the “authorization” piece of this statement. The Commander-in-Chief and the Congress would have to give permission.
The draft would not be approved by President Donald Trump or his successors. It would be unpopular in Congress, and the media would be against it, too.
Wars are also limited in scope in the 21st century. That means fewer military personnel are needed for deployments compared to the Vietnam era. If more troops are required, the Department of Defense calls up reserve and national guard forces, which is what happened during the Second Iraq War and Afghanistan.
Even a War with China Would Not Need a Draft
What if there were a war with China? A Chinese conflict would likely only involve select ships in the Navy and only some aspects of the Air Force. A ground war with a massive number of soldiers and marines is not likely. Any war with China would be short and decisive, and negotiators would end it quickly.
The US Military Could Not Make It Happen
Plus, there are practical concerns. Over two million men were drafted during Vietnam from 1964 to 1973. The US military is not set up to handle that many recruits. There are not enough bases, barracks, training grounds, and dining facilities to serve that number of new personnel. There are not enough drill instructors, officers, and non-commissioned officers to take on an influx of recruits.
Conscription Is Not Fair
One of the biggest problems with the draft during the Vietnam War was that it wasn’t democratic. It affected people unequally. There were draft deferments and certain exemptions for people who attended college. Men from low-income families who were often minorities were drafted instead of wealthier white students who could afford to attend university. This simply wasn’t fair.
If a draft were ever to be executed, there would likely be exceptions, and wealthy families would find a way to either keep their children from being conscripted or have them assigned to rear-echelon duties. Again, this would be an unequal system.
The volunteer military has worked well for the United States. The military draft ended in 1973, and since then, you only served if you wanted to. I raised my right hand to enlist in the Army, and it worked out well for me. Those who choose to serve are motivated by various benefits and incentives to stay in the service to honor their enlistment contracts. Draftees are often unhappy and do not want to be there.
Hence, a military draft would be politically unpopular. It is not democratic. People would avoid it. Wealthy and politically connected children would somehow be exempt or assigned to rear-echelon support roles. It is not possible with the current military infrastructure and force requirements.
Let’s keep the volunteer system. It has worked well for decades. People who serve should choose the profession under their own willpower and not be conscripted against their will. No military draft will ever happen again for these reasons. It’s just a bad idea.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
