Summary and Key Points: The new sixth-generation F-47, known as NGAD, represents a quantum leap in airpower, boasting stealth, artificial intelligence integration, hypersonic capability, and drone control features. However, its export remains uncertain.
The Threat to Europe: Selling the F-47 NGAD abroad would dramatically outclass European fighters like the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon, potentially making them obsolete.
Dassault Rafale. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-But with its high cost, advanced technology risks, and strategic implications, the U.S. government may block overseas sales.
-Consequently, European nations would likely continue operating Rafale, Typhoon, and affordable F-35 fighters, maintaining interoperability and regional defense capabilities, while the revolutionary F-47 stays exclusively in American hands—reshaping air dominance without leaving NATO partners behind.
Would the F-47 Be Sold Overseas and Make European Fighters Obsolete?
The F-47, also known as the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, has the aerospace world mesmerized. While previously discussed at great lengths by many defense media outlets for years, it wasn’t clear whether this program would get the green light by the Donald Trump administration. Now that everyone has digested the positive news, what does that mean for the competition?
It Depends On Whether the U.S. Approves the F-47 for Export
This airframe is a 6th-generation ultra-stealth warbird that will change how we look at aviation. Does that mean it renders 4th and 4.5th-generation airplanes, particularly European models such as the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon, obsolete? Yes and No. Yes, if the F-47, meant to replace the F-22 Raptor, is made available for export, but no, if the NGAD is excluded from international sales.
International Sales Would Take a High Amount of Decision-making Brain Power
It is unclear what Boeing—or the Military—has in mind for the F-47 when it comes to exporting. The defense contractor wants to sell as many as possible to increase revenue and pad the bottom line. What about the inclinations of the U.S. Department of Defense and the Department of State?
Many policymakers will be involved in the decision to export the F-47. Congress would have a say, too, and it could be a quandary that would have to pass White House scrutiny – even the president could get involved with the decision.
The F-47 Will Be a Jewel in the Crown
The F-47 program is highly advanced and has audacious goals. This airplane will be a “system or family of systems” that can be easily upgraded—likely with artificial intelligence in the cockpit that can learn from each mission and be equipped with a large language model chatbot that can alert the pilot to dangers by “talking” to the aviator.
The F-47 will be nuclear-capable and able to carry hypersonic weapons. It will be fast—at minimum, able to reach MACH 2 and probably have a top speed of near MACH 3. It can fly as a “drone quarterback” to operate the unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft for better targeting, electronic warfare ability, and the means to collect reconnaissance data. The F-47 could possibly fly into near space and use lasers to eliminate enemy satellites.
Could European Air Forces Afford It?
With all these capabilities, European air forces would love to buy it if the price fits their budgets. But I don’t see this airplane costing below $100 million a unit, which could have a $200 million price tag. That may be too steep for NATO members. The F-35 would be cheaper.
But let’s say it does sell overseas, which brings the F-47 to a more affordable price. This production benefit would make the F-47 able to outclass the Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale easily. These airplanes would not be able to compete with the F-47.
ATLANTIC OCEAN (July 19, 2008) A French F-2 Rafale fighter prepares to launch during combined French and American carrier qualifications aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71). This event marks the first integrated U.S. and French carrier qualifications aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier. The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group is participating in Joint Task Force Exercise “Operation Brimstone” off the Atlantic coast until the end of July. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Christopher Hall/Released)
However, the Typhoons and Rafales have excellent interoperability with NATO allies. They have a friendly cockpit and multi-role capabilities and are more affordable than the F-47.
No Dice for Foreign Air Forces Buying the F-47
However, they are not stealthy. The two airplanes would only be effective as homeland protectors and conducting air policing missions. The Europeans would rather have the F-47 someday. However, I don’t see the NGAD being available for overseas sales.
There are just too many advanced technologies that could get into the wrong hands – think Russia taking out an F-47 if they entered into a shooting war with Vladimir Putin’s air force. That would be disastrous if the Russians could recover some of the airplane wreckage and copy or reverse-engineer the whiz-bang features.
Just Buy the F-35 Instead
So again, we are back to the export question for the F-47. Selling the NGAD would be good for Boeing but perhaps not for the U.S. military. Even if the only advantage to the F-47 is better stealthiness, that would be reason enough to disallow exports.
F-47 Fighter from U.S. Air Force.
However, with all the other interesting technologies, Congress will probably ban international sales. If this happens, the Rafale and Typhoon are still in business as multi-role fighters that can make a difference flying over Europe. If NATO members are not satisfied with those models, they can always buy an F-35, which would be advantageous for Lockheed Martin and all the jobs created by the Lightning II manufacturing.
Thus, the Dassault Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon are obsolete if the NGAD is sold in Europe. Partners could stick with the F-35 or upgrade to the F-47 if international sales are approved. I don’t see that happening, and Europe could be stuck with only 4th-generation, 4.5-generation, or 5th-generation fighters.
The 6th-generation F-47 will only be available to the United States unless Boeing successfully lobbies Congress and the executive branch to allow overseas sales for the NGAD—a difficult proposition—and not likely to be a successful effort.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
