Pakistan’s Nukes, An Even Bigger Threat Than Iran?: The United States, Israel, and much of Western Europe have long worked together to ensure Iran doesn’t get its hands on a nuclear weapon. But there is another country just as dangerous as Iran that already has 175 nuclear warheads, and could have as many as 250 by the end of the decade: Pakistan.
Pakistan is one of the shakiest regimes in Western Asia. Ruled by a coalition of politicians and military leaders, the government never seems to have a firm hold on the country and has been dealing with domestic terrorism for a long time.
The United States’ biggest fear is that jihadis flush from success in next-door Afghanistan might try to take over Pakistan with its nuclear stockpile.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Obama’s Words Were Spot On In 2010
At a summit in April 2010, just a year before he sent Navy SEALs and Army Special Operations aviators into Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden, then-U.S. President Barack Obama spoke at a summit in Washington and chose his words very carefully.
Although he was officially speaking to then-South African President Jacob Zuma, his words were directed to others in the room as well.
“The single biggest threat to U.S. security, both short term, medium term, and long term,” he stated, “would be the possibility of a terrorist organization obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
Pakistan Was Double-Dealing From Jump Street
The whole time the U.S. was propping up the weak central government of Afghanistan, the Taliban were working through and with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI) to overthrow the Kabul regime.
It is worth noting as well that bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad, Pakistan, literally down the street from Pakistan’s military academy.
Distrust of the Pakistanis was so high at the time that Obama chose not to tell the government that the raid was about to happen, for fear that they would tip off bin Laden and he would escape again.
The US Had A Plan to Take Over Pakistani Nukes
The U.S. knew about Pakistan’s double-dealing early on in the two sides’ alliance of convenience. But they didn’t realize how tight the ISI’s connection with the Taliban was until later.
So concerned was the U.S. government of a terrorist group gaining control of Pakistan’s nukes that it developed a plan to quickly and cleanly take control of those weapons using the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC). Washington’s fears were well-founded. Pakistani officials were more afraid of the US seizing control of the nukes than jihadi terrorists.
During Senate hearings for her confirmation as Secretary of State in 2005, then-National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice was asked by Sen. John Kerry what would happen to Pakistan’s nukes in the event of an Islamist coup in Islamabad. “We have noted this problem, and we are prepared to try to deal with it,” Rice said.
Pakistan’s Chief Architect of Its Nukes Sold Info To Iran, North Korea
The foundation of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program was aided by the theft of nuclear technology and know-how from the European company URENCO by scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, who became a leading figure in Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons establishment.
Khan is also believed to have received a nuclear-weapon design from China, according to U.S. intelligence.
Khan developed a black-market network of suppliers to procure technology and information for Pakistan’s then-secret nuclear weapons program, and then he transformed that network into a supply chain for other states.
Iran, Libya, and North Korea were all clients. After the interception of one of his shipments to Libya in October 2003, Khan appeared on Pakistani television in February 2004 and confessed to running the network, which transferred items ranging from centrifuges to bomb designs.
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal
The Pakistani government has never publicly disclosed the size of its arsenal and does not typically comment on its nuclear doctrine. But they are believed to have 170 nuclear warheads. They have claimed in the past that their doctrine states they will only use nuclear weapons after being attacked, never in a first strike.
Unlike some other nuclear-armed states, Pakistan does not regularly publish any official documentation explaining the contours of its nuclear posture or doctrine.
Whenever such details emerge in the public discourse, it usually originates from retired officials commenting in their personal capacities. The most regular official source on Pakistani nuclear weapons is the Inter Services Public Relations, the media wing of the Pakistan Armed Forces, which publishes regular press releases for missile launches and occasionally couples them with launch videos.
Nuclear Missiles That Can Reach the US?
On December 19, 2024, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer announced that Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities “to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.”
The U.S. worries about Pakistan’s intentions. Washington understands the country’s existential need for nuclear weapons, since Pakistan has lost every war it has fought with India and is much weaker conventionally. But its close ties with China are concerning. And why would the Pakistanis need a long-range weapon when its main enemy, India, is right next door?
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons sit inside a very unstable country. Their potential use springs from a number of different scenarios. Nearly all of them are bad.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
