Although the Russian economy is on a war footing, a vast amount of resources are directed toward the war in Ukraine, leaving little available cash for big-ticket naval projects.
Russia’s Project 23000 aircraft carrier, also known as the Shtorm-class, has been touted several times as a potential future project of the Russian Navy. But, the likelihood of that aircraft carrier ever being built appears slim at best due to the economic pressures within Russia as part of their ongoing war in Ukraine.
While Moscow has prioritized defense spending, that spending has been funneled toward the immediate needs of their war effort, leaving little spending available for long-term projects that would not have a direct bearing on the war.
Project 23000 Aircraft Carrier: Economic Constraints, War Expenditures
The war in Ukraine has put the Russian economy on a wartime footing, with military spending reaching record levels not seen since the Cold War. And while defense spending has dramatically increased, much of the spending goes to producing drones, missiles, artillery shells, and other materiel needed to sustain Russia’s ground war.
Another significant expenditure has been increasingly large signup bonuses to attract recruits in order to avoid a national mobilization, which would be politically a precarious and unpopular decision.
This allocation of financial resources leaves little funding available for expensive defense projects like new aircraft, submarines, or aircraft carriers — one of the most expensive defense projects to date.
Though Russia’s domestic shipbuilding industry would, in theory, have the institutional knowledge, materials, and workforce necessary to build an advanced aircraft carrier, such a resource-intensive project is unlikely to become a reality.
Russia’s Current Needs: The War on Land
Questions of economic limitations aside, the strategic value of an aircraft carrier for Russia today is limited. Aircraft carriers are tools for power projection far away from national borders. Still, given Russia’s difficulties in projecting power against a country it shares a border with, putting a new aircraft carrier into service makes little strategic sense.
Ukrainian forces have enjoyed several significant successes against the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, famously sinking the Moskva Slava-class cruiser in 2022, as well as a number of other vessels of differing size and importance.
In addition to leveraging Western-supplied Harpoon missiles as well as domestically-designed Neptune anti-ship missiles, Ukraine has used unmanned sea drones to push back Russian Navy surface vessels out to sea and away from Ukraine. An aircraft carrier in that highly contested environment would have little strategic value and would require a great deal of resources to protect it.
Admiral Kuznetsov Aircraft Carrier Drama
A more likely scenario would be for Russia to make a concerted effort to overhaul and repair the one aircraft carrier it already has in service, the Admiral Kuznetsov. The lead ship of the Kuznetsov-class, the carrier has experienced several notable issues during its service life and may currently be non-operational. But despite the difficulties the Russian Navy has experienced with that aircraft carrier, overhauling the Admiral Kuznetsov would be a more affordable, quicker, and more realistic option than designing a new carrier from scratch.
Though the Project 23000 carrier has been bandied about as an option in the future, the Russian Navy is currently limited in its ability to procure large new surface vessels as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Given the large amount of money and resources continuing the war, primarily a land war, there is little spare capacity or funding for an aircraft carrier, given the costs and complexities of a project of that scope. Russia is, therefore, unlikely to see another new aircraft carrier entering service in the near future.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
