Donald Trump came into office in January following his first-ever popular vote victory, along with other indications that he was more popular than he ever had been during his first term.
It’s long been expected that Trump’s approval rating might start to drop once he started doing things, and it appears that’s exactly what’s happened.
According to an AP/NORC poll released on March 31, 42 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s performance in office currently, compared to 56 percent who disapprove.
Among Republicans, 82 percent approve, while for Democrats, just 10 percent do. The poll also asks respondents whether they approve of Trump’s performance on certain issues.
Donald Trump: Good on Immigration, Bad on the Economy
On immigration, which has long been Trump’s signature issue, he’s about 50/50, with 49 percent approval and 50 percent disapproval.
On “government spending,” Trump is approved by 46 percent of respondents and disapproved by 51 percent.
On the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 44 percent approve of Trump’s handling and 54 percent said they disapproved. Joe Biden, by the end, was likely disapproved by the vast majority of Americans on this question, regardless of their feelings on the conflict.
Trump is down at 43 percent when it comes to “managing the federal government.”
But the big question is the economy, where in the poll, 40 percent approve of Trump’s approval while 58 percent disapprove. This is especially bad news for Trump, since the economy, and with it inflation and other related issues had a great deal to do with Trump winning the election last year.
And as Trump prepares to announce his “Liberation Day” package of new tariffs, another number in the AP/NORC poll looks alarming for him: On “trade negotiations with other countries,” just 38 percent of respondents approve of him, while 60 percent disapprove.
Not An Outlier
It doesn’t appear that the AP/NORC poll is out of the ordinary or an outlier. According to the RealClearPolling average, Trump’s average approval rating is 47.7 percent approval and 49.9 percent disapproval.
An RMC Research poll in mid-March had Trump’s approval at 52 percent, but that’s higher than every other recent one, although CBS News and Rasmussen polls in the last week of March each had Trump at 50 percent approval.
However, an Economist/YouGov poll, which also ended April 1, had Trump at a 46 percent approval rating.
Trump Polls: How Much Does It Matter?
The big question to ask is how much Trump’s approval rating actually matters.
Trump, for all his protestations about finding a way to serve a third term, cannot constitutionally run for president again, so he won’t be on a presidential ballot ever again. Trump, while often obsessed with how he comes across on TV, isn’t necessarily going to let his job performance be affected by opinion polls.
Unpopularity could hurt Trump in the seemingly endless series of special elections scheduled in the coming months.
We saw that happen this week in Wisconsin when the Republican-backed Supreme Court candidate lost despite, or perhaps because of, Elon Musk’s high-profile insertion of himself into the race. The same night, Republican candidates won a pair of special elections in Florida House races, although both victories came in deep-red districts, formerly held by embattled Trump national security adviser Michael Waltz, and his failed attorney general-designate, Matt Gaetz.
The Tests to Come
Should Trump’s approval rating continue to be sluggish or get worse, it could go on to affect things that likely matter more to him: His Republican Congressional majorities, which could be imperiled in 2026’s midterm elections.
President Donald Trump speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Maryland, on Saturday, February 22, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley
After that will come the runup to the 2028 Republican primaries, in which Trump will not be a competitor for the first time since 2012. And after that will come bigger questions about Trump’s legacy, and whether his chosen successor, whoever it may be, will extoll or repudiate that legacy.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
