Key Points: Canada’s urgent need to replace its aging CF-18 fighters makes waiting for the newly announced US F-47 NGAD impractical.
-The F-47’s projected operational timeline (late 2020s for USAF, later for exports) is too far out for the Royal Canadian Air Force. Canada already selected the F-35 after competition, has ordered the first batch (due 2026), and the aircraft meets its multi-role requirements, including air-to-ground focus.
-The F-35 also ensures NATO interoperability and offers established industrial benefits. Despite current US-Canada political tensions, proceeding with the F-35 program represents the most realistic and timely path for Canadian air force modernization.
-The Royal Canadian Air Force desperately needs to replace its aging fleet of CF-18 fighters. Canada was the first country to sign on with the US for the F-35 program, but successive governments have waffled on the program.
F-47 Time?
With relations between the two countries at an all-time low, the Canadian government is reevaluating the F-35 program and exploring alternative options to reduce its dependency on the United States.
Could the US extend an olive branch to Canada by offering the first foreign sales of the F-47 NGAD? President Trump stated that the US was likely to extend the opportunity for foreign allies to purchase the F-47, unlike the F-22, which was restricted to the US due to technological concerns.
A few questions: Is this a way to better relations with Ottawa? Or would it be possible if relations with Canada were better? And finally, can the RCAF wait that long to get the F-47?
Canada’s Military Is In A Poor State of Readiness
Canada’s CF-18s are aging; some are already past their estimated life cycle. But that is just the tip of the iceberg. The Trudeau government allowed the Canadian military to become irrelevant, and frankly, it is unprepared for threats to its borders.
The strategic environment has shifted dramatically. The Arctic is no longer isolated. The region is an emerging battleground in great power competition. Russia continues to fortify its northern military presence, while China, declaring itself a “near-Arctic state,” is expanding its influence there, which is not in the best interest of Canada or NATO.
Besides the tariff and 51st state talk, Trump has offended Canada with his blunt, straight-shooting assessment of Canada’s defense strategy. Trump is fed up with NATO’s European and North American free riders of security guaranteed by Washington, and Canada stands among the worst offenders.
His second administration has demonstrated that it will not tolerate continued defense apathy. The days of assuming an automatic US security guarantee are over.
Why It Is Unlikely That the RCAF Could Wait For the F-47
Canada must upgrade its military defenses. The F-47 would represent the absolute cutting edge. However, the delay in getting it into Canadian hands may become too long for the Armed Forces to wait.
First, the Canadian government has already chosen the F-35 Lightning II as its replacement for the CF-18. Canada committed to purchasing 88 F-35A Lightning II fighters in 2022. The F-35, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, offers advanced capabilities and enhanced interoperability with allies.
Canada is holding another competition for fighters that the F-35 has already won. The F-35 is more than just a fighter jet; it’s a versatile and advanced platform designed for a wide range of missions, including air superiority, strike operations, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR).
Its advanced sensors, communication systems, and stealth capabilities enable it to operate in contested airspace and serve as a key component of a networked air force, enhancing the capabilities of other air, ground, and maritime assets.
While the first operational F-35s are not expected until 2026, with full fleet capability unlikely before the early 2030s, the F-47 is just now entering initial limited production; it won’t be expected to become operational until 2029.
Canada has already committed to purchasing 16 F-35s, with the option to acquire up to 88. Continuing to prolong the life of its CF-18s is unsustainable and puts its defenses at risk.
The F-35 program offers significant economic benefits to Canada, including jobs and technological advancements. Building some parts of the aircraft inside Canada will boost trade with other NATO nations.
The RCAF’s requirements have shifted to prioritize air-to-ground operations, which the F-35 is designed to excel at.
Waiting for the F-47 sounds great on paper, but the RCAF can’t afford to wait that long. The F-35 is the answer, and they should forget politics for a moment, think of their future, and be pragmatic.
F-35 Photo Essay
An F-35A Lighting II takes off for a Red Flag-Nellis 24-2 night mission at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, March 18, 2024. The presence of the F-35s offers the U.S., Allies, and partners a versatile and highly capable system, enhancing collective defense measures while reinforcing the NATO Alliance’s commitment to leveraging top-tier military capabilities for regional security and deterrence. (U.S. Air Force photo by 1st Lt. Jimmy Cummings)
An F-35 Lightning II assigned to the 62nd Fighter Squadron, Luke Air Force Base, Ariz., sits in a hangar ahead of operations for the F-35 Lightning II TDY, Oct. 28, 2021, at Joint Base San Antonio-Kelly Field, Texas. The 62nd FS will be training with F-16s from the 149th Fighter Wing and the 301st Fighter Wing, along with T-38s from the 301st Fighter Wing. The multi-role capabilities of the F-35 allows them to perform missions which traditionally required numerous specialized aircraft. The complimentary air superiority capabilities of the F-35 will augment our air superiority fleet and ensure we continue to “own the skies” over future battlefields. (U.S. Air Force photo by Brian G. Rhodes)
F-35 Fighter.
An F-35A Lightning II soars over Hill Air Force Base during a demonstration practice Jan. 10, 2020, at Hill AFB, Utah. The F-35 Demo Team is scheduled to perform at 22 airshows during the 2020 season. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II approaches a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 22, 2020. The F-35 Lightning II is an agile, versatile, high-performance, multirole fighter that combines stealth, sensor fusion and unprecedented situational awareness. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Duncan C. Bevan)
U.S. Navy Aviation Boatswain’s Mate (Handling) 3rd Class Nicolas Fareri launches a U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II aircraft with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 off the amphibious assault carrier USS Tripoli (LHA 7) during Valiant Shield 2022 (VS22), June 13, 2022. Exercises such as Valiant Shield allows the Indo-Pacific Command Joint Task Force the opportunity to integrate forces from all branches of service to conduct long-range, precise, lethal, and overwhelming multi-axis, multi-domain effects that demonstrate the strength and versatility of the Joint Task Force and our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Jackson Ricker)
U.S. Air Force Major Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning ll Demonstration Team pilot and commander, flies during sunset over Mathers Airport, Calif., Sept. 24th, 2021, at the California Capital Airshow. The team consists of approximately 15 total Airmen to include the pilot and commander, pilot safety officers, superintendent, team chief, maintenance Airmen, aircrew flight equipment specialists, and public affairs personnel. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Thomas Barley)
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team pilot and commander, flies during the 2021 Reno Air Races, Reno, Nev., Sept. 18, 2021. The 2021 Reno Air Races featured performances from the U.S. Air Force F-35A Demo Team and the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds. (U.S. Air Force photo by Capt. Kip Sumner)
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
dwight looi
May 2, 2025 at 4:07 am
LOL… Canada can join the USA and there won’t be a need to buy anything. If not Canada, then perhaps just Alberta! Seriously though, Canada has no credible defense posture without the USA’s protection. With it, Canada is protected without or without their own F-35, F-47 or even the old F-18s. The problem with Canada and NATO countries in general (with the exception of Poland and a few eastern newcomers ironically) is that they refuse to pull their own weight in defense and has perpetually failed to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense — as obligated under the treaty agreements.
Taking the 30,000 ft view. Whatever tensions exist between the USA and Canada is a matter of trade balance which the Trump administration is prioritizing over political correctness and trade. Canada will be under the US’s umbrella of protection regardless of what they do, but if Canada wants to sell the same amount of products to the USA, they need to buy a like amount of US products or at least substantially more than they do now. It’s called mercantilism and it’s the new world order independently of fighter jet choice or the lack thereof.
Montrose
May 5, 2025 at 11:04 am
We didn’t need the F35 so why would we wait?! We need a new airframe but the F35 is over kill. Canada does not need the best at the cost of high operating expenses and lower numbers in the fleet . We have been affective with the old F18 so anything that’s modern like a Gripen is more than enough.
J. Morton
May 4, 2025 at 6:37 am
Advocating sales of F-47 is. A total act of stupidity. 6 1/2 years ago I met an aircraft worker from Canada who worked on building wings in Vancouver for F-35 jets. He said that plans had gone missing at work and Chinese working at this aircraft plant were suspected!
You advocate giving F-47’s to Canada? Has not the proxie war in Ukraine not taught us anything at all? Russia now has multiple working copies of nearly all of our technologically advanced weapons thanks to very loose controls! No wonder our enemies rapidly are catching up?
Tighter controls and secrecy need to be implemented and we must operate much smarter and stop the. Giveaways. Most of our Allies will safeguard nothing and our defense contractors and Dept of State need to be reined in from rampant giveaways. Weapons sales have long been out of control!
James
May 4, 2025 at 4:49 pm
The F47 to Canada is laughable. Countries with tier 2 or 3 militaries like Canada will not be able to field such sophisticated weapon systems. Besides, Canada’s military needs everything, tanks, artillery, soldiers, ships, infrastructure upgrades, pilots etc etc. And Carney will be worse than Trudeau, if that’s possible, on military spending. He has no stomach for big defense spending and he has seriously boxed himself in with his stupid “elbows up” posture with the US. If Carney keeps this untenable act up, the US should cast Canada off to fend for themselves.
Adrien
May 5, 2025 at 10:31 am
Nice American propaganda. The truth is due to the location of Canada on the map, the only country that could potentially invade us is the USA. Russia will never be able to attack from the north. When you see that they are already struggling to supply ammunitions to the frontline in Ukraine the north is out of reach to them.
Montrose
May 5, 2025 at 11:02 am
We didn’t need the F35 so why would we wait?! We need a new airframe but the F35 is over kill. Canada does not need the best at the cost of high operating expenses and lower numbers in the fleet . We have been affective with the old F18 so anything that’s modern like a Gripen is more than enough.
Montrose
May 5, 2025 at 11:08 am
Canadians buy US goose per person than Americans buy Canadians by a fair bit so people need to get their facts checked. Canada population is maybe the size of California so expecting us to spend he same amount as the American population is crazy. Canadians provide more tourism dollars to the US than any other country. Don’t believe everything that mouth piece down south tells you
David Howes
May 5, 2025 at 1:08 pm
What canada needs is to re-tool the automotive plants which we subsidize with millions of taxpayers dollars and start building equipment and vehicles our military needs.
Trump wants automotive manufacturing back at all costs….let him have it, we can buy better cars from Europe or Asian markets.
Justsayin
May 6, 2025 at 7:54 pm
F 35 has been in the works for over a decade and still nothing delivered. If they are that far behind there is no point in waiting for anything out of the US. Move on to someone reliable.
Darren
May 7, 2025 at 6:43 pm
We do not want malware ridden American weapons. Keep your trash and give us back our money for the initial F35’s ordered
If you do not give it back, I’m sure China would be happy to take your crap off our hands for a nice premium.
We want nothing to do with America you arrogant asshats.