The Trump Administration’s stunning betrayal of an ally is forcing Canadians to face many difficult dilemmas.
One central question is how to proceed with Canada’s F-35 jet fighter purchase. The choice between buying from a neighbor it can no longer trust or diving into the unfamiliar ecosystems of European fighters is not easy to answer.
Canada CF-18 Hornet Fighter
The end of the Second World War saw Canada shift from a mixture of British and American fighters to an all-American fighter force. Canada has fielded a steady stream of American fighter jets, including the F-86 Sabre to the F-104 Starfighter, F-101 Voodoo, F-5 Freedom Fighter, and the current F/A-18C Hornet.
The United States has benefited immensely from this patronage, not only from the economic benefits of selling hundreds of fighter jets but from the commonality of aircraft pooled with NATO and the North American Air Defense Command, or NORAD for short.
For more than four decades, the Royal Canadian Air Force has relied on CF-18 fighter jets, a variant of the Boeing F/A-18 Hornet fighter. The CF-18 is obsolete, and likely because of this, the RCAF has not contributed fighter aircraft to the NATO Baltic Air Policing program since 2014. Canada has dithered for years to replace it, at one point ordering the F-35 until Prime Minister Justin Trudeau canceled the purchase and reopened the competition.
To no one’s real surprise, the F-35A won again, and in 2023, Canada agreed to purchase 88 Lightning IIs.
President Donald Trump’s bizarre fixation on annexing Canada has shattered more than a century of amity between the two countries. Despite the comically neo-imperialist position, Trump appears to be completely serious, refusing to rule out “economic force” to annex Canada. Trump’s efforts are opposed by 86 percent of Americans and nearly all Canadians. Trump has single-handedly torpedoed more than half a century of shared cooperation and respect between the two countries, leaving Canadians and Americans alike nervous and confused.
The breathtaking turnaround in relations has left Canadians reconsidering the F-35 purchase. Many Canadians ask themselves if they want their future air sovereignty reliant on a Trump-led America. The distrust has spread to Ottawa.
Canadian Minister of Defense Bill Blair recently told Breaking Defense of his directive “to determine if the F-35 contract, as it stands, is the best investment for Canada, and if there are other options that could better meet Canada’s needs.”
Canada is caught in a no-win situation. Generally, it is bad policy to buy weapons from an avowed adversary. The F-35 would give Trump another lever of power over the Canadian government. While the F-35 has no built-in kill switch, the Administration could compel Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office to terminate support for Canadian F-35s, effectively grounding the fleet as spare parts run out if Canada somehow runs afoul of Trump’s wishes.
Could Canada Go to Europe for an F-35 Fighter Replacement?
Canada has two options: continue the F-35 program and gamble that Trump and his successors are dissuaded from conquest or buy another fighter jet. Neither one sounds particularly appealing. While the F-35 buy leaves Canada exposed to Trump’s will, buying an alternative fighter is not without its share of problems.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter jet performs during the California International Airshow in Salinas, California, Oct. 30, 2021. The F-35A is a fifth generation multi-role fighter platform. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew D. Sarver)
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet assigned to the 421st Fighter Squadron, takes off during Red Flag 20-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Feb. 5, 2020. The F-35A, with its aerodynamic performance and advanced integrated avionics, will provide next-generation stealth, enhanced situational awareness and reduced vulnerability for the United States and allied nations. (U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis)
F-35. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
IFG Family Photo, F-22, A/C 4009, LtCol Lee “Split” Bryant, F-35A, AF-3, Major Jonathan “Spades” Gilbert, F-16D, A/C 835, Major Charles Brantigan & Major Scott “Gins” Rinella, in formation over ISB, Tanker View, 15 May 2019
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet assigned to the 34th Fighter Squadron, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, prepares to taxi out for a mission during Red Flag 21-1, at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Feb. 3, 2021. With its advanced avionics, the F-35A will provide next-generation stealth, enhanced situational awareness and reduced vulnerability for the United States and allied nations.
There are three credible alternatives to the F-35: the French Rafale, European Eurofighter Typhoon, and Swedish Gripen. All three are high-performance, multi-role fighters, with the Rafale and Typhoon having two engines and the Gripen one.
The basic design of all three jets predates the F-35, though, to be fair, all three have had significant upgrades. That being said, all three lack the stealth features of the F-35 and are at a considerable disadvantage against stealthy aircraft like the F-35, Chengdu J-20, and F-22 Raptor. Rafale and Typhoon cost approximately 20 percent more than the F-35 but cost about a third less to fly, costs that probably come out even over the lifetime of the aircraft. Gripen is cheaper than the F-35 and costs less per flight hour.
Replacing the F-35 Won’t Be Easy
Despite the appearance of independence from the Military-Industrial Complex, the U.S.A. still casts a long shadow. Gripen and Typhoon use European weapons, including the excellent Meteor air-to-air missile, but also a significant amount of American weapons such as the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb, HARM anti-radiation missile, and Paveway laser-guided bombs.
Gripen uses the General Electric F414 afterburning turbofan engine originally designed for the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. This equipment could be blocked from being transferred to Canada by a spurned Trump. While alternatives are possible, developing them would take time the Royal Canadian Air Force doesn’t really have.
Despite the growing animosity, it seems likely that Canada’s least-worst option is to stick with the F-35 and ride out the rest of Trump’s term, hoping for the best. By law, Trump is already historically unpopular in the United States and cannot serve a third term.
A backlash is underway, and the 2026 midterm elections will significantly curtail his power. The real question is whether a post-Trump America can reestablish itself as a reliable and steady partner to Canada and the rest of the world.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team pilot and commander, taxis into Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Wash., July 1, 2021. The F-35 Demo Team flew out of JBLM, headlining both the Gig Harbor Wings-and-Wheels and Tacoma Freedom Fair air shows for the 4th of July weekend, showcasing the advanced capabilities of the F-35 to the Pacific Northwest. (U.S. Air Force photo by Capt. Kip Sumner)
About the Author: Kyle Mizokami
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Kyle Mizokami, is a defense and national-security writer based in San Francisco. His work has appeared in Popular Mechanics, Esquire, The National Interest, Car and Driver, Men’s Health, and many others. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan Security Watch, Asia Security Watch and War Is Boring.
waco
May 2, 2025 at 9:53 am
Johnny Canuck is only getting worse with the passage of time. Afflicted by a malaise.
What people call fondness of grovelling. Or the art of grovelling. Gits you nowhere.
In the fifties, while the US DoD was angling for mach 3 fighters and bombers, and the USAF was into air-launched ballistic missiles, Ottawa quietly pursued its own mach 2 interceptor.
The Canadian firm avro fleshed out its CF-105 Arrow with the very first prototype appearing in 1957.
The initial flights of the plane proved promising, flying was smooth, no mishaps. There was bold talk of peddling the fantastic interceptor to big brother, in both London & Washington.
But Big Bro wasn’t ever ready to accept a modern mach 2 fighter-interceptor from their junior sibling.
The arrow was abruptly cancelled, like how the IAI Lavi was abruptly cancelled.
Thus today, Ottawa is forced to roll the money dice across a table full of foreign offerings, not realizing the east-west cold war is long over.
Canada doesn’t need the latest military aviation fighters anymore. Their era has gone by and today, the real boogerman is the hypersonic glider. The one that is able to fly up the isthmus of panama and over Yucatan.
Blake L Daniels
May 2, 2025 at 12:58 pm
“Stunning betrayal” is so hyperbolic, ridiculous and stupid
pagar
May 2, 2025 at 2:54 pm
Canada doesn’t need top notch jet fighters like f-35.
What Canada needs is a pantheon of non-warlike politicians.
Today is may 2 2025.
Eighty years ago this day on may 2 1945, Germany which had previously declared war on numerous nations, surrendered to the soviets Red Army.
That’s an important lesson for Canada.
Germany, with its highly vaunted messerchmitts and focke wulfs, and later, its amazing first generation jet fighter aircraft and jet bombers failed to win.
In fact, German boffins were busily working on its second-generation jets when opposing armies literally rolled in.
On April 30 1945, Hitler allowed weidling to make a breakout from berlin.
Due to some troubles, especially the presence of Goebbels, the breakout was then scheduled to occur on the night of may 1- may 2.
Goebbels killed himself on may 1 and as the remaining bunker entourage and defenders broke away through Soviet lines, weidling on the morning of may 2 1945 surrendered unconditionally to the Soviet commander of the 8th guards army, chuikov.
Canada can learn from Germany’s errors and today is better positioned in this regard than many others.
No threats, no war, no confrontation, no provocation, no military maneuvers and no hostile foreign policy.
That would lead to exactly no need for any top notch fighter aircraft.
Zhduny
May 2, 2025 at 3:40 pm
Over at the indo-pak frontier, between Jammu and kashmir, war seems extremely imminent.
Marco Rubio, the Cuban dude in trump’s cabinet has expressed genuine sympathy for victims of pahalgam incident, but where’s his sympathy for other victims. Their number bring far more numerous.
The highly lopsided nature of America’s foreign policy is directly responsible for many wars, including today’s Gaza, yemrn and Donbass.
The current Jammu & kashmir trouble is the fiendishly great handiwork of London or British empire. The one currently sending a “message” to its enemies via its coming indo-pac fleet show of flag.
Canada can learn well from the handsome stupidity of London.
India highly views its Moslem and other minorities as fair game 24/7, and the west has preferred to look the other way, and countries like Pakistan are regarded as nothing more than nuisance entities ripe for inevitable annihilation or extermination.
Thanks, London, Brussels, Berlin, Washington and Ottawa.
Canada is obviously far more fortunate, currently not being viewed by anyone as a nuisance entity, except during the 1812 period when Canada was still a Brit colony.
But things are far different on the indo-pak frontier.
Now, today, the die’s cast, with its swords drawn and new Delhi preparing to WIPE OUT that nuisance entity once and for all.
Thanks for all the not so small mercies Ottawa !
megiddo
May 2, 2025 at 6:29 pm
Canada is in a no-win situation, not due to trump, but due to the shortsightedness of Canadian politicians.
Canada is a country with a large land mass but a relatively small population.
Thus, better for Canadian politicians to have Canada to be divided into three (or more) independent countries like what has already been accomplished or happened to Yugoslavia.
Yugoslavia was created by the western powers after ww1, but, but,..but..but..but after the end of the cold war, NATO (essentially representing those same western powers) decided time has come to chop it up, to balkanize it.
Canada doesn’t at all need that rather extremely violent method employed by NATO, instead the liberals and the conservatives and the quebecois and others can sit down together and draw up the brand new map.
Once that’s done, it’s up to the individual rump states to decide which fighter jet to buy.
F-35s, eurofata typhoons, rafales, south Asian tejas, swedish gripens or sopwith camel flyable reproduction replicas from yiwu.
P
May 2, 2025 at 9:29 pm
Not only do the Canadians have concerns with the F35, but also with their purchase of their variant of the Type 46 frigate. They were planning on using US radar, the Aegis combat system, American VLS and missiles
One-World-Order
May 2, 2025 at 10:31 pm
What actually does Canada want today, in 2025, and the years beyond.
Very unlikely now for somebody to barge violently right into Canada today, so the question of getting latest fighter jets is a bit irrelevant.
What’s more practical or realistic is the prospect of the Canadian military participating in a future land war in asia.
Then, what Canada would need are armored vehicles, like tanks, not f-35s.
The former US tank general, Ross Coffman, who headed the US Army Futures Command, during his tenure loudly emphasized the importance of a modern sophisticated armored force in a future conflict with (who else) china.
For China, Coffman said destroying the enemy bases and infrastructure in china isn’t enough to claim victory.
You need tanks. You need them to trundle through all the villages, the towns and cities across china to cower them and bring them to heel.
Canadian military will surely be participating in that kind of great adventure. Impossible that Canada won’t be involved in Asia.
So, Canada now must consider what type of tank to buy today.
T-90, T-84 oplot, K2 black panther, Leopard 2A7, challenger 3, M1A2, or build an entirely homegrown new tank. Forget f-35.
DavyJones
May 3, 2025 at 7:19 am
Canada has a long established shipbuilding industry located in its Quebec province.
Instead of getting fixated on acquiring stealth fighters with short operational radius, why don’t Canada build ocean-going destroyers or frigates armed with ballistic missiles.
Recently, north Korea showed off the Choi hyon armed to the teeth with all types of missiles.
And on Saturday Pakistan tested its abdali ballistic missile capable of blowing up the enemy to smithereens.
Short-legged stealh fighters can’t range too far from home base, but warships can always sail to places far from Canadian shores.
Surely, the new Canadian govt isn’t suddenly disinterested in military adventures abroad.
After all, Canada is part of FVEY, the world’s foremost unrivalled global policeman.
Ericji
May 4, 2025 at 3:33 pm
Betrayal of Canada… Haha