The Trump Administration’s stunning betrayal of an ally is forcing Canadians to face many difficult dilemmas.
One central question is how to proceed with Canada’s F-35 jet fighter purchase. The choice between buying from a neighbor it can no longer trust or diving into the unfamiliar ecosystems of European fighters is not easy to answer.
Canada CF-18 Hornet Fighter
The end of the Second World War saw Canada shift from a mixture of British and American fighters to an all-American fighter force. Canada has fielded a steady stream of American fighter jets, including the F-86 Sabre to the F-104 Starfighter, F-101 Voodoo, F-5 Freedom Fighter, and the current F/A-18C Hornet.
The United States has benefited immensely from this patronage, not only from the economic benefits of selling hundreds of fighter jets but from the commonality of aircraft pooled with NATO and the North American Air Defense Command, or NORAD for short.
For more than four decades, the Royal Canadian Air Force has relied on CF-18 fighter jets, a variant of the Boeing F/A-18 Hornet fighter. The CF-18 is obsolete, and likely because of this, the RCAF has not contributed fighter aircraft to the NATO Baltic Air Policing program since 2014. Canada has dithered for years to replace it, at one point ordering the F-35 until Prime Minister Justin Trudeau canceled the purchase and reopened the competition.
To no one’s real surprise, the F-35A won again, and in 2023, Canada agreed to purchase 88 Lightning IIs.
President Donald Trump’s bizarre fixation on annexing Canada has shattered more than a century of amity between the two countries. Despite the comically neo-imperialist position, Trump appears to be completely serious, refusing to rule out “economic force” to annex Canada. Trump’s efforts are opposed by 86 percent of Americans and nearly all Canadians. Trump has single-handedly torpedoed more than half a century of shared cooperation and respect between the two countries, leaving Canadians and Americans alike nervous and confused.
The breathtaking turnaround in relations has left Canadians reconsidering the F-35 purchase. Many Canadians ask themselves if they want their future air sovereignty reliant on a Trump-led America. The distrust has spread to Ottawa.
Canadian Minister of Defense Bill Blair recently told Breaking Defense of his directive “to determine if the F-35 contract, as it stands, is the best investment for Canada, and if there are other options that could better meet Canada’s needs.”
Canada is caught in a no-win situation. Generally, it is bad policy to buy weapons from an avowed adversary. The F-35 would give Trump another lever of power over the Canadian government. While the F-35 has no built-in kill switch, the Administration could compel Lockheed Martin and the F-35 Joint Program Office to terminate support for Canadian F-35s, effectively grounding the fleet as spare parts run out if Canada somehow runs afoul of Trump’s wishes.
Could Canada Go to Europe for an F-35 Fighter Replacement?
Canada has two options: continue the F-35 program and gamble that Trump and his successors are dissuaded from conquest or buy another fighter jet. Neither one sounds particularly appealing. While the F-35 buy leaves Canada exposed to Trump’s will, buying an alternative fighter is not without its share of problems.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighter jet performs during the California International Airshow in Salinas, California, Oct. 30, 2021. The F-35A is a fifth generation multi-role fighter platform. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew D. Sarver)
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet assigned to the 421st Fighter Squadron, takes off during Red Flag 20-1 at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Feb. 5, 2020. The F-35A, with its aerodynamic performance and advanced integrated avionics, will provide next-generation stealth, enhanced situational awareness and reduced vulnerability for the United States and allied nations. (U.S. Air Force photo by William R. Lewis)
F-35. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
IFG Family Photo, F-22, A/C 4009, LtCol Lee “Split” Bryant, F-35A, AF-3, Major Jonathan “Spades” Gilbert, F-16D, A/C 835, Major Charles Brantigan & Major Scott “Gins” Rinella, in formation over ISB, Tanker View, 15 May 2019
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet assigned to the 34th Fighter Squadron, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, prepares to taxi out for a mission during Red Flag 21-1, at Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, Feb. 3, 2021. With its advanced avionics, the F-35A will provide next-generation stealth, enhanced situational awareness and reduced vulnerability for the United States and allied nations.
There are three credible alternatives to the F-35: the French Rafale, European Eurofighter Typhoon, and Swedish Gripen. All three are high-performance, multi-role fighters, with the Rafale and Typhoon having two engines and the Gripen one.
The basic design of all three jets predates the F-35, though, to be fair, all three have had significant upgrades. That being said, all three lack the stealth features of the F-35 and are at a considerable disadvantage against stealthy aircraft like the F-35, Chengdu J-20, and F-22 Raptor. Rafale and Typhoon cost approximately 20 percent more than the F-35 but cost about a third less to fly, costs that probably come out even over the lifetime of the aircraft. Gripen is cheaper than the F-35 and costs less per flight hour.
Replacing the F-35 Won’t Be Easy
Despite the appearance of independence from the Military-Industrial Complex, the U.S.A. still casts a long shadow. Gripen and Typhoon use European weapons, including the excellent Meteor air-to-air missile, but also a significant amount of American weapons such as the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb, HARM anti-radiation missile, and Paveway laser-guided bombs.
Gripen uses the General Electric F414 afterburning turbofan engine originally designed for the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. This equipment could be blocked from being transferred to Canada by a spurned Trump. While alternatives are possible, developing them would take time the Royal Canadian Air Force doesn’t really have.
Despite the growing animosity, it seems likely that Canada’s least-worst option is to stick with the F-35 and ride out the rest of Trump’s term, hoping for the best. By law, Trump is already historically unpopular in the United States and cannot serve a third term.
A backlash is underway, and the 2026 midterm elections will significantly curtail his power. The real question is whether a post-Trump America can reestablish itself as a reliable and steady partner to Canada and the rest of the world.
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team pilot and commander, taxis into Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Wash., July 1, 2021. The F-35 Demo Team flew out of JBLM, headlining both the Gig Harbor Wings-and-Wheels and Tacoma Freedom Fair air shows for the 4th of July weekend, showcasing the advanced capabilities of the F-35 to the Pacific Northwest. (U.S. Air Force photo by Capt. Kip Sumner)
About the Author: Kyle Mizokami
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Kyle Mizokami, is a defense and national-security writer based in San Francisco. His work has appeared in Popular Mechanics, Esquire, The National Interest, Car and Driver, Men’s Health, and many others. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan Security Watch, Asia Security Watch and War Is Boring.
