In mid-March the Canadian Defense Minister, Bill Blair, stated the nation is actively examining potential alternative options to procuring the US-made F-35A stealth fighter.
The NATO nation and northern neighbor to the US will now engage in conversations with competing combat aircraft manufacturers.
Blair made his comments within hours of being reappointed to the ministry job as part of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s new cabinet.
His comments also came only one day after another NATO nation, Portugal, announced that it was planning to cancel its procurement of the high-tech fighter aircraft.
This move by the now re-elected Canadian PM is prompted by an escalating trade conflict and war of words between Washington and Ottawa.
A growing number of Canadians would like to see the US $19 billion purchase cancelled, and for Carney’s Liberal Party leadership to look for a non-US alternative.
Why Canada Needs the F-35
Even some of the program’s major detractors admit the three F-35 variants are all technological marvels of their time.
It is one of the most advanced aircraft of its kind in today’s market, but more importantly it is the only one being built in the numbers that can provide a delivery date for a new customer within a reasonable time frame.
The main attraction of the aircraft is its low radar cross section (RCS), which is more commonly referred to as stealth.
This gives the aircraft the ability to evade detection by the radar of an enemy aircraft, penetrate the ground-based air defense networks of adversaries and get close enough to a target to launch its weapons before anyone knows it is there.
But another characteristic of the aircraft is that, as one Lockheed Martin representative explained years ago, “it makes the pilot more than just an aviator. He becomes a battle space manager. He can accept data into the cockpit direct from a satellite. He does not have to wait for an AWACS aircraft to pass it off to him.”
These situational awareness and networking functions make the F-35 a weapon of the future and a force multiplier in combat situations.
All of these, plus other reasons, make the F-35 a good choice for Canada or any other member of the Atlantic Alliance.
All Politics is Local
That ever-popular but accurate phrase tells you why more than one procurement decision had adverse ripple effects for years.
The most famous of those was the decision by the US Navy to use the Pratt & Whitney TF30 engine in the F-14 instead of a marinized version of the F100 engine, as originally planned.
Some three dozen F-14s would be lost throughout that aircraft’s time in service, many of those losses due to engine failures.
The question is, will Canada’s decision to stick with the F-35 be one that is a very expensive bill that is still being paid decades from now?
Underneath that umbrella are several specific issues: the growing cost of the aircraft, Canada’s real defense requirements v. the F-35’s mission profile, and whether or not Canada would have control over critical technologies associated with the aircraft.
On the cost issue, between 2001 to 2022, the price of one F-35A plane increased from USD $69 million to USD $131.3 million.
The price almost doubling is troubling to begin with for Canada’s MoD, but there are also questions as to the aircraft being relevant to Canadian technology and the missions required to defend the nation effectively.
But with the controversy about statements from Washington calling for Canada to become the 51st state, the degree of control that the US would retain over the aircraft and its users is becoming the number one worry. This has given rise to what would happen to the program in the loss of any Canadian autonomy.
More than one F-35 customer has been concerned over the power of the US to limit control over the plane’s use and future development.
Under the current terms of the procurement, the US will have full authority to install all upgrades and software improvements required to keep the F-35 current and compatible with other aircraft users.
Something on the order of 110 Canadian companies are involved in the F-35’s supply chain. The first of the 16 aircraft Canada is committed to out of a potential procurement of 88 will be delivered next year to a US military base. The aircraft itself will not arrive in Canada until 2028.
This potentially gives Canada the time to decide whether or not to buy the full complement of 88 – or take just the initial 16 aircraft and be done with the F-35. They could be used as a first day of the war silver bullet, and then Canada could supplement them with a buy of 150 of some other aircraft, like the Saab JAS-39E/F, that could be flown day in and day out.
An issue that will surely come up in the meeting to take place soon between PM Carney and US President Donald Trump this coming week.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
