Key Points – A significant F-47 fighter proposal from U.S. President Donald Trump to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could reshape Japan’s future air combat capabilities.
-The offer involves the potential procurement of the F-47, a sixth-generation stealth fighter currently under development for the U.S. Air Force with an anticipated service entry in the early to mid-2030s.
-This development follows President Trump’s earlier announcement on March 21, naming Boeing as the lead contractor for the F-47 and hinting at an export variant.
-Japan, a historically strong proponent of advanced U.S. military aircraft, is considered a prime candidate for such a purchase, potentially acquiring the F-47 in substantial numbers.
F-47 and a History of Preferring US Heavyweight Fighters
Japan’s interest in top-tier American fighter technology is well-established. The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) previously expressed keen interest in the F-22 Raptor, the F-47’s fifth-generation predecessor, though the F-22 was never offered for export and its U.S. Air Force production was drastically curtailed.
Historically, Japan was the largest international operator of the F-15 Eagle, the fourth-generation forerunner to the F-22 and F-47, acquiring 220 units during the Cold War – a figure surpassing the combined fleets of all other F-15 export customers. Unlike many Western air forces that utilize heavyweight fighters like the F-15 for elite squadrons due to high operational costs, Japan, similar to the Royal Saudi Air Force, has relied on such aircraft to form the bulk of its fighter fleet.
F-47 Offer Challenges Japan’s Tempest Commitment
The potential acquisition of the American F-47 directly conflicts with Japan’s current Defence Ministry plans to invest in the Tempest sixth-generation fighter. The Tempest is a collaborative project involving Japan, the United Kingdom, Sweden, and Italy, under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP).
Japan had initially confirmed its intent to develop an indigenous stealth fighter in February 2019, a program then expected to lean heavily on U.S. support due to Japanese industry’s limited experience in stealth technology. However, in December 2022, Japan merged its national program with the British-led Tempest initiative, with Japan and the UK set to jointly develop new engines for the aircraft.
A significant concern with the GCAP is the relative inexperience of the European partners in developing even fifth-generation stealth fighters. Past European collaborative fighter programs like the Eurofighter and Tornado were not widely regarded as leading-edge aircraft for their respective eras. This contrasts sharply with Japan’s previous procurements from the United States – the F-4 Phantom, F-15 Eagle, and F-35 Lightning II – all of which were considered world-leading platforms at the time of their introduction. Opting for European partnerships over established U.S. suppliers could potentially diminish the standing of Japan’s premier fighter units compared to regional competitors.
Growing Concerns Over Global Combat Air Programme Delays
The challenges facing Japan’s reliance on the GCAP are becoming increasingly evident. Development has been plagued by predictable delays, with a Reuters report on May 30 highlighting significant concerns in Tokyo that the program is unlikely to meet its 2035 fighter rollout target. Development hurdles are leading to expectations that Britain and Italy may push the Tempest’s service entry into the 2040s. This timeline could place it a full decade behind the anticipated operational deployment of American and Chinese sixth-generation fighters in the early to mid-2030s. This pattern of delays reflects a broader trend in European fighter development, with the Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program also seeing its service entry postponed, potentially to the 2050s.
Performance and Technological Gaps Add to GCAP Worries
Beyond scheduling issues, there are fundamental concerns that the GCAP will not produce a fighter on par with its American or Chinese counterparts. This is largely attributed to significant disparities in experience with stealth fighter development and a substantial technological advantage held by the U.S. and China. Both nations conduct research and development on a vastly larger scale and possess more extensive industrial bases, leading to a growing performance gap between their fighters and those from other countries. This disparity is evident in the performance of their top fourth-generation fighters compared to European models, as well as their multi-decade lead in fielding indigenous fifth-generation aircraft.
The F-47: An Appealing Alternative for Japan?
For Japan’s Defence Ministry, the F-47 likely presents a highly attractive option. It promises earlier operational capability with lower development risks compared to European alternatives, and is expected to offer superior performance, including greater range. Procuring the F-47 would also help address U.S. concerns regarding Japan’s trade surplus, providing an additional incentive. Enhanced interoperability with U.S. fighter units stationed in Japan is another significant benefit.
F-47 Fighter. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force.
F-47 Fighter from U.S. Air Force.
The urgency for Japan to acquire an advanced sixth-generation fighter is amplified by recent developments. The standing of Japanese fighter units has been challenged by significant advancements in China’s fifth-generation fighter programs.
Furthermore, China’s unveiling of two new sixth-generation fighter prototypes in December 2024 has likely heightened Tokyo’s perceived need for a rapid and capable response. Compounding this, Japan’s current F-35 fleet, while modern, is not optimized for air-to-air combat and has limitations in endurance, maneuverability, weapons payload, and radar size compared to even the older F-15s. These factors collectively underscore the strategic importance of Japan’s next fighter decision.
