A New York Times report published in May 2026 estimates that as many as 1.1 million Russians have been killed or severely wounded during the war in Ukraine. The May 2026 New York Times report estimates that as many as 350,000 Russians have been killed in the war. Russia’s 1.1 million casualties represent more than half of Russia’s active-duty force.
The Ukraine War Is a Nightmare for Putin
U.S. Soldiers, assigned to the 1st Battalion, 64th Armor Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, conduct gunnery with M1A2 Abrams tanks during exercise Combined Resolve V at 7th Army Joint Multinational Training Command in Grafenwoehr, Germany, Oct. 8, 2015. Combined Resolve is designed to exercise the U.S. Army’s regionally aligned force to the U.S. European Command area of responsibility with multinational training at all echelons. Approximately 4,600 participants from 13 NATO and European partner nations will participate. The exercise involves around 2,000 U.S. troops and 2,600 NATO and Partner for Peace nations. Combined Resolve is a preplanned exercise that does not fall under Operation Atlantic Resolve. This exercise will train participants to function together in a joint, multinational and integrated environment and train U.S. rotational forces to be more flexible, agile and to better operate alongside our NATO Allies. (U.S. Army photo by Visual Information Specialist Gertrud Zach/released)
An observer’s eye on Russia’s sheer “size” and its military history might lead one to instantly assume its land Army massively outnumbers the Ukrainian military … yet the difference is not as stark or alarming as one might initially suspect.
Russia 1.1 Million Casualties
With the war now in its fifth year, many are likely to wonder how much longer each side can sustain casualties and continue fighting.
Many independent public estimates, including a New York Times report published in May, 2026, find that as many as 1.1 million Russians have been killed or severely wounded during the war in Ukraine.
The number of full combat deaths is quite high as well, according to the paper, which estimates that as many as 350,000 Russians have been killed in the war.
This is simply a massive number, and it suggests that more than one-half of its active duty force has been disabled or destroyed in the Ukraine war.
The question this raises is … is there a limit or a breaking point at which Russia would have no choice but to “stop” fighting?
Ukraine tanks fighting. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Putin seems to have a strong grip on power, yet thousands of continued casualties without victory or resolution in the war are likely to challenge or threaten the status quo to some extent.
Also, added to this complexity is the reality that, despite the massive Russian sacrifice in terms of lives, the war essentially remains a “stalemate” with Ukraine gaining momentum and no clear victor emerging.
Russia operates roughly 1.3 million active duty soldiers, and Ukraine operates with a sizeable 900,000, according to GlobalFirepower.com’s 2025 statistics.
Ukraine, however, is reported to operate as many as 1.2 million reserves, a number far fewer than Russia’s 2 million.
A look at the numbers does show that Russia outnumbers Ukraine, but Ukraine also operates a sizable force, much larger than some may have anticipated.
There are also intangibles related to this equation, such as a “will to fight,” which the Ukrainians have demonstrated with intensity. This may not be the case on the Russian side, as their forces have faced morale problems since the start of the war.
MSTA Artillery from Russian Army.
Russian Msta Artillery. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russian Morale Problem
The Russian Army likely still suffers from a morale problem as well, meaning many Russian soldiers may be reluctant to fight and simply have no interest in killing Ukrainians, most of whom share common ethnic ties with Russians.
Early in the war, there were countless anecdotal reports of Russians simply “taking off” and abandoning their military vehicles or fighting positions and refusing to fight.
It is likely that Russian morale problems have not only continued but worsened as the war has continued and casualty figures continue to mount. Will there be a point at which Putin can no longer recruit and send young soldiers to die in Ukraine?
Could there come a point at which Russian public opinion and opposition to the war grow so strong that Putin feels less secure in his hold on power?
The free flow of information is greatly compromised in Russia, so it is not clear what Russians know or understand about the war and the extent of the casualties, yet doubts have to start emerging when hundreds of thousands of young Russians keep dying, and the war continues.
What Does Russia Have Left?
Has Russia already mobilized a massive portion of its 2-million-strong reserve force? With Russian casualties hitting 1.1 million, it would seem quite likely.
It is even possible that Putin has had to reach well beyond his reserves to require young men to fight as the war continues. What the casualty rate does is not only take an indescribable human toll, but it also puts pressure on Putin to resolve the conflict in some way or at least agree to a ceasefire.
Unless, of course, Putin believes Russia will ultimately prevail and prefers eventual victory to any other alternative, regardless of the cost to Russians.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive. Osborn is also President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master’s Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
