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Is North Korea Getting Ready to Test an ICBM?

Kim Trump and Moon
President Donald J. Trump and Republic of South Korea President Moon Jae-in bid farewell to Chairman of the Workers’ Party Kim Jong Un Korea Sunday, June 30, 2019, at the demarcation line separating North and South Korea at the Korean Demilitarized Zone. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

Social media today is flagging South Korean media reports that North Korea has completed new multiple ICBM and transport erector launchers (TELs).  Could this be the new so-called “strategic weapon” that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un threatened to unveil months back?

While it seems like years ago, back during the end of last year, during the 5th Plenary Meeting of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, it was declared that:

“Saying that we should more actively push forward the project for developing strategic weapons, he confirmed that the world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future, declaring that we can not give up the security of our future just for the visible economic results and happiness and comfort in reality now that hostile acts and nuclear threat against us are increasing and nothing has changed between the days when we maintained the line of simultaneously pushing forward the economic construction and the building of nuclear force and now when we struggle to direct our efforts to the economic construction owing to the U.S. gangster-like acts.” 

At the moment, I am a little skeptical that this report could be that new weapon. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un loves to show off his new military assets in grand fashion, and just putting them out there for satellites to pick them up seems like the least media-savvy way to do it.

Still, there could be value in signaling to Seoul and Washington that Pyongyang is ready to escalate tensions in a big way at any moment–and Kim breaking his no ICBM testing pledge would surely be one way to go, however, tensions would reach a fever pitch and place North Korea back into U.S. domestic politics thanks to the 2020 presidential eleciton. Sadly, the trend lines over the last few weeks do to put the test of advanced missiles back in the realm of possibility.

Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) serves as a Senior Director at the Center for the National Interest in Washington, D.C.
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Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) recently served as Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest. He also served as Executive Editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest. Kazianis has held various roles at The National Interest, including Senior Editor and Managing Editor over the last decade. Harry is a recognized expert on national security issues involving North & South Korea, China, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and general U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges. Past Experience Kazianis previously served as part of the foreign policy team for the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Ted Cruz. Kazianis also managed the foreign policy communications efforts of the Heritage Foundation, served as Editor-In-Chief of the Tokyo-based The Diplomat magazine, Editor of RealClearDefense, and as a WSD-Handa Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): PACNET. Kazianis has also held foreign policy fellowships at the Potomac Foundation and the University of Nottingham. Kazianis is the author of the book The Tao of A2/AD, an exploration of China’s military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. He has also authored several reports on U.S. military strategy in the Asia-Pacific as well as edited and co-authored a recent report on U.S.-Japan-Vietnam trilateral cooperation. Kazianis has provided expert commentary, over 900 op-eds, and analysis for many outlets, including The Telegraph, The Wall Street Journal, Yonhap, The New York Times, Hankyoreh, The Washington Post, MSNBC, 1945, Fox News, Fox Business, CNN, USA Today, CNBC, Politico, The Financial Times, NBC, Slate, Reuters, AP, The Washington Examiner, The Washington Times, RollCall, RealClearPolitics, LA Times, Newsmax, BBC, Foreign Policy, The Hill, Fortune, Forbes, DefenseOne, Newsweek, NPR, Popular Mechanics, VOA, Yahoo News, National Security Journal and many others.

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