Is a Russian invasion coming soon? For almost four months now, the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has loomed heavy over the ministerial cabinets of Europe and in Washington. Intelligence assessments have indicated that February is the most likely and favorable time for such an attack. And recent developments suggest that they might be correct.
Russian Invasion Coming Soon? Get Out Now
In the last hours, the situation in Ukraine has become increasingly direr after U.S. President Joe Biden urged Americans in the eastern European country to depart urgently because of the imminent threat of a Russian invasion. Most American diplomats have also departed.
“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border. As we’ve said before, we are in the window when an invasion could begin at any time should Vladimir Putin decide to order it. I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information. But I do want to be clear: It could begin during the Olympics, despite a lot of speculation that it would only happen after the Olympics,” Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor, said in a press briefing on Friday.
“As we’ve said before, we are ready either way. We are ready to continue results-oriented diplomacy that addresses the security concerns of the United States, Russia, and Europe consistent with our values and the principle of reciprocity,” Sullivan added.
President Biden said that no U.S. troops would deploy within Ukraine in order to evacuate U.S. citizens trapped by a potential invasion. In other words, there won’t be a repeat of the Kabul evacuations of last August.
On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Russian opposite number about the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.
“I spoke with Foreign Minister Lavrov today to urge a diplomatic resolution to Russia’s unprovoked military build-up around Ukraine. I reiterated that further Russian aggression would be met with a resolute, massive, and united Transatlantic response,” Blinken said.
According to the Spectator, it seems that Russian diplomats and officials have also been ordered to depart Ukraine, a sign that an invasion is imminent.
In the last hours, U.S. officials have been saying that they have intelligence that indicates that Putin has taken the decision to invade Ukraine and has communicated it to his military leadership.
Russian Invasion: A Unified Response?
In a recent call between the White House and European leaders, President Biden and his NATO and European counterparts “expressed their concern about Russia’s continued build-up of military forces around Ukraine and reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” according to the White House.
“They expressed their desire for a diplomatic solution to the crisis, and discussed recent engagements with Russia in multiple formats. The leaders agreed on the importance of coordinated efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine, including their readiness to impose massive consequences and severe economic costs on Russia should it choose military escalation, and to continue reinforcing the defensive posture on NATO’s eastern flank,” the White House added.
Military action against Russia in the event of an invasion is out of the question. President Biden has repeatedly said that he won’t commit any U.S. troops on the ground to fight the Russian invasion forces. So, the only alternative is shift and heavy sanctions against the Kremlin. The Biden administration has stated many times that a Russian invasion will bring unprecedented sanctions against Moscow.
In a last-minute effort to avert war, President Biden will talk with Putin on Saturday.
1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.