The latest intelligence update from the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence argues that the Russian military is struggling to make progress in the Donbas region of Ukraine, even as troops intensify shelling in the area.
“Russian shelling and strikes on the Donbas line of control continue to increase, with the Ukrainians repelling numerous attempted advances by Russian forces,” the April 19 update reads.
The British government department added that Russia efforts to move through the region “continues to be impacted by the environmental, logistical and technical challenges” that have affected their armed forces throughout the offensive. British defense officials added that the Russians are also struggling to hold back the “highly-motivated Ukrainian armed forces.”
The British agency also said that Russia’s inability to completely take control over the southern port city of Mariupol, which has been “wiped off the face of the Earth” in recent weeks, indicates that Russia is failing to achieve its goals as quickly as originally intended.
British intelligence also published a new map of Ukraine revealing Russia’s latest attacks and the parts of the country occupied and controlled by the Russians.
According to the map, Russian troops control much of the land corridor between Crimea and Donbas, with just a handful of contested areas standing in the way. While strikes continue in Western cities like Kyiv and Lviv, most of Russia’s firepower has been redirected to Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Nova Kakhova.
The British map also predicts that Russian troops will advance north from Kherson and Melitopol in the south, while more troops enter the Donbas region over the Russian border from the north and the east.
Pentagon Predicts Russia Will Intensify Attacks
U.S. Defense officials believe that Russia’s latest offensive in Donetsk is a sign of things to come, and that the latest missile strikes are consistent with Western intelligence that suggested the Kremlin would shift its focus from the Ukrainian capital city and instead focus on taking control of Donbas.
“We think these offensives are preludes to larger offensive operations that the Russians plan to conduct,” an unnamed Defense official said.
The same official also said that the United States has observed several ground offenses in the region, including the use of long-range missiles and artillery bombardment. CNBC also reported that the defense official believes that not all of Russia’s troops have been redeployed to fight in Ukraine, with some Russian units still actively resupplying.
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
