The Ukrainians want to give civilians in Russia a taste of their own medicine, and Ukrainian artillery fire is now hitting civilian targets across the border. This is a turn of events to watch closely as the artillery war picks up. Shelling has specifically hit the Belgorod oblast in southwestern Russia, north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. One person was killed and three people wounded by Ukrainian fire in a village in that region on May 11.
Remarkable but Fleeting
Ukraine hit Russia again on May 15. The Kyiv Independent said, “Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov claimed that the village of Sereda in the region’s Shebekino District was shelled from the territory of Ukraine, saying that one civilian received a shrapnel wound. Previously Ukraine has neither confirmed nor denied shelling Russian regions.”
Some military analysts on social media point out that Ukrainian artillery could target Russian supply lines as the defenders counterattack and move north past Kharkiv.
Shashank Joshi, defense editor at the Economist, posted to Twitter on May 16 that according to security commentator Konrad Muzyka, “‘Ukraine will be able to hit Russian logistics lines coming through Vovenchansk (from Belgorod to Izyum).’ And, he says, ‘[it is] likely that Ukraine will be able to shell Russian soil around Belgorod.'”
Noteworthy lines in @konrad_muzyka update on Ukrainian counter-offensives around Kharkiv: Ukr “will be able to hit Russian logistics lines coming through Vovenchansk” (from Belgorod to Izyum). And, he says, likely that Ukraine will be able to shell Russian soil around Belgorod. pic.twitter.com/GuFXVwc7SA
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 16, 2022
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Al Jazeera that Russia has it coming.
“If you [Russians] decide to massively attack another country, massively kill everyone there, massively crush peaceful people with tanks, and use warehouses in your regions to enable the killings, then sooner or later the debts will have to be repaid,” Podolyak said.
While it is remarkable to see Ukraine shelling Russian civilian targets, the effects could be fleeting. The Ukrainians would need to move much more artillery in position to hit Russian residential areas and supply lines for it to make a difference.
Nevertheless, the bombardment is a psychological blow to Russia. No one expected the war to last this long, much less to see Ukraine strike at Russian territory. This is a propaganda win for Ukraine.
What the War Has Come Down To
The war has come down to dueling artillery in eastern Ukraine. This type of fighting will exact a toll from civilians on both sides. Russia also faces logistical hurdles, and artillery fire from Ukraine could shake Moscow’s confidence in its ability to resupply Russian forces. Ukraine is pushing Russia back steadily. We will likely witness additional shelling of Russian civilian and military targets, even if its effectiveness is limited in scope.
Ukraine will receive more towed and self-propelled artillery systems from the U.S. and other NATO members. This artillery could take weeks to reach the frontlines near Kharkiv, but it will eventually join the other assets that Ukraine is fielding. When this happens, look for more Russian casualties in the Belgorod region.
Now serving as 1945’s Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, Ph.D., is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood.
