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War in Ukraine Reality Check: Combat Fundamentals Still Favor Russia in Donbas

Ukraine
Russian main battle tank T-90M Proryv destroyed by Ukrainian Armed Forces is seen near the village of Staryi Saltiv, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kharkiv region, Ukraine May 9, 2022. Picture taken May 9, 2022. REUTERS/Vitalii Hnidyi.

In the past week, there have been many reports out of Kyiv highlighting critical actions in the Kharkiv front in which Ukraine’s troops have expelled Russian troops from several villages and towns. While every Ukrainian success should be celebrated, it is essential to determine whether these combat actions represent a turning of the tide or an inconclusive part of the routine ebb and flow of modern combat.

My bottom-line-up-front assessment: the battle in the Kharkiv-Donbas area remains a dynamic situation in which many outcomes are possible – but current trends and conditions still favor the Russians in the northern battlefront. Here’s why:

In the past several days, Ukrainian troops have conducted successful tactical counterattacks and retaken four settlements outside of Kharkiv, most recently the towns of Ternova and Pytomnyk. The UK Defense Ministry reported in an unclassified intelligence assessment it tweeted on Thursday, that the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Kharkiv area “is a tacit recognition of Russia’s inability to capture key Ukrainian cities.” If Russia had been trying to capture Kharkiv, then that would be a valid assessment. There is compelling evidence, however, to suggest that Russia has had different intentions, and despite the loss of these towns, may be accomplishing its intended purpose near Kharkiv.

After Russia’s disastrous opening phase of its invasion in which it suffered egregious losses north of Kyiv – failing to make even moderate progress in capturing the city – has reoriented its operations to center on the destruction of the approximate 40,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) defending in the Donbas front.

To accomplish that task, Russian forces have chosen to attack the Donbas in three main directions: a northern shoulder, the center, and a southern shoulder. Their intent is to saturate key parts of the 300-mile frontline with heavy artillery, rocket, and aerial attacks, then probe the Ukrainian lines to find weak spots to penetrate the UAF lines, isolate pockets of defenders, and methodically destroy them piece by piece. For this strategy to work, however, Russia has to make sure that UAF formations do not attack Russian flanks on either the northern or southern shoulders.

Moscow appears to have chosen to simultaneously conduct what’s called economy-of-force missions near Kharkiv in the north and in the Kherson region in the south. The idea behind an economy-of-force mission is that an army will use as few troops as possible to accomplish a supporting task so that it may apply the majority of its combat power to achieve the main objective.

In this case, that means having enough Russian troops in the Kharkiv and Kherson areas to hold the Ukrainian troops defending the respective regions in place so they are unable to either attack Russian flanks on the Donbas’ northern or southern shoulders or to reinforce the Ukrainian lines on its side of the Donbas. Either outcome would put Russia’s battle plan at risk.

Russian efforts in Kharkiv and Kherson have thus far served their purposes, as the Ukrainian forces continue to be decisively engaged and have not been able to affect the Russians engaged in the Donbas fight, nor have they been able to redeploy to help the UAF troops on their side of the line. According to reports, Russia has only three weakened battalion tactical groups (BTG) engaging Kharkiv, and to prevent being overrun, have blown bridges between them and the Ukrainian counterattacks.

Kyiv appears to be pursuing a strategy in the Kharkiv/Donbas fight that has the potential to either upend the Russian plan – or play right into it. If Ukraine troops are able to continue the counterattack and destroy the three Russian BTGs, it is possible they could then pivot south towards the Russian attack on the northern shoulder of the Donbas, forcing the Kremlin to either pull forces from elsewhere to stop the UAF drive, or the Ukrainians could send that combat power to aid its troops on their side of the fight to make Russia’s battle much more difficult.  There is a risk with that course of action, however.

If the UAF drive north of Kharkiv proves unable to overcome the three Russian BTGs, the UAF will effectively validate Moscow’s plans by remaining engaged with the Russian BTGs, not attacking the Russian flank in the northern Donbas, nor reinforce the UAF lines. Though weakened, the Russians have yet to be overrun by the Ukrainian troops, and on Friday continued launching artillery strikes, along with air strikes against targets in the Kharkiv region. Meanwhile, Russian forces kept up their heavy attacks on the northern shoulder of the Donbas, slowly but methodically pushing the UAF defenders backward.

War is a very dynamic, unpredictable affair, and what appears to be momentum by one side can often be reversed a short time later by the opponent. Up to this point, the strategy the Russians appear to be using in their attempt to capture the Donbas and destroy the UAF defenders there is making progress. However, it remains possible that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Kharkiv region could derail the Russian plans. Yet for the following practical and fundamental reasons, the most likely outcome of this fight is that Russia will prevail in the Donbas.

In the modern era of warfare, there are a few key factors that almost always result in victory for the side that best employs them. In this war, Russia has advantages over the Ukraine armed in important categories that will be hard for the UAF to overcome. First is a clear Russian command of the skies. Yes, as many have pointed out, Russia was unable to completely knock out the Ukrainian air defenses, but they have badly degraded them such that Russia is routinely able to fly between 200 to 300 sorties per day.

About a month ago, there was much notoriety that Ukraine had gained the use of 20 fighter jets owing to supply parts provided by the West. Yet there has been no apparent increase in the number of Ukrainian jets attacking Russian positions beyond the five to 10 per day reported earlier in the war. The reason is clear: Russian air defense capabilities remain fully in tact and employ modern S-400 systems that makes any attempt to fly by Ukrainian pilots a likely death sentence. Ukrainian air defenses still exist, but were badly degraded at the start of the war, and continue to be knocked out by Russian attacks. These realities underscore how hard it would be for Ukraine to reverse the momentum in the Donbas.

If the UAF troops attempted to maneuver the more than 100km from the Kharkiv region to attack Russian troops investing the northern shoulder of the Donbas, they would have to travel considerable distance on open roads – making themselves as vulnerable to Russian artillery attacks, rocket fire, and air strikes as the Russian armor was to Ukrainian attacks north of Kyiv. It is unlikely a Ukrainian convoy of armored vehicles would survive in the open against Russian long-range fires.

Ukraine

Ukraine anti-tank weapon being fired in the field. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

If Russia continues to maintain its advantage in air power and air defense, it is unlikely Ukraine’s forces will be able to effectively attack Russian flanks, leaving Moscow’s assault on the Donbas to continue without external interference. That does not bode well for the Ukraine troops fighting for their lives in the Battle of Donbas.

Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis

Written By

Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.

24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. F-18E

    May 14, 2022 at 1:23 pm

    The fundamentals ULTIMATELY favor Russia in Donbass, because the west, or Biden and his sidekicks, will see to it that Donbass people have no right to survive.

    Thus, to fight Biden (who’s downright crazy with dementia) and the west plus their neo-nazi operatives, Russia will have to use NUKES to save and protect Donbass.

    Thus the fundamentals ULTIMATELY favor Russia.

    • Old Desert Coyote

      May 16, 2022 at 12:54 pm

      Actually the Combat Fundamentals do not favor Russia. The Russian Army has a central weakness that is exploited by the Ukrainians over and over again. The Russian army is a TOP DOWN organization where the high command (Regiment/Brigade or higher) makes all the tactical decisions and hand down the operations orders to subordinates who are expected to carry out those orders. This leads to a command structures that does not have its finger on the pulse of combat and is unable to react quickly to the changing pulse of the battle field.

      The Ukrainian army on the other hand is modeled more on the western approach to war fighting. This is essentially a bottom up approach. The higher headquarters gives broad general outlines like we are going to attain such and such in this direction. Just how the Objective is obtained is left to the Junior officers and senior sergeants to figure out. This means that those who are closest to the battle space have their finger on the pulse of the battle and can react quickly to a change in Tempo of the fight.

      This is why the Russian army has lost so many Brigade and Division commanders in this war. The High command structure is much closer to the battle space so they can make sure that their Operational commands are carried out on schedule.

  2. Dan Farrand

    May 14, 2022 at 1:52 pm

    “While every Ukrainian success should be celebrated”

    I have no wish to see Ukraine win this war so I don celebrate Ukrainian success. Ukrainian victory would mean continuing disorder across Eurasia for years to come. The insanity of Finland abrogating their treaty with Russia and effectively declaring war is just a symptom of what Russian failure in Ukraine will lead to.

    Ukraine has made a tragic mistake listening to the siren calls of America and the UK. The consequences of that mistake can be best contained by a Russian victory which would isolates Ukraine as a failed state dependent on the EU and hopefully result in Europe finally orienting itself to be something other than an American client.

    Ukrainian illusions of success will simply prolong the destruction and add to the casualty lists.

    • John Edwards

      May 15, 2022 at 10:28 am

      You’re obviously an anti-freedom & anti-American.

    • George

      May 15, 2022 at 10:46 am

      Ukraine will win because Russia is an empty facade masquerading as a country and a culture. I’m sorry, but listening to the completely apathetic reaction of Russian parents, wives, and girlfriends as soldiers fighting in Ukraine talk murdering and raping civilians. All they cared about was how much money he was making while raping murdering innocent people.

      You are a sick, sick individual if you cheer on invasion, destruction, looting on a state-level, murder and rape. You do NOT deserve peace, go live in Russia with the rest of the animals!

  3. Illurion

    May 14, 2022 at 8:19 pm

    Dear Mr. Davis:

    QUOTE:

    “Combat Fundamentals Still Favor Russia In Donbas.”

    …………..

    I do not think the PARENTS of the over 1,000 Russian troops that were killed yesterday in Ukraine WOULD AGREE.

    The Russians were killed when the Ukrainians WIPED OUT THEIR WHOLE 120 TANK CONVOY as it tried to cross a river.

    The Ukrainians also destroyed the Russian temporary-bridge, and the tugboat that brought it there.

    The Russians seem to have “Played Hookey” from school, and FORGOT THEIR “COMBAT FUNDAMENTALS.”

    There are now over 27,000 dead Russian troops and sailors in Ukraine.

    And the “Second Normandy” hasn’t even happened yet.

    In conclusion, don’t let FACTS get in the way of your little “Russia is winning” fantasy.

    • GEOFFREY ALP

      May 14, 2022 at 11:55 pm

      Well we see propaganda affecting peoples minds easily again, 78 or so tanks and armoured vehicles is not a major blow to Russia, and probably only 200-300 troops were killed. 27000 is probably high and again indicative of swallowing propaganda. The real facts are that Russia has not yet resorted to massive carpet bombings yet and are making slow progress. This is eating up Ukraine’s available manpower. One has to consider that there will be no food or much related production or work for wages for about two years after fighting stops. The consequences of trauma PTSD will be enormous. Russia is a commodities based economy and doesnt rely on the USA dollar. the West does. Fertiliser will be short for the whole world as Russia produces about 50% of it directly or indirectly. the EU despite what they say are not prepared for 12 months of gas and oil shortages. Costs of everything will increase enormously. The West has not considered this knock on effect at all. Biden wont survive the 2022 mid terms- he will be impeached as soon as the Republicans win both houses. Harris is equally as useless. So the USA will dump its EU partners through financial stress just like they did to Afghanistan. The West as we know it has just shot themselves in the foot over a stupid war that could have been resolved through proper adult diplomacy.

    • Vladolph Putler

      May 15, 2022 at 12:37 am

      Ukrainians fighting for their lives in Donbas? Nonsense. Russians are fighting for their lives in Donbas. And fleeing pell mell every time their idiot commanders come up with some new and brilliant plan that turns them wholesale into hamburger.

      Keep in mind- almost an entire BTG made it across that pontoon bridge. Only to put all their remaining effort towards retreat.

      No, the Ukrainians are fighting for their nation in Donbas. And while Russians fight for a political victory to prop up Putin the Oaf for Victory Day, Ukrainians fight for strategic gains such as cutting and threatening supply lines, taking territory, and inflicting blistering defeats with shocking casualties.

      Like the talking bobble heads that predicted Ukraine’s defeat in the first place, the bobble heads continue to constantly predict Russia pulling it together and becoming a competent, and thus, formidable force.

      But despite the wishful thinking of our duplicitous author- if it was going to happen, it already WOULD HAVE happened. And it hasn’t.

      • John Edwards

        May 15, 2022 at 10:32 am

        Great response. Loved it.

  4. Eddie Hoskins

    May 14, 2022 at 11:58 pm

    As having been an army Ranger. And seeing the Facts on the ground. Ukraine has a more than even chance of winning this war.the Only thing Russia has is numbers. Not tactical advantage.These people are fighting for their freedom and Not giving in.

    • Begemot

      May 15, 2022 at 3:40 pm

      Rangers are small unit tactical guys. Patrols, raids, ambushes. Small stuff. Big unit tactics (battalion and above) and operational level stuff is not what Rangers are trained in. You may be right, but it isn’t because you were a Ranger.

  5. F-18E

    May 15, 2022 at 3:31 am

    Biden is downright crazy with dementia, old age and possibly bse which is fatal.

    Explains why biden is acting like a cowboy with a free licence to shooting all enemies that his brain percieves as frontier apaches.

    Now this cowboy is backed by a war Congress not different from the nazist germany of 1930s ruling clique and you have a runaway war president who thinks his job is to make wars.

    But the crazy dogbarking war president can’t figure that once russia hits his sidekicks or bootlickers in europe with nukes, it would game over for his plans to emerge victorious.

    Biden must know he ain’t taking on cochise or geronimo or little pipe. He’s poking at someone who has nukes.

  6. They Call Me Mister T

    May 15, 2022 at 4:52 am

    Very good article, Daniel. It’s surprising how the slightest focus on actual combat presence makes it how clear how dire Ukraine’s position is. Oh, the vast majority of the Ukrainian effort is about “morale,” which actually makes sense in a volkssturm setting. But it’s no match for artillery and air defence.

    I’ll offer you a bit extra: Russia is withdrawing forces from areas like Kiev and Kharkiv because when the seal is tight around the groupings in Mariupol and Donbas, Russia doesn’t have to keep their forces in range of urban artillery.

    By the way, I do love the comments becoming hysterical over “Putler” and “Second Normandy.” The war hysteria in America reached a crescendo with the $40 billion “aid package.” Thanks to Rand Paul/ the baby formula crisis, the war stands to be much less popular- perhaps even unpopular. Zelensky is under pressure to deliver tangible territorial gains with an urgency Putin clearly doesn’t feel.

  7. George

    May 15, 2022 at 10:40 am

    How is the apologist clown for Putin’s terror allowed to keep writing for this publication? Reading back on each article, Mr Davis is quick to say in the first paragraph of each article that Vladimir Putin chose this war and that decision is his alone resulting in all of the murder, rape and destruction currently taking place as we speak in Ukraine.

    He theen proceeds to spend the remaining 8 paragraphs disagreeing with his own pronouncements about Putin. This guy makes his living denying the past as well as the agency of tens of millions of people and their governments who were clamoring to join NATO.

    I love this exhausted line of argumentation about NATO’s “incessant drive East” as if the organization is an automoton acting in a complete vacuum. NATO didn’t force anyone to do anything and you know it! It was the peoples of Eastern Europe who lived under the tyranny of the Soviets and NEVER want that to happen again who were DEMANDING Nato protection from Putin and his literal murderers and rapists in the military and inteliigence departments of the Russian Federation..

    This individual simply wants Ukraine to roll over for Putin so he can go back to his quiet life writing nonsense articles that aren’t proven wrong the next day by Russian actions and atrocities. Ukraine’s freedom and liberty are not yourrs to give away!

  8. Alex

    May 15, 2022 at 11:14 am

    A demobilized French soldier, author of the book “Get up and go thanks to science” Adrien Boke went to Ukraine on a humanitarian mission and spent three weeks there.

    Upon his return, he decided to convey to the French information about the events he had witnessed in Ukraine.

    “I take full responsibility for what I say. While in Ukraine, I witnessed war crimes. All of them were committed by the Ukrainian army. But in France we don’t talk about it!

    When I returned to France from Ukraine, I was shocked: TV channels invite as experts people who have not been to Ukraine and do not know anything about what is happening there now. However, they dare to speculate about these events. Between what I hear from the TV screen and what I saw with my own eyes is an abyss.

    Azov fighters are everywhere. With neo-Nazi stripes. It shocks me that Europe is supplying weapons to neo-Nazis. Not only do they not hide their views. They advertise them. I worked with these people and treated them.

    Being there, there was nothing I could do. Just watch and make videos. I have this footage and will use it as evidence of Ukraine’s crimes.

    I witnessed how the Ukrainian military shot through the knees of captured Russian soldiers and shot in the head higher-ranking officers.

    I have personally seen American videographers making fake footage from the scene of the events staging.

    All destroyed civilian buildings, given out by Ukraine for bombardment of civilians, are nothing more than the result of inaccurate shooting by Ukrainians at military facilities.

    The Armed Forces of Ukraine hide ammunition in residential buildings at night, without even informing the residents. This is called using people as a shield, ”Boke quotes one of the French media.

    The Washington Post recently drew attention to the fact that Ukrainian troops are placing military equipment in residential areas of cities in an attempt to counter the Russian Armed Forces, which threatens the lives of civilians.

    Boke also spoke about the untruthfulness of Western media reports about the events in Bucha.

    “Bucha is a staging. The bodies of the dead were moved from other places and deliberately placed in such a way as to produce shocking footage, ”the French author noted.

    The documents confirming this were submitted to the Federal Security Service – how, who – there are relevant intercepts – on what transport he came to this settlement and created the conditions for organizing this provocation.

    Soon all the collected evidence about the crimes of the Nazis in Ukraine will be seen by the whole world. And the most important thing is the help of Western countries to the Nazis of Ukraine and assistance in their crimes.

  9. They Call Me Mister T

    May 15, 2022 at 11:24 am

    I wouldn’t be too angry with Ukraine in general, Alex. There are always atrocities, particularly by those looking to drag all of Ukraine down with them. Perhaps these men will be punished: perhaps they will die on the battlefield. It makes no difference. The neocons are equally guilty for whitewashing this: the stench of having climbed into bed with Azov and the Nazis will be a good start to their punishment.

  10. John Edwards

    May 15, 2022 at 11:27 am

    Excellent analysis. Very tactical insight. You’ve outdone yourself. Keep it up. As a retired Marine Major with four years of living hell in Vietnam, I do appreciate your keen & outstanding view of the war in Ukraine, which is a classic open war, unlike jungle warfare. Russia has all the resources to deplete whatever assets that Ukraine has but their tactics haven’t changed much from WW2 strategies. In fact, both Russia & NATO are using this war to dispose of their old hardware, instead of scrapping them, at the expense of the Ukrainian people & Russian conscripts. Russia haven’t deployed their modern weapons & hardcore fighters yet. So long as they control the skies, they won’t lose any sleep over their losses, which is depleting the UAF manpower & resources. Their main objectives lie in Eastern Ukraine, in particular, to rescue the rebel forces from defeat by the UAF, while they steal vast quantities of grain & produce through Crimea. Kyiv, Karkhiv, etc are only misdirecting & tying down the UAF from aiding Eastern Ukraine. Russia will stop their advances, probably declare a ceasefire, after they’ve taken over Eastern Ukraine. Without Crimea & Eastern Ukraine, there’s nothing much left of Ukraine worthwhile for Russia because they’ll capture the industrial assets that Russia needs because the USSR based a lot of their technology in Ukraine, which was a mistake & an embarrassment for Russia. The West & NATO are powerless to prevent defeat in Ukraine, unless they’re willing to step into the fray & help the UAF take back Eastern Ukraine & Crimea. It was outright cowardice by Obama & NATO countries to let Russia take over Crimea without a fight because Sevastopol controls access to the Baltic Sea, which Russia has been having nightmares since they lost Ukraine. All in all, your analysis is exactly what NATO & Ukraine needs to know, Sir. I look forward to greater insights from you. Thank you.

  11. Alex

    May 15, 2022 at 3:03 pm

    Diplomats and other officials look remarkably helpless when asked about Ukro-Nazism. They just don’t know what to say! They start to somehow get out, talk about some insignificant or easily ignored things. For example, one diplomat, in response to a question about the Nazi Jew Zelensky, says that Zelensky put up a photo of a soldier with SS symbols. So what? They’ll say it’s an accident, the secretary made a mistake and all that. Another diplomat, in response to the same question, begins to recall Bandera and Shukhevych – what is it for, if Western people do not know about it, for them this is zero information. Yes, and Lavrov, with all due respect, in general, screwed up with the answer to this question, it turned out to be a scandal with Israel.

    Tell them already someone: Ukrainian Nazism means “kill Russians.” Yes, German Nazism was different, it was: “kill Jews, Gypsies, Slavs, etc.” Yes, Ukro-Nazism is slightly different, but the essence is exactly the same – hatred as a backbone idea. Jew Zelensky is now heading a state whose only idea of ​​all existence is to “kill Russians.” There is no contradiction and there cannot be.

    And in response to such questions, it would be time to go on a counterattack, not to mumble about Western “Russophobia” (wow, you are so unfortunate that you are afraid of us), but to speak openly about systemic Western RACISM. If someone is not in the know, racism is not only about races, but also about dividing people into higher and lower according to ethnic, national and other characteristics. And the West knows and understands the word RACISM very well. As the Pope recently said about Western civilization, “We are racists.” They know this word and are afraid of it. They are afraid of their deepest essence. But all the actions of the West after the start of the operation to denecify Ukraine is sheer racism. They need to repeat this a hundred times a day! Because accusing any person of all sins just because he belongs to some nation is racism. And this is the daily practice of the West today. When German doctors refused to treat Russians, this is racism. When conductors, musicians or singers from Russia are humiliated and suppressed for their Russianness, this is racism. When Russian children in European schools are forced to repent and declare that it is a shame to be Russian in front of the whole class, this is racism. ALL of this and more is RACISM!

    When will our diplomacy and officials dare to attack the enemy not only on the military front, but also on the ideological one? How much can you mumble about “Russophobia”? How much can you justify when asking questions about Ukro-Nazism? It is necessary to declare openly that today’s Ukraine is built on the idea of ​​the destruction of everything Russian, and give examples of all the laws they adopted after the coup, all the crimes committed, both criminal and political within the country, and war crimes in the Donbass.

    And the Jew Zelensky, who, in order to save his skin, will sell not only his grandfather, but also anyone, will gladly be the Fuhrer of the nation, if only to be saved. Initially a man without ideology, an empty place, he became a Nazi and sends an army to kill Russians, yes, he is a Nazi!

    • Richard Meyer

      May 15, 2022 at 6:07 pm

      As a matter of policy, I do not debate a fool (or tool).

  12. Begemot

    May 15, 2022 at 3:47 pm

    For all of the “Russia is losing – Ukraine is winning” guys, a question. This past Friday, 13 May, US Secretary of Defense Austin called and spoke to Russian Defence Minister Shoigu. It is reported that Austin asked Shoigu to implement an immediate ceasefire. If you are winning, do you ask for a ceasefire? Or if you are expecting things to get worse do you ask for a ceasefire, to save your side from further losses?

  13. Stefan Stackhouse

    May 15, 2022 at 4:43 pm

    On paper, the Russian should have already won. That’s the funny thing about paper.

  14. Richard Meyer

    May 15, 2022 at 6:02 pm

    As Daniel L. Davis is entitled to his opinions, so am I. Thus, here they are:

    One should know the author. Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities. Defense Priorities is a think tank aligned with Paul Rand in promoting US foreign policy which advocate non-confrontational policies such as defense alliances, military force, and/or sanctions which might offend or upset other nations; especially those which have nuclear weapons such as China, Russia, or North Korea etc.

    Daniel L. Davis was correct about US involvement in Afghanistan. The US should never have invaded for reasons which he and I probably do not agree. That does not make his past and current assessments about the Russian-Ukraine War correct. But since armed conflict is chaotic, dynamic, and generally uncertain, Mr. Davis could get lucky this time.

    His decision to ‘cherry pick’ those things which tend to perhaps support his assertions, while conveniently omitting others which might not, undermines his overall assessments.

    Mr. Davis’s use of the words could, if, maybe, and variations of possible far to often tend to make his opinion of the outcome dubious.

    He has written at least ten articles since January of this year detailing how NATO, led by the US, essentially caused the Russian-Ukraine War. While he has chosen to ignore Putin led Russia’s decades long desire to expand the 1992 Russian borders to the extend to, or beyond, the borders from the Soviet Union era. And ignoring Putin’s justification for invading his neighbors mirroring those of Hitler’s.

    In late June of 1941, if Mr. Davis would have been commenting on the “current trends and conditions,” he most likely would have recommended that the UK negotiate a peace treaty with Germany.

    And similarly, if commenting on the “current trends and conditions,” in February 1942 he would have most likely recommended that the US negotiate a peace treaty with Japan.

    Yet, Daniel L. Davis has raised the threat of a catastrophic nuclear exchange between Russia and the West perhaps as often, or more, than Putin. This without noting that any all-out nuclear exchange would most likely include China and Israel, and perhaps even India and Pakistan. A world-wide hellfire.

    When I was asked several times from late 2021 to February 22, 2022, if I thought Putin would invade Ukraine, I said “I do not know. I am not a mind reader. I think he is smart enough not to; but do not know if he is wise enough not to. But if he does, it will the biggest mistake of his life. The Ukrainian army is not the army of 2014. The Russia army is vastly overrated by most analysts. If Russia did not have nuclear weapons, it would be just a larger Iraq. Ukraine may not win, but the war will not be quick; and it will be bloody. Any victory will be a hard struggle for Russia, especially if the EU, NATO, and US provide strong support. NATO will stand off from direct involvement as long Russia does not attack a NATO member. Belarus will also most likely stand off from direct involvement because otherwise might result a larger uprising. If Russia attacks, there is little chance of a real victory.”

    There is little doubt in my mind that Mr. Davis would have agreed with my assessment.

  15. Alex

    May 15, 2022 at 6:06 pm

    A journalist from the United States, Lara Logan, during the broadcast of the Real America’s Voice program, accused the Western media of lying about the Russian special operation in Ukraine:

    “I really think there is so much misinformation right now. We have never seen anything like it. I’ve been covering military conflicts for 35 years now and I’ve never seen anyone with their fingernails decorated with the Ukrainian flag. I mean, we are being driven into such a framework where we have to hate Vladimir Putin and believe everything bad that is said about him and love Ukraine. There is simply no other position.”

    A lot of things are happening in Ukraine that we don’t talk about. This concerns the history of Ukraine, the Azov battalion, which is funded by the US and NATO. In the photographs, they are holding NATO flags and a swastika at the same time.

    They use the Nazi emblem from the SS. Everywhere in the Ukrainian army you can see this emblem of their cult. Even female soldiers wear this black badge of their cult.

    The White House pretends that it doesn’t matter that it’s only a small number of troops, but that’s not true. Azov has carved its way into eastern Ukraine through assassinations. We don’t want to admit it.

    That is why Crimea voted for independence, why Crimea wanted to be with Russia. The Western media and the West do not want to admit the reality that Western Ukraine supports the Nazis. There was the headquarters of the Nazis SS, – said the journalist.

  16. John

    May 16, 2022 at 10:13 am

    In the course of a special operation in Ukraine, documentary evidence was obtained that in the immediate vicinity of the Russian borders, in fact, components of biological weapons were created. In violation of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. Possible methods and mechanisms for destabilizing the epidemiological situation in the post-Soviet space were worked out.
    The Parliamentary Commission on Biolaboratories received confirmation of non-compliance by the United States and Ukraine with a ban on the development of bioweapons.
    Evidence has already been obtained in terms of non-compliance by the United States and Ukraine with their obligations to comply with the UN Convention on the Prohibition of the Development of Bioweapons.
    The Commission on Biolaboratories has begun analyzing the reports of the United States and Ukraine for 5 years on the implementation of the Convention on Bioweapons, in addition, the facts of providing false information by Washington and Kyiv to the Secretariat of the Conference on Bioweapons have been established.
    Consideration of these issues (about biolaboratories) will be held at the UN Security Council. The US authorities are obliged to answer many questions.
    Facts have been established that both the United States and Ukraine provided incomplete or inaccurate information. So there is a complete concealment in the reports of information on biological programs with the support of the US Department of Defense in Ukraine. All reports from Ukraine report a lack of national biosecurity research and development programs.
    1. In a number of cases, information on outbreaks of infectious diseases was not provided, which is a mandatory requirement.
    2. There were no reports of the participation of military personnel in the work of laboratories, as well as the facts of the transfer of biomaterials, funding of facilities and programs by the military departments.
    For example, in 2019, as part of a Pentagon program, two laboratories were built in Kyiv and Odessa for the State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection. The answer to the question why the United States needs secret military laboratories in Ukraine, which are not reported in the BTWC reports, is certainly related to the nature of research in the United States.
    There is also evidence of biological weapons research on patients in Ukrainian psychiatric hospitals.
    It is obvious that the Ukrainians were used in the same way as the Third Reich used at one time.

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