Since late August, Ukraine has driven Russian troops out of thousands of square kilometers of formerly occupied territory and are reportedly days from launching a renewed effort to capture the Russian-held city of Kherson. Many continue to write off the Russians, concluding the Ukrainian momentum is “irreversible,” implying Zelensky’s forces are on their way to winning the war by the end of this year. While serious analysts realize the war is far from over, there may be a growing danger to Ukraine few have considered; a vulnerability that could doom Kyiv to defeat.
When Russia launched its invasion last February, it initially appeared Kyiv was in danger of being surrounded and the regime captured. It didn’t take long, however, before Russia’s senior military leaders were exposed as being surprisingly inept at the strategic level, and its armed forces at being woefully unprepared for modern mobile warfare.
Why Russia Failed to Land a Knockout Blow in February
Russia violated one of the most fundamental principles of war at the outset. Carl von Clausewitz, the 18th Century Prussian general that penned the timeless strategy book, On War, wrote that a military commander should never bring all his “forces into play haphazardly,” but seek to concentrate them in a “decisive mass for the critical moment.” Once this decisive point had been identified and engaged, von Clausewitz continued, “it must be used with the greatest audacity.” Russia did nearly the opposite at the outset of its war against Ukraine.
Having allocated less than 200,000 total troops to try and subjugate a sprawling country of 41 million, Putin’s generals divided up this comparatively small force into four axes of advance, dissipating their strength everywhere. Had Moscow prioritized one area as the main effort and massed its forces there, it might have succeeded in overwhelming Zelensky’s troops and caused the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to collapse as a coherent fighting force. Instead, the opposite happened: by dispersing its strength, the Russians allowed the Ukrainian troops to contain the advance everywhere and quickly brought all four drives to a halt.
Once Putin’s offensive stalled, the insufficient number of troops on each axis became vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks. The first axis to fall was the Russian armored forces in the vicinity of Kyiv and Kharkiv. Faced with the reality of insufficient troop strength, Putin quickly withdrew his forces from the north, designated the Donbas as the priority effort, and concentrated his forces in the east. To support his main effort, Putin established economy of force missions east of Kharkiv and south in Kherson to protect his flank in the Donbas.
That redesignation made sense from Moscow’s perspective initially. From May through early July, it paid dividends, as Russia successfully captured large portions of the Donbas, reaching a high water mark with the capture of Lysychansk on 3 July. But by August Russian casualties began to pile up and, owing to the small invasion force, took the steam out of the attack. The UAF, having recovered from the psychological blow of being invaded, took advantage of Putin’s weaknesses.
Ukraine Strikes Back
Having mobilized hundreds of thousands of men in the opening days of the war, Ukraine covertly formed offensive formations in the north and south. Zelensky then did what Putin had failed to do, and concentrated his combat power where Russia was weakest – on the northern and southern flanks of the Donbas drive – and used masses of troops to overwhelm Russia’s weak economy-of-force formations, achieving up to an eight-to-one advantage in the Kharkiv region.
The moves caught Putin flat-footed and sent Russian lines reeling backwards in both Kharkiv and Kherson regions. But eventually, like the Ukrainians before them, the Russians recovered from the shock and have stiffened their defenses near the Oskil river in the north and along the Dnipro River adjacent to Kherson City in the south.
In response to Ukraine’s advances, Putin in September made a political move to annex the Ukrainian territory he occupied and a military move to mobilize up to 300,000 reservists. Zelensky is pressing his forces, as early as next week, to try and seize Kherson while Russian forces are still weak and before sizable reinforcements arrive. But Ukraine faces a bigger potential threat than merely more Russian formations coming to the relief of its defenders in Kherson.
What May Come Next
While Putin did belatedly recognize his initial error in dissipating his combat strength and then designated Donbas as the priority of effort, his generals showed remarkably little knowledge and creativity in how they conducted the offensive. Instead of seeking to isolate the Ukrainian defenders in their defensive positions and exploit an assailable weak flank, Russian generals plowed their troops head-on into the teeth of the defenses Ukraine had spent eight long years building.
The Russian drive eventually succeeded (mostly), but the cost to Russia in men and material was enormous. If Putin and his top military leaders reprise that lack of creativity again and mindlessly send another 100,000 troops to bludgeon the Ukrainian troops with frontal attacks, they will soak the battlefield in Russian and Ukrainian blood, but in the end may not have enough power to defeat the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
If that’s what Russia chooses to do, the UAF will have a legitimate shot at weathering the storm (though at great human cost). If, on the other hand, Russia learns from its strategic mistakes and pays attention to military history and combat fundamentals, Zelensky’s forces could be at great risk.
Ukraine’s Greatest Threat Comes from the Northwest, not from the North or East
When war broke out in February, Ukrainian troops in the Donbas were oriented directly east, were in their well-constructed and fortified defensive positions, ready for a frontal attack from Russia. That’s exactly what they got. Mentally, Ukraine was ready for the assault and showed remarkable courage and tenacity under scorching Russian rocket and artillery fire.
Ukraine slowly gave ground but extracted a premium price on the advancing enemy troops, eventually bringing Russia’s drive to a halt. In the current environment, Ukraine has again prepared its troops to face the expected next wave of Russian reinforcements and are likely mentally prepared again for a frontal assault from the east or north towards Kyiv (out of Belarus). Already, Zelensky has repositioned some troops to protect the capital city from a renewed Russian thrust entering from the Belarussian border.
We know that Russia has been stockpiling massive logistics necessary to support a large mobile force. In September alone, the Kremlin built up over 220,000 tons of fuel for its war machine in the six provinces bordering Ukraine. Moscow is clearly setting the stage for the deployment of large formations created as a result of Putin’s mobilization. The big question is: where will the blow land?
If Putin reprises the method he used in the Donbas and essentially tries to drive again towards Kyiv and into the teeth of the Ukrainian defenses, he runs the risk of again getting worn down by relentless UAF attacks, just as happened last February. Zelensky’s forces and population are very confident they could again thwart a Russian attempt to take Kyiv, no matter how long it took. But what if Putin doesn’t repeat his mistakes and attacks somewhere Zelensky isn’t expecting?
Since Russia long ago destroyed the bulk of Ukraine’s ability to produce military equipment and ammunition, Kyiv is wholly dependent on a non-stop stream of supplies from the West. The greatest threat to Ukraine’s ability to wage war, therefore, is the security of supply routes from their western borders to marshalling locations in the interior of their country. If Putin recognizes this vulnerability, he may mass his forces through Belarus again, but bypass Kyiv completely and strike towards Ukraine’s western borders.
The single greatest vulnerability for Ukraine is a Russian drive from Belarus, through Lutsk to Lviv. The vast majority of Ukrainian troops are presently massed in the country’s southeast about to fall on Kherson, the far east defending in Donbas, and in the northeast pressing the Russians in the Kharkiv region; there are almost no sizable formations in the western regions.
One scenario would be for Putin to position his attack formations in a way that would seem to validate Kyiv’s assumptions on where Russia would send its next wave. They might mass a sizable troop concentration east of Donbas and an even bigger concentration of forces north of Kyiv in Belarus. Doing so would make it appear Russian formations were about to pour into the Donbas to reinforce the current offensive and launch large forces south towards Kyiv in a second attempt to take the capitol.
Before Russia had a chance to launch, Zelensky would nearly have to move troops from the south to reinforce the Donbas grouping and bring significant reserves into Kyiv to protect the city. Russia might then move its troops in strength into the Donbas, fixing the entire eastern portion of the Ukraine army in place to try and repulse the attack. Meanwhile, the northern Russian force would strike, not to Kyiv, but continue west and drive towards Lutsk with an ultimate objective of Lviv for the purpose of severing nearly all resupply routes from the West. By the time Ukraine’s generals realized Russia was moving in force to the west, it would be nearly impossible to reposition its troops in time.
With the land route from Poland cut off, there would be virtually no way for Ukraine to sustain its war effort for more than a few months. The only other route the West could use to get war material to the UAF would be over the Carpathian Mountains along the Slovak and Romanian borders; an extremely difficult and restrictive path. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas would soon run out of artillery ammunition and rockets for its HIMARs systems, and it would no longer be able to get replacements for any of its armor.
Russia, meanwhile, would have an uninterrupted supply line to its troops and would be able to relentlessly hammer away along all fronts. It would then only be a matter of time before the sheer weight of Russian weaponry and troop concentrations – combined with a dwindling ammunition supply on the Ukraine side – could bleed Zelensky’s forces dry and force Ukraine to face the choice between seeking a negotiated settlement or suffer outright defeat.
How Ukraine Could Mitigate the Risk
As of this writing, Russia has not tipped its hand. Putin is building up his war machine in Russian regions bordering Ukraine and from their current marshalling areas, could strike in any number of directions, against a wide array of objectives. For all we know, Putin may continue his streak of questionable (or outright abominable) strategic and operational decisions and attack in areas and in ways against which the UAF will have the best chance of success.
But his generals may also see the same vulnerability I see, and he could order some version of the above scenario. Since such a course of action could prove fatal to Zelensky’s country, he must now begin taking preventive measures and creating contingency plans. A moment of truth will come for Ukraine in the coming months and Zelensky will be faced with some excruciating choices no matter what.
Whether the UAF takes Kherson in the coming weeks or whether Russia holds it won’t have much of an impact once Putin’s mobilized formations are in position and ready to launch their attacks. In the best of circumstances for Zelensky, he is going to face tremendous challenges. The successes he has won since the beginning of September have come at great cost, in terms of both personnel and equipment. It takes time to replenish losses and train new troops. But Ukraine will require not simply to replace losses, but to grow the number of troops considerably to meet the expected Russian attacks.

Ukraine T-84 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Stalin is said to have once quipped that “quantity has a quality all its own” during World War II as justification for sending masses of troops to defeat his German opponents. In the Battle of Kursk, for example, the Red Army defeated the Wehrmacht in the largest tank battle of the war – but at the cost of a mind-blowing 800,000 Soviet casualties. It is possible Putin could send masses of mobilized troops, equipped with old T62 and T72 tanks and other outdated armor, and still overwhelm Ukrainian defenders. Zelensky, then, will have to build up his strength as quickly as he can but also formulate the best strategies possible.
His task is much harder than many believe. Zelensky and his general staff must prepare for the possibility that Russia does just reprise their initial pathways and try to overwhelm the UAF defenders with sheer numbers. But he also has to devise contingency plans for the most dangerous course of action described above. Failing in the first could cost staggering numbers of casualties and drag the war on indefinitely; failing in the second could cost Ukraine the war in months.
Given that time is so limited, Ukraine should cease offensive operations in the north, and along with their troops in the Donbas, begin, immediately digging in and building fortifications and multi-layered defensive works in anticipation of the next Russian attack. Kyiv should set a limit for how long it tries to capture Kherson, and as quickly as possible, build defensive works there as well. One way or another, there is a high probability that Ukraine’s troops in both the north, east, and south will face renewed Russian assaults this winter.
Meanwhile, Zelensky should begin building a reserve force on the western side of Kyiv. The force should be mobile, include a meaningful amount of armor, infantry, and self-propelled artillery. This reserve should be positioned near key east-west railroad lines. If the Russians stick to their old playbook and attack Kyiv from the north, that force could quickly move to defend the city. If Putin instead does the unexpected and moves to the Ukraine/Polish border, Zelensky’s reserve forces could quickly move via rail to defend Lviv or Lutsk. That still won’t guarantee success, but without a ready force, properly positioned, and the presence of an existing contingency plan, the chances of successfully interdicting an unexpected Russian drive west are very low.
Conclusion
This is war. It is horrible, sometimes turns the best of men into beasts, and always leaves bitter scars – both physical and emotional – on everyone it touches. Combat is usually chaotic, unpredictable, and stressful in ways few can imagine who haven’t experienced it – and “easy answers” don’t exist. No matter what happens with the current round of battles in Kherson and Kharkiv, it’s what comes next that could determine the war’s outcome. Zelensky will be faced with enormous pressure to respond to dynamic events.
Every choice he makes will have negative consequences and force his side to accept risk; there is no single right answer. Yet he will be required to make decisions with life-and-death consequences. Russia has thus far demonstrated sometimes shocking levels of incompetence, at the highest levels. But the Russian army has also shown a tenacity of its own and an ability to fight well in some battles. Zelensky has to prepare for the appearance of both sides of that Russian coin.

A Russian tank under attack by a drone from Ukraine. Image Credit: YouTube/Ukrainian military.
Ukraine has to be ready to meet an enemy that seeks to bludgeon its way to victory using sheer numbers and overwhelming firepower, and it has to be ready to face an improving foe that learns from mistakes and comes back stronger and craftier in subsequent battles. Despite all the present euphoria in the West at recent Ukrainian success, Ukraine still faces an enemy with a number of strategic advantages.
Whether Zelensky can weather the coming Russian onslaught will depend in large measure on how prepared he is to meet Putin’s most dangerous moves.
Author Expertise: Now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.

The Al U Know
October 22, 2022 at 8:50 am
This is probably the most succinct summary of military events of things so far that I have read. Online it is hard to follow, but sifting through the meme,angry insulting, soldier/tank/bombing posting there are honest takes. Even in lies the truth is revealed.
Thanks Daniel David
Now Gen. Surovkin sounds like a beast when he was in Syria. It will be a question of how much the Russian infrastructure and doctrine is based off the Soviet one, and how much leeway/creativity has in changing from Stalin’s ‘quantity has a quality of its own’.
Also, mid terms in America.
Also, winter soon.
Also, Zaphoriza NPP and now some dam could be wild card factors.
pagar
October 22, 2022 at 9:39 am
Unlikely.
Russia would be far better off geolocating zelensliyy’s real time position or location and then whoosh off a kinzhal from a MiG-31, or a salvo of kh-31 from a bomber flying over the black sea.
Zelenskiyy sounds and acts like someone frkm hitlerr’s inner circle, especially joseph goebbels.
With zelenskiyy out of the picture, biden’s game in europe will come a cropper and his 2024 dreams will come crashing down on him and democrat party.
Neil Ross Hutchings
October 22, 2022 at 10:19 am
The issue that remains to be discussed in detail is where the optimum long term defensive positions for Russia would be located if Russia is successful in retaining any portion of Ukranian soil, I would think Moscow would like to minimize the long term costs of that operation if no ceasefire agreement is reached. Moscow seems now to be content with holding the left bank of the Dnipro at Kherson up to Zaporizhia across to the Donbass. I don’t know anything about the terrain or military strategy and logistics but I remain confused why Moscow didn’t first aim to occupy all the territory east of the Dnipro. Maybe Putin is waiting to decide on its next military strategy based on the outcome of the U.S. elections.
TheWoodsman
October 22, 2022 at 10:30 am
And with what arms will they take Kyiv? Rusty AKs carried by untrained conscripts? Obsolete T-64s on loan from Belarus? North Korean artillery shells? Russia is Winchester. They’re hurting so bad for munitions they are using S-300s to attack ground targets.
Adam
October 25, 2022 at 2:26 am
I guess they are using S-300 missile because they have plenty of them and they are hypersonic missiles, difficult to intercept.
Gary Jacobs
October 22, 2022 at 10:46 am
As usual, Davis seeks to focus on doom and gloom for Ukraine while leaving out several key factors. Typical.
It’s fine to game out potential scenarios, but Davis is so heavily invested in Russia winning that this type of cherry picking piece is no surprise anymore.
Although it is interesting that he has finally acknowledged many of the particulars that he got completely wrong over the course of time [without explicitly saying he was wrong] such as his early and incorrect claim Ukraine’s Kherson offensive had failed…and that Ukraine had actually conducted a fighting retreat west of Lysychansk to extract high casualties on the Russians while taking up more defensible positions on higher ground… the Russians have been basically stopped cold on their main advance at Soledar and Bakhmut with such minor give and take of meters of land so as to really count this as a frozen front.
Several other things Davis fails to acknowledge:
The Ukrainians defeated the Russians in Kyiv without their own large armored formations. They used a lot of ad hoc territorial defense forces mixed with special forces, hit and runs, as well as a lot of ATGMs. There are now thousands upon thousands more ATGMs in the hands of the Ukrainians than there are T62s [which were not made to withstand modern ATGMs] with the Russians, or any other Russian tanks for that matter. Most ATGMs also easily outrange T62s. Ukraine is a country of 40Million+, the vast majority of whom are against Russia, especially in the northwest. An invading army will be massively outnumbered again. Just as the last time, even 15year old kids who fly drones will contribute to Ukraine’s defense.
As well, The Ukrainians will be at close to 50 HIMARS equivalent soon [including the M270 variants], with more on the way in the medium term ordered from Lockheed Martin. The Russians have no answer for them, and a large army coming in from the north would be extremely vulnerable to even a small handful of HIMARS. The Ukrainians did not have HIMARS when they defeated the Russians at Kyiv last time. The Russians will likely fare even worse attacking from the north this time.
Furthermore, Davis makes no effort to explore what this type of escalation by Russia would do for the calculus of the US and NATO countries. At almost every stage the US and NATO have denied Ukraine certain weapons. Including HIMARS. Every time Russia has escalated, and as Ukraine has proven to be extremely resilient fighters who use NATO weapons responsibly… Ukraine has received more capable weapons.
This type of Russian escalation could be exactly what triggers Biden to allow Ukraine to have ATACMs. It could also trigger a Berlin Airlift situation, or a breaking of the naval blockade in the Black Sea. None of that is certain, but none of that is even explored as a possibility by Davis.
Davis talks about the Russians potentially cutting of supplies, and yet he leaves unexplored what the Russians would have for logistics in such an invasion. The Russians rely on trains to transport much of their supplies. Davis mentions none of what would be available to them coming from an invasion in the northwest. The mud season is quickly coming to Ukraine, especially in the north, and just as the Russians found out last year, sticking to the roads in long columns leaves them very vulnerable to the Ukrainians.
Also unexplored are the fresh supply of NATO trained troops coming to Ukraine…as well as the potential for Ukraine to launch yet another offensive in Zaporizhia before Russia can launch in the North. If the Ukrainians cut get to Tokmak they cut the one rail line going east to west in South Ukraine from Russia. If they get to Melitopol they cut they completely cut the land route roads from Russia to Crimea. The Russians have also announced the Kerch Bridge cant be repaired until July 2023, and the winter weather limits the use of ferries/supply boats. The Ukrainians would then have put Putin in quite a conundrum… does Putin continue to try and invade from the north?…or does he try and reinforce the Russian effort in the south to relieve Crimea?
Also unexplored is the on going Russian retreat from Kherson and the potential to capture more equipment for Ukraine. The Ukrainians repeatedly destroyed all Russian efforts to create river crossing with heavy transport capabilities. If the Russians are forced to leave behind all their heavy equipment to save their troops… The potential capture of another massive haul of equipment from Russia would do a lot to supply Ukraine’s army without the need for Poland or Romania. Again this is not certain, but considering how much equipment the Ukrainians have already captured and turned right around to use against Russia…it should be explored in this type of hypothetical.
Bottom line: Ukraine has anticipated just about every move the Russians have made since Feb 24…and I expect they have a plan to cut short any attempt to invade from the northwest area as well…but Davis does nothing to explore what Ukraine’s potential ways to defeat such an invasion might be making his exercise in hypothetical Russian escalation largely unserious…and exposing him, yet again, as a cherry picking doom and gloom merchant desperately looking for ways he can prove that Russian can win so he can finally claim he was right all along.
Ben Leucking
October 22, 2022 at 2:36 pm
Gary, very well said, sir.
Davis also left out mention of the Pripet marshland, which covers 104,000 square miles of southwest Belarus and northern Ukraine. These marshes and bogs further restrict the routes available for heavy armor and mechanized invasion forces, regardless of their geographic objectives in Ukraine.
Given the consistent low quality of his analyses, Daniel Davis gives the appearance of being an unsuccessful charity project by 1945.
Froike
October 23, 2022 at 1:05 pm
Hi Gary….You should be writing for 1945. Mr Davis writes well, but it seems his Nose is buried deep in Putins Keester.
Ukraine has been preparing for an attack from Belarus for Months. NATO has been giving them Military Intelligence Information since the beginning. They seem to know Putin’s moves in Real Time.
War is horrible, but has always been a sad part of Human History.
My prayers are with The Brave Ukrainian People! Never give up the right to a Democratic Government, Liberty, and Freedom!
Brian McCarthy
October 23, 2022 at 1:38 pm
Thanks for the cold slap of sanity. Perhaps Davis just raided his bourbon crate too much and hit his stash of oxy before writing this dreck. Retired at hitting a lieutenant colonel did he? What the heck did he do “deoloyed to four war zones”? Media relations? Legal work? Community relations? HR paperwork or being in charge of paper supplies? If it was even remotely operational I expect he would trumpet it. This is an intellectually masturbatory fantasy. Like suggesting that Hitler’s best move in 1944 in the West was to invade Scotland from Norway. Poland has positioned its troops on the border with Belarus, much of which is historic Poland or Poland-Lithuania. Was does he presume they would do. The Hungarians, who for complicated political reasons are the least sympathetic to Ukraine, would have to take such a move as a direct and imminent threat, unless they are insane. They would have to support Poland and Romania.
The Pripet Marshes lie in the exact area he is proposing vast mechanized armies moving through between Poland and Romania. Both Hitler and Stalin, and every army since remotest antiquity has avoided this area for good reason, especially in winter and the muddy, rainy seasons that preceed and follow it. Nothing has changed the terrain. Also the US has moved major forces to the eastern Romanian border on [email protected] and west end of his propsed operational area and made it clear that NATO would have to regard direct major Russian moves there as an imminent threat of invasion. This says nothing about the political instability of Belarus, whose leader os clearly terrified of the potential consequences coming his way. Finally, conducting complicated mechanized offensive operations in winter with poor logistics, ill equipped and barely trained forced conscripts who seem to have little motivation against an now trained and organized more NATO style army with a recent tradition of unbroken victoy, on their home ground, and who are highly patriotically motivated seems like the perfect recipe for a catostrophic and epic disaster. Something on the scale of the Greek Army collapse in Anatolia in 1922.
Gary Jacobs
October 23, 2022 at 10:08 pm
Ben, Froike, Brian,
Great info about the marsh/swamp. When I started Googling that location, ironically the first result was “Pripyat Marshes massacres”, which is the first Nazi mass murder of Jews during WWII. Of course Jews were confined to the Pale of Settlement, which includes this area, by Catherine the not-so-Great, and subsequent Russian tyrants.
Now it will be Putin’s Fascists that will die en masse if they decide to invade from that location. There looks to be at least 500,000 Ukrainians north of Lviv along the Polish border between Lutsk and Rivne alone. Just east of Lviv, Ternopil has 225,000, And Lviv has another 700,000 Ukrainians.
Sorry, but 200,000 poorly trained Russian+Belarus troops are not going to try and occupy areas with well over 1.5 Million Ukrainians and completely seal the border with Poland. Especially in this area with a population near %100 hostility towards Russian Imperialism. They have all seen the torture chambers and mass graves. They know they will have to all do their part to fight against the Russians.
Bottom line: Davis and Putin are living in fantasy land if they think this is a winning strategy. Thanks everyone for chipping in with important information. Most appreciated.
Chris
October 23, 2022 at 3:49 pm
Pretty mind-boggling to read most of the comments here. Daniel Davis is pro-Ukraine, but feels the necessity to actually tell the truth about the military situation. Not good enough. Apparently, real patriotism to many is always say your side is right and your side is winning regardless of the facts.
I have one question for our audience: who raining down missiles on Ukraine right now? It can’t be Russia because all the real pro-Ukrainian articles that would have been acceptable to the posters on this site have been telling us that Russia has been running out of missiles since March:
320 missiles in a day: Russia targets short-range ballistic missiles at Ukraine; what is the result? – WION – Mar 2, 2022
Russia running short on guided missiles, firing indiscriminately – Ukraine – Jerusalem Post – March 17, 2022
Russia Running Out of Precision Munitions in Ukraine War Pentagon Official – US News – Mar 24, 2022
Russia running short of precision missiles, say western officials – Financial Times – Apr 29, 2022
SCORCHED EARTH Now humiliated Putin is running out of MISSILES in desperate bid to defeat Ukraine, UK armed forces chief tells TalkTV – Sun – May 5, 2022
Putin ‘running out of missiles’ amid claims quarter of Russian Army now lost – City A.M. – May 6, 2022
Is Russia running out of missiles? US, Russia send mixed messages – Jerusalem Post – May 16, 2022
Explainer: Is Russia Running Low on Missiles? – Moscow Times – May 17, 2022
Has Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Missiles? – SOFREP – May 23, 2022
Russia ‘running out’ of precision weapons – UK Defense Journal – Jun 11, 2022
Russia fires five-and-a-half ton Cold War-era missiles designed to destroy aircraft carriers at Ukrainian forces in the Donbas after running out of precision rockets, MoD says – Daily Mail – Jun 12, 2022
Vladimir Putin running short of missiles as Russian forces turn to old weaponry stock – Mirror – Jul 8, 2022
Putin left scratching head as Russia RUNS OUT of missiles to make ground attacks – Express – Jul 23, 2022
Will Russia Run Out of Precision-Guided Munitions? – National Interest – Aug 11, 2022
Russia Has Run Out of Long-Range Missiles to Terrorize Ukraine – !945 – Aug 20, 2022
No more than 45% missiles that Russia had before the war remain Chief Directorate of Intelligence – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 27, 2022
Russia ‘running out of Iskander and Kalibr missiles’ – The New Voice of Ukraine / Yahoo – Aug 27, 2022
Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims Russia Is Running Low On Missiles – The Drive – Aug 27, 2022
Russian Federation will run out of shells, artillery and armoured vehicles by year end – Ukrainska Pravda – Aug 31, 2022
Russia Might Run Out of Weapons, Ammunition By End of Year: Report – Newsweek – Aug 31, 2022
Russia Is Running Out of Missiles. That’s Bad News for Ukraine – Defense Post – Sep 1, 2022
Alexander Kovalenko: when Russia will critically run out of missiles – Odessa Journal – Sep 2, 2022
Russia Resorting to Out of Date Missiles as Weapon Stocks Run Low: Ukraine – Newsweek – Sep 4, 2022
Ukraine believes Russia has less than 50 hypersonic missiles left because it can’t get the chips needed to make more: report – Business Insider – Sep 6, 2022
Out Of Missiles! Russia Is Left With ‘Limited Stock’ Of Hypersonic Weapons Due To Microchip Shortage – Ukraine – Eurasian Times – Sep 7, 2022
So if Daniel Davis is not to your liking go back to the mainstream media where the only thing (in print) that is true is the date.
Gary Jacobs
October 23, 2022 at 9:38 pm
Chris,
Pretending Davis is pro-Ukraine is a bit absurd at this point. You focus on the Russian missile supply, but Davis has been repeatedly claiming Ukraine’s defeat over the course of time…only to be proven wrong over and over and over again.
As for Russian missile supply itself, there may be some media outlets that have declared their supply exhausted too soon… and yet the fact that the Russians have turned to Iran to supply long range drones, and quite likely soon ballistic and/or cruise missiles shows that in fact the Russians are running out of long range precision missiles.
As well, after the Kerch Bridge was bombed, the Russians made a big deal about launching 100+ missiles in the 1st salvo. they havent gone over 40 in a day since, but it’s usually a lot less. And the vast majority of what they are firing at is far from the actual battlefront.
According to the Guardian, which was also citing Reuters, “The Iranian sale of missiles to Russia took place following a series of meetings including one in Moscow on 18 September and another on 6 October when Iran’s first vice-president, Mohammad Mokhber, two senior officials from Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards and an official from the Supreme National Security Council visited Moscow.”
Reuters cited an Iranian official briefed on the October trip saying: “The Russians had asked for more drones and those Iranian ballistic missiles with improved accuracy, particularly the Fateh and Zolfaghar missiles family.”
The two missiles are capable of striking targets at distances of 300km [185 miles] and 700km [435 miles] ‘respectively’.
In theory the Russians have their own missiles that are in precisely this range. If they had plenty of their own supply, and if their actual supply were actually very precise… they should have no need to buy either missiles or drones from Iran.
For people really studying the situation [and not looking for media sound bites] it was always understood that the Russians had to keep some missiles in strategic reserve in case of a full war with NATO. As it became clear that NATO itself would not engage, Russia could dip into its stock further to conduct retaliations for something like the Kerch Bridge being bombed. And it has been attempting to find work arounds to continue some production, including cannibalizing parts from older/other models. They have also been using S300 air defense missiles in land attack mode.
Bottom line: Russia is in serious trouble, and none of its actions for quite some time indicate it is a competent force with a deep supply of capable weapons. That includes tanks, troops, and missiles. The idea that Davis thinks the Russians will magically have victory with a new offensive is hard to describe as anything but wishful thinking
Unfortunately the mud/rain season came to Ukraine a few weeks early this year. Especially in the north. And yet still the Russians are losing. There are a few other factors at play but it may be that it more major advances in the northeast have to wait until winter freezes and hardens the ground.
In the south, the Russians are in very bad shape and the next 3 weeks in Kherson will be especially interesting to see how the retreat unfolds. will they completely leave the city? Or will they leave behind some canon fodder to engage in urban combat as the entire rest of the force goes to the south east bank of the river?
Serhio
October 25, 2022 at 12:49 am
Gary Jacobs
“In the south, the Russians are in very bad shape and the next 3 weeks in Kherson will be especially interesting to see how the retreat unfolds. will they completely leave the city? Or will they leave behind some canon fodder to engage in urban combat as the entire rest of the force goes to the south east bank of the river?”
Let’s note this forecast. How much money are you willing to bet that exactly in a month (if you want in two months) Kherson will remain Russian? Or is this idle chatter?
Gary Jacobs
October 25, 2022 at 10:23 am
Serhio,
LoL, the only forecast in there is about 3weeks to reveal what the Russian strategy is. The actual fight for Kherson could take quite a bit longer. And as the ISW noted yesterday, they assess that the Russians are evacuating non essential personnel, and are fortifying their positions inside the city for urban combat.
That still isnt a winning strategy. And if they really dig in for urban combat…my prediction would be sometime between Jan 1 – March 1 that the city is liberated by Ukraine. Even then a number of factors are at play, including the weather. The rain season came early this year by weeks. And this week alone calls for 3-4 days of rain in Kherson. That means no drones, and few satellites can look in real time. Ukraine actually cares about its troops…so they likely wont advance until the weather clears. But advance they will…and Russia will continue to lose.
Have a liberating day.
Serhio
October 25, 2022 at 9:45 pm
Gary Jacobs
Do I understand correctly that you are not ready to confirm your words with your wallet?
Jim
October 22, 2022 at 11:16 am
I think a vital question is how much in the way of reserves of soldiers & equipment does the Ukrainian military hold back from the anticipated offensive in Kherson?
I know well over half the readers anticipate Ukrainian victory @ Kherson.
Well, if that happens… the usual suspects will crow “victory”… Okay… deservedly so.
But for the sake of argument… if Russia decisively turns back the offensive… and… the “scuttlebutt” is that Ukraine is “putting everything they have” into Kherson… Then what do they have left to fight with?
That is why the reserve question is so important.
If they keep reserves… then they’ll keep fighting, we know that.
But in my opinion (being a buck private armchair warrior) if Ukraine breaks their pick on Kherson (no reserves), then the war will be effectively over.
My take is that Russia will be ready for large military offensives come middle to late November… with a throw in the kitchen sink loss @ Kherson Ukraine will not have the capacity to prevent those offensives.
It will be evident (one way or another): this will be measured in territory & cities.
It’s the only way to measure facts on the ground… everything else can be spun or lied about.
The Al U Know
October 22, 2022 at 12:10 pm
Concur in many ways.
Also, 5 hours ago Shoigu and Austin talked on the phone. Shoigu’s reported to have said that the Russians are making Kherson a “fortress”. Urban defenders usually held an advantage, just ask the Ukrainians. I will not speculate on its strength, though I also know that just yesterday Ukraine and Russia were both accusing each other of blowing up a dam up Dnipro River. Area denial perhaps, or an easy cop-out for either side to take.
Yrral
October 22, 2022 at 5:27 pm
Jacob,lost cause
Freeborn John
October 22, 2022 at 12:18 pm
Daniel is rubbish at predicting future events. Now in October he has realised what he should have known by February 28, i.e. that Putin’s knockout blow failed and the 20:1 ratio of industrial capacity that the West has over Russia makes the defeat of Putin inevitable.
Finally after 8 months Daniel has recognised that the supply of western weapons is the decisive factor so he now comes up with an incredible plan for Putin to take the West of Ukraine to cut this supply off! But such a western attack is impossible for Putin to implement who lacks the resources to do it and any element of surprise.
The Russian army have shown they can’t operate effectively more than 100km from their own border so how will they support operations so far west? Such a plan would also require the political and logistical support of Belarus which will not be forthcoming as they are better able than Daniel to see the game is up for Putin. Belarus simply will not want to tie the end of their own regime to that of the end of Putin’s.
Daniel Davis talks about Clausewitz but his record is that of an employee of the Kremlin troll farm.
NoMalarkey
October 22, 2022 at 11:17 pm
I just thank God that Mr. Davis is no longer serving in the US Army. He’s been wrong on the Ukraine/Russia war from the beginning. He must be on someone’s payroll…..Putin, you out there?
call me Stupid
October 23, 2022 at 7:03 pm
Mr John, I’m just curious. About the “20:1 ratio of industrial capacity that the west has over Russia” Was that before someone blew up northstream 1&2 or after? So after Rusia was climbing out of a recession while Europe/US are entering 1?
Fact is that Ukraine (however brave they are) cannot survive whitout extensive help from the West and that there is no animo in Europe to keep paying for the war. Is there still animo in the US for this?
From March i’m reading about the Russians running out of ammo but … it didn’t happen. Instead it’s in Ukraine where the lights went out and trains did stop running this week, after they were flooded by (cheap) kamikazi drones.
A conflict as this has more levels to it. Politics & Economics are also important. Look at the protests in Paris, Berlin, Praag …. With Hungarian and Italian leadership already speaking against the war. The current leadership in the West may want to support Ukraine but (after comming winter troubles) the summer’23 leadership wont. In my personal opinion the ground war will be over by summer ’23 with (if nothing changes the NATO commitment level) the Russians occupying all Ukrainian territory they choose to occupy.
Also, I keep reading (in the comments here) how poorly the Russians preformed. But did they? Really?
With only 200.000 soldiers they succeeded in occupying 20% (today after the counter offensive still 15%) of Ukraine, controling about 75% of Ukranian GDP. They did that against an entrenched and numerical superior (600.000 soldiers) enemy. I’m sorry, but I wont call that “poor preformance”. Surely they made a lot of errors and a lot of Russian sodiers died for those errors. And yes, they sure as hell didn’t complete the task they had to do. But (I think) we all agree that occuping a country, with 45 million residents, with only 200.000 soldiers isn’t a very realistic goal. So, how can anyone say that this Russian Army preformd poorly? Please, state your references in this, as no Army in the history of warfare can boost such statistics to my knowledge. Not even the Germans in WW2
On top comes that the Russians have already won the political level of this conflict. As the “golden billion” will find out, the 6 billion people living in Mr Josep Borrell’s “wilderness”, don’t support Ukraine and don’t like the West. You already see the change in attitude happening with for example Saudi Arabia, Opec+, Iran, Quatar, Nigeria,… just saying no to requests from the West. Unthinkable a year ago.
So, personaly, I think that the ground war part of this conflict will be over by next summer. With an unfortunate Ukraine a lot smaller in size.
The economic & political war however will be far from over. Probably ruining Europe, depleting the US and Russia, to reveal the real winner in this conflict: China
Michael Droy
October 22, 2022 at 12:30 pm
I’m sure he was more sensible 6 months ago – I think he has been got at.
The Russia “Kiev and Kharkov” illusion was a deliberate distraction with no intention of taking either. With 23,000 men you couldn’t hold Kharkov, let alone Kiev with a hostile local population.
It did mean Ukraine left the dug in positions in front of Donbas undermanned.
Ukraine has lost 100k dead. Russia around 15k.
It has been artillery war throughout – as one would expect in Ukraine and as Nato should have been prepared for for the last 30 years.
Russia have outfired the Ukrainian AND Nato weapons by about 10 shells to one.
The very idea that Kiev at any time could have been doing well in this kind of fighting is quite bizarre.
I’m sure the Lt Col knows this full well.
Pierre
October 23, 2022 at 7:18 am
I agree with you and have been sayin this. No way Russia came to capture Kyiv.
Jim
October 22, 2022 at 12:51 pm
John, you make a statement:
“…the 20:1 ratio of industrial capacity that the West has over Russia makes the defeat of Putin inevitable.”
Overall, yes, but not in military industrial capacity.
That is why prediction after prediction and claim after claim… “Russia is exhausted militarily”… out of missiles, out of heavy armor, out of ammo, out of trained soldiers, out of logistics… so far, all this has failed to come to pass.
I guess you’re still waiting… expectantly… smug in your assurance… as stated above.
But what if you are wrong, John?
Freeborn John
October 22, 2022 at 1:53 pm
I am happy to wait Jim. A long war is one Russia cannot win. Indeed Putin’s only chance was a 1-week war which is why I called it for Ukraine on February 28 just 4 days in.
Matt
October 22, 2022 at 12:56 pm
The author certainly hopes so.
Enfield
October 22, 2022 at 1:28 pm
Very hard to know where the offensive will land but probably first the Red Giant needs to eliminate the threat of UAF forces in Kharkiv oblast as it is a big problem for DPR/LPR. UAF forces are relatively exposed in that area. It would be a sensation if the Red Giant leaves UAF forces untouched in Kharkiv oblast. There are possibilities in all kinds of military maneuvers for the Red Giant and something will with some certainty happen right there.
Goran
October 22, 2022 at 2:29 pm
Davis: “Whether Zelensky can weather the coming Russian onslaught will depend in large measure on how prepared he is to meet Putin’s most dangerous moves.”
Brilliant Captain Obvious, and there I was, thinking this whole time it’s the least dangerous moves that one should focus on. I gotta say, without the perceptive mind of Daniel Davis, most of us would just be stumbling around, confused and soiling ourselves.
This article might be my favorite of his so far, it’s a beautiful synergy of being a twelve year old, clawing towards an assigned word count and clumsy efforts in trying to get Ukrainians to go look for Sasquatch around Lutsk.
Davis’ saying; “Ukraine should cease offensive operations” is an indictment of his entire analytical opus as he spent almost a year explaining how Ukrainians need to surrender and fast. Now he wants them to take a chunk of their offensive potential from the areas where combat is ongoing, to park it somewhere northwest and keep it idle. By golly, it’s almost like Davis wants Ukrainians to lose 🙂
And one more thing, this feeble attempt at pulling a fast one is built around his following premise; “But his generals may also see the same vulnerability I see”. So, this guy, who by the way didn’t even make it to the rank of colonel, armed with only internet access and ill-deserved sense of confidence, sees one area of Ukraine that is not heavily defended, ignores at least three really good arguments undercutting feasibility of Russians taking Lutsk, wonders publicly if Putin’s generals see the same vulnerability that he sees!?! I love it 🙂
HAT451
October 22, 2022 at 5:05 pm
I concur that there is vulnerability in the Ukrainian far west, via a drive to Lviv. If the drive is sufficiently strong, and it reaches Ivano-Frankivs, it will in effect disrupt the supply through Poland and Slovakia, leaving only Rumania as the only viable land bridge into Ukraine, since Hungry is currently neutral is so much as it can be as a member of EU and NATO. After that is is a battle of attrition, unless the west does some akin to the Berlin Airlift (1948), not very practical for the bulk supplies of about 150lb per deployed soldier in the field coming through Rumania.
The other options would be drive in the south to Odessa denying resupply by sea, or in the north via Donetsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy Chernhiv going after the natural resources.
Kiev is the capitol, with religious, cultural, and symbolic significance to both Ukraine and Russia. For that reason I do not think they will make an effort directly siege or attack Kiev.
The Ukrainian options to counter what the Russians are doing would consist of either blowing or destroying dams on the Dnieper, achieving short term gains in the south at the price of loosing hydroelectric power and stored potable water for years to come. To protect in the north east, would provide exposure in both the north west and the south. While reinforcing the north east, would provide exposure in the west.
The initiative right now is transitioning back to the Russian side. The primary reason for that is the additional 300k Russian soldiers that are currently in the process of being mobilized. What I am seeing is each subsequent operational advance the Ukrainians made post Kharkiv campaign is blunted quicker and achieving less. Most of the 300k are not yet on the front line, and are expected to be on the front line sometime in late November or early December.
Jon
October 22, 2022 at 5:10 pm
Thanks for the chuckle. By all means, Russia should open a new front, where they were met with defeat before – when the problem was force dispersion. But, this time, they should strike out to the West, creating the longest supply lines possible, and placing Ukrainian defenders as close as possible to Western supply. Also creating the potential to bring NATO directly into the war. And of course, no Western nation would possibly pass on any intelligence about Russia’s massing newly conscripted, untested forces and supplies for this attack, so Ukraine will certainly be caught unawares. Russia should hurry up and attack during the rainy season, to achieve the element of surprise. Clearly, failure is unpossible.
Walker
October 22, 2022 at 6:44 pm
Davis has been strikingly wrong from Day 1. But he is like a gambling addict. If only he doubles down, he will win this time.
The real problem is that Davis picks and chooses his facts while ignoring realities.
In this episode of the show ‘Daniel Davis makes terrible Predictions’ Davis picks Russian “mobilization” as the fact that will correct all his previous miscalculations. He forgets that Russia isn’t training the conscripts and is throwing them into the war unequipped. He throws out Stalin’s quote on quantity over quality as the excuse. But he fails to recognize is that the quantity and quality are inextricably linked. The lower quality, the higher quantity is required. He can say 300,000 is a lot and will overwhelm, but not if those 300,000 are armed with toothpicks.
He then makes another assumption, that Russia can mobilize the completely untrained forces by themselves to become a new army and come from a new direction without alerting Ukraine to what he is doing. That is not even close to possible. The world was fully aware of what Russia was planning to do in February. We just were not ready for how inept Russia really is at true war. Over the last 8 months, Russia has not really tried to correct its mistakes and is completely unable to fix its biggest issue, it can not refit its army. The time when the Soviet Union was able to build its own weapons has long gone.
I read an article that basically stated the Soviet Union failed because they learned that stealing technology was actually putting them further and further behind as the West innovation picked up steam. Modern western hardware was making Soviet equipment obsolete before it hit the battlefield. That seems to be ringing true. And we also find that much of the equipment that Ukraine picks up that Russia abandons contain western technology. These equipment can’t be replaced. Just like Russia can’t build cars anymore. Well, they can, they just don’t have any sound systems or safety equipment. We also have to remember that much of the Soviet equipment was built in Ukraine. There is no replacing that equipment easy either.
One final note. Everything we are seeing from Russia is an escalation of desperation. The harder Russia tries the faster it is getting its rear end handed to it on the battlefield. All the way to its idea of busting a dam to blame on Ukraine. If Davis was even the slightest bit right, none of this would have happened in the first place. And yet, when observed objectively it all makes sense. Russia knows it can’t win, it can’t do any of what Davis is so sure about and Putin is just trying to delay the inevitable. Because at the end of the day, Putin knows his head will literally role for the bad choice. This is inevitable, but Putin is trying to delay it hoping that he can somehow get a miracle. Davis just thinks that miracle will come by grabbing men without shoes off the street and marching them into laser guided missiles without giving them any equipment.
And while Russia may hope that Ukraine will wait out the winter, Ukraine is likely to fight on while Russia’s army has no equipment to stay warm.
Goran
October 22, 2022 at 7:11 pm
As comrade Stalin said, it can be impressive what a sufficient number of civilians kidnapped at subway stops and shopping malls can do when faced with the International Legion equipped with the modern equipment. Coupled with logistic efforts being stripped to panhandling for funds in order to get thermal scopes that will keep troops warm (?!), the sky is the limit.
Yrral
October 22, 2022 at 8:17 pm
An American fool and his money soon parted, Ukrainain are skimming aid and deposit it in their Sovereign Fund,instead of using it on the right purpose Google NBU Ukraine Sovereign Fund
Steven
October 23, 2022 at 4:54 am
Russia is finished and everyone knows it. China’s next.
John
October 23, 2022 at 6:32 am
The war in Ukraine was a Biden deterrence failure. As a result Ukraines infrastructure is being destroyed and Russias army is being destroyed. The longer this war goes on , the more both sides will loose.
Use of Iranian ballistic missiles will be horrifying, but Ukraine likely building its own longe range suicide drones to strike Russian military targets deep inside Russia
Paradoxically this war is strengthening the West increasing military spending and energy production. Who thought Germany would be planning on fielding an arrow 3 missile shield and US military spending is going to go through the roof, Congress will overrule Buden on that.
Sad, as a race homo sapiens is defective and cannot solve conflict through cooperation and compromise. Hence the idiotic pursuit of the invasion of Taiwan which will lead to the destruction of the US and Chinese military
mawendt
October 23, 2022 at 9:38 am
The moral is to the physical as three is to one – Napoleon Bonaparte
LTC Davis is accurate in his recap – but doesn’t reflect on the Russian Army’ WILL TO FIGHT. Strange, since the LTC quotes Clausewitz earlier in the article, when Clausewitz was all about moral force and morale being critical in any battle. Russian forces have shown they do not have the will to fight.
First, Russia is now going to need the force of about one MILLION men under arms to conventionally conquer Ukraine. That would be supported by force multipliers like Air Power (which seems to be playing hooky), Armor Support (which seems to be in short supply), and Accurate Fires (non-existent). That is because now the Russian’s are not simply fighting the Ukrainian Army, but now also a noticeable portion of the 20 million adults who are ad hoc warriors against the invader. The Russian army presently, and for this season, is insufficient to conduct any type of successful campaign with the weather and set defenses against them, even with help from Belarus.
Second, the Western military supply chain would dry up if the West changes it’s political mind (unlikely) or if the Russian military somehow manages to accurately target more than a hundred dispersed supply trails into Ukraine (very unlikely). Because again, Russia doesn’t have the tactical, strategic, or political talent to make that happen.
Third – Zelensky won’t be attacked from anywhere he ‘isn’t expecting’ having the intelligence services of about 30 nations feeding him real-time info on Russian movements and preparations. Russia is half blinded, but has a spotlight and ten thousand eyes on it. There is probably nothing the Russian military or government plans that isn’t told to Zelensky right after it’s decided – which is probably *why* the UAF is successful. They are probably getting 3m grid locations of every enemy target hourly, right down to the individual Russian vehicle and artillery piece.
Right now, Ukraine has (probably) three to six months of stored material to fight, so cutting them off tomorrow would still have Russia struggling for a while, assuming Russia mobilized forces to contain the Ukraine. Interestingly and not addressed is Ukraines’ restraint against targeting Russia proper. Having seen the Russian Army in action, the UAF might have the competence to roll into Moscow – and from the sounds of it, might even be welcomed as liberators.
No. ‘What If’ doesn’t show a realistic Red Team analysis, with the present Russian forces in the field, and the Russian military competency. It is more likely that Putin will push for a stalemate, and at a distant worst employ unconventional tactical weapons. Most-most likely is Putin slips in a bathtub or catches the Russia Flu, and the new leader has Russian forces withdraw.
For now Putin just continues dropping troops into a meat grinder and is praying for something unexpected in Russia’s favor.
But… LTC Davis scenario is kinda weak. Just saying.
Daryana
October 23, 2022 at 10:10 am
Russia has always won. Russia will win this war too. Ukraine will be liquidated as a terrorist state.
El
October 23, 2022 at 10:59 am
Looking at past events, I doubt the Russians would risk such a move. Firstly an attack toward Lviv would require at least 3-4 divisions, which I think the Russians simply do not have. Secondly, such a force would have to attack large cities such as Lutsk and Lviv, resistance there would be fanatical to say the least. The population of West Ukraine is quite anti-Russian and partisan activity here would likely be intense, finally such a force would be most probably be struck on its flanks numerous times; let us not forget Ukraine is fully mobilized and like the Red Army in 1941 it will fanatically throw everything at the invader (they have the numbers to do so, they have mobilized in full). It all seems rather bold, and judging from past operations, beyond the capability of the Russian armed forces. My guess is the Russians will attempt a simpler operation advancing toward Zaporizhe and Dnipro, bypassing the fortifications in Donetsk and cutting off the Ukrainian forces in the East. This is way less risky and promises bigger gains.
Bender
October 23, 2022 at 11:40 am
What can you tell to a guy like Daniel Davis ?
I wish he would stop, but he just keeps going with this Putinist manure..
marcjf
October 23, 2022 at 12:48 pm
The Russians ought to attack – now that they have parity in numbers – where the UAF is not. Whether they can apply Maskirovka in this age of surveillance is another matter. I do not buy the pro-Russian “retreat to victory” exlanationsof Kharkov, nor do I figure that the Russian military is finished. In my view it has barely started, inexplicably committing a small fraction of its resources. We will see when the ground freezes whether or not these forces are a mirage or real.
Jim
October 23, 2022 at 12:50 pm
Regarding Lt. Col. rt. Davis’ thesis:
An offensive into western Ukraine.
For several months, I’ve been concerned Odessa is “a bridge too far” because it may be beyond Russia’s military capability and it increases the geopolitical stakes for Russia, pushing all their chips on the table.
But more important it raises the stakes sky high for the Collective West, as well.
A military offensive into western Ukraine poses similar risks.
The reaction of the Collective West is unpredictable.
Little discussed by the authors presenting their opinions & analysis, here, on this website, is that Ukraine, while not a vital national security interest of the American People, is existential for the U. S. foreign policy blob, those neo-liberal, neocon & warhawks who make up the foreign policy establishment in the U.S. and have been running U. S. foreign policy for the last 20 years or so, if not longer.
(From a false premise to begin with) Iraq devolved into abuse, fraud, and corruption and a forever war that hurt America’s geostrategic position in the Middle East, sacrificed American service personnel and drained the U. S. Treasury.
Afghanistan devolved into a similar cycle.
Intervention in Syria was a failure… not even regime change, the chief policy objective of this elite.
Libya is a wrecked state with open slave markets and a country divided into bitter warring factions (and the U. S. lied to the U. N. Security Council that it was strictly a humanitarian “no fly zone” operation… China & Russia went along on that assurance).
So far this elite has been able to slough off their failures. But a failure, here, in Ukraine can’t be so easily shaken off.
If the Collective West (read U. S.) is going to directly intervene militarily at all, its best reason or rational would be as a result of a Russian offensive into western Ukraine.
The western elite are desperate men and as we all know, desperate men do desperate things.
The circumstances would set the stage for a nuclear false flag from the CIA or a “hand off” to Ukraine for a similar action… it’s no accident Zelensky has been constantly raising the specter of a nuclear incident for many weeks, now.
The Community of Nations does not want to go there.
But a few desperate men in the West… who knows.
Gary Jacobs
October 24, 2022 at 8:22 pm
Jim,
You have taken a few grains of reality, and surrounded them with a bunch of inaccurate cliches as well as terms that are nothing more than bumper stickers. Ukraine should be seen on its own terms, and that is far different than anything happening in the mideast.
1st of all, the term ‘forever war’ is a pure fiction bumper sticker created to lure people susceptible to such thin gruel to repeat them as if they have some deeper meaning. It has zero relevant meaning in this context. The US has had troops in Japan, Germany, and S. Korea for decades. Nobody calls those forever wars. In part because there is far less shooting in any of those places…except now war has come to Europe not far from Germany… and the troops there are a bulwark against Russia’s imperialist fantasies.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, the US had ample opportunity to leave residual forces behind that would not have allowed collapse in either of those areas….similar to the way we left residual forces in Germany and Japan. The politicians of both parties chose defeat with stupid policies. And here you are acting like the chaos that ensued was inevitable. For a fraction of the cost of full occupation, we could have had relative stability in both places with a residual force remaining there.
As well, you continue to use the terms neocon and neoliberal completely incorrectly. The support for Ukraine is a situation that is neither neocon nor neoliberal. In fact the neoliberal dream of globalization and inclusion by trade relations has been completely destroyed by Putin’s Imperialist fantasies in Ukraine [as well as China aggressive policies under Xi]. Furthermore, there is zero neocon level policy being implemented for invasion or occupation of either Russia or Ukraine. Less than $20 Billion from the US for Ukraine to defeat the Russian army is the best bargain the US defense budget has ever had.
And my last point for the moment is that Ukraine has never needed NATO troops on the ground. They have proven they are quite capable of fighting the Russians on their own. They do need weapons and other support. But they are also a part of the global tech ecosystem, and have developed their own targeting package software that plugs their drones right into the digital fire control systems of NATO artillery. Not a single one of the countries the US military was involved with in mideast has anything close to the tech talent or global agriculture importance of Ukraine.
They are incredibly talented people that have been trying to break free from Russia for a very long time. they are on the front lines of freedom defending Europe against Russia. A Ukrainian victory would also relieve NATO member Turkey as Russia has troops on multiple sides of them. Europe is a major ally of the US, not to mention a major trading partner as a collective multi-trill dollar economy, and they came to our aid after 9/11… Your notion that helping them help Ukraine is not a vital interest of the US is a fundamental misunderstanding of economics and our alliance structure.
Have a liberating day.
Goran
October 23, 2022 at 5:59 pm
Chris: “Daniel Davis is pro-Ukraine”
Daniel Davis : “Biden must therefore limit his support to Ukraine and prioritize the security of our country”
Davis is in favor of Ukraine as much as Madonna is in favor of celibacy. The guy insisted on Ukraine giving in to Putin’s demands and as it’s becoming obvious that’s not gonna happen, his bright idea is to promote this brilliant plan of transferring some of the Ukrainian troops from the battlefield and stationing them in the northwest where they’d be as useful as a bra on a chipmunk.
Vector
October 23, 2022 at 7:19 pm
I see your upto these silly essay again? You have being proven wrong Donbas, Kherson? Qusilings never rest.Why is it so hard to accept defeat just like Putin? Go back to Moscow traitor!
Serhio
October 24, 2022 at 12:22 am
Putin doesn’t even need to attack from the north. It is enough to keep troops there and then the Ukrainian military will have to withdraw some of their troops from Donbass, Kherson, Kharkiv. The initial advance to Kiev was not an attempt to capture it (any military man will say that there were too few forces for this, and it was just a distraction strike to distract part of the forces from the east, where the most basic battles were taking place at that moment.)
Serhio
October 24, 2022 at 12:57 am
Gary Jacobs
“The Russians have also announced the Kerch Bridge cant be repaired until July 2023, and the winter weather limits the use of ferries/supply boats. The Ukrainians would then have put Putin in quite a conundrum… does Putin continue to try and invade from the north?”
Train traffic was restored on the Crimean Bridge the day after the terrorist attack. One branch of the railway tracks was not damaged. The second one was restored a week later. Half of the automobile part of the road continues to function. Restoration of the damaged part is scheduled for 2023. The terrorist attack on the bridge was certainly a slap in the face, but not a disaster.
I have already pointed out inaccuracies in your forecasts several times, but you continue to make forecasts with perseverance worthy of better application. It would be good to direct your energy to a useful cause. Your belief in the supply and capabilities of Western weapons does not give you the opportunity to draw the right conclusions. And the facts are as follows: none of the samples of Western weapons except HIMARS has an advantage over similar Russian systems, but loses in number. The United States will not be able to put such a number of HIMARS to defeat the Russians. It just doesn’t have that many systems. Speaking about the fact that a lot of HIMARS and analogues will arrive in Ukraine soon, you forget to add that many of these systems have not yet been produced and this “soon” may take up to 2 years. You wrote very enthusiastically that the offensive in the area of Kharkov and Kherson will soon throw the Russians back to the Vladivostok area. Forgetting the price that Ukrainian troops paid for this offensive. As a result, the Russians retreated to pre-prepared positions and have been shooting the Ukrainian military like partridges for three weeks now. Russians are preparing reserve positions where they will go if the Ukrainians are able to fill up the current positions of the Russians with corpses and start threatening the Russians. Attacking fortified positions with enemy aircraft dominating the air is a sure way of self-sabotage.
Gary Jacobs
October 24, 2022 at 11:11 am
Serhio,
Wrong again. “Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government’s website said.” This is according to Reuters reporting from Moscow on Oc. 14. Several days after the bombing.
The full story is a bit murky, but as I understand it the Russians tried to send a few test trains across, and realized the structure needed repair to be able to send heavy military equipment, which is the most important thing for their war effort to resupply forces in Southern Ukraine. There is a huge difference between sending a passenger train loaded with people, and a freight train loaded with dozens of 50+ Ton main battle tanks, or even huge pallets of supplies, or fuel tanks for an army.
As well, the part of the bridge for cars is not allowed to send large trucks. There are not only on the ground images from the large truck cue waiting for the ferry, but the line is so long it can be seen by satellite overhead. Some of those trucks are waiting days for the ferry. At one point the line was backed up close to 100km. Once again, the sources on the ground reporting are largely Russians.
As well, you claim that no western system other than HIMARS is better than Russian systems…. that’s absurd. Pretty much Every system from the west is better than Russians. HARM missiles are taking out Russian radar and SAM systems left and right, Western artillery with digital fire control and auto loaders are better than Russian artillery which quite often still use pencils and physical maps for targeting. I recommend searching out Mriya Report podcasts with Thomas C. Theiner a retired Italian Artilleryman, who is also an expert in NATO strategy, and has lived in Ukraine. They also have discussions with several NATO/allied country Generals like Mick Ryan, Pikka Toveri, Ben Hodges, and more. There’s even a Seal Team 6 Commander that pops in once in a while.
Theiner gets into a detailed discussion on the difference between Russian artillery and Western artillery. Major advantage to western systems. And beyond the systems, precision GPS guided artillery shells like Excalibur have been almost as devastating to Russia as HIMARS. The Ukrainians have helped themselves by creating a targeting software package that links their drones to the digital fire control systems so they can correct their fire quickly as needed.
Bottom line: I have continued to point out inaccuracies in your forecasts. You really should make more of an effort to get yourself better sources of information before you post claiming others are wrong, there is plenty of available information from actually reputable sources.
Have a liberating day..
Gary Jacobs
October 24, 2022 at 4:58 pm
Serhio,
You appear to be wrong again/. The initial reports from the Russians about the bridge back up and running were wildly optimistic. Unless you have some other detailed information and sources to provide. I’ll stick with mine, which not only includes confirmation from western sources as of a few days ago, but also from Russians as well.
This is according to Reuters reporting from Moscow on Oc. 14. Several days after the bombing:
“Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government’s website said.”
The full story is a bit murky, but as I understand it the Russians tried to send a few test trains across, and realized the structure needed repair to be able to send heavy military equipment, which is the most important thing for their war effort to resupply forces in Southern Ukraine. There is a huge difference between sending a passenger train loaded with people, and a freight train loaded with dozens of 50+ Ton main battle tanks, or even huge pallets of supplies, or fuel tanks for an army.
As well, the part of the bridge for cars is not allowed to send large trucks. There are not only on the ground images from the large truck cue waiting for the ferry, but the line is so long it can be seen by satellite overhead. Some of those trucks are waiting days for the ferry. At one point the line was backed up close to 100km. Once again, the sources on the ground reporting are largely Russians.
As well, you claim that no western system other than HIMARS is better than Russian systems…. that’s absurd. Pretty much Every system from the west is better than Russians. HARM missiles are taking out Russian radar and SAM systems left and right, Western artillery with digital fire control and auto loaders are better than Russian artillery which quite often still use pencils and physical maps for targeting. I recommend searching out Thomas C. Theiner a retired Italian Artilleryman, who is also an expert in NATO strategy, and has lived in Ukraine. He also likes to have discussions with several NATO/allied country Generals like Mick Ryan, Pikka Toveri, Ben Hodges, and more. There’s even a Seal Team 6 Commander that pops in once in a while.
Theiner gets into a detailed discussion on the difference between Russian artillery and Western artillery. Major advantage to western systems. And beyond the systems, precision GPS guided artillery shells like Excalibur have been almost as devastating to Russia as HIMARS. The Ukrainians have helped themselves by creating a targeting software package that links their drones to the digital fire control systems so they can correct their fire quickly as needed.
Have a liberating day
MortenHJ
October 24, 2022 at 3:30 am
It took the Wehrmacht 1 month and 500 000 men panzer army to take Kiev in 1941..
Mojmir Ceh
October 24, 2022 at 5:15 am
I wonder has Mr. Davis even taken a look at the map of western Ukraine?
It’s probably the worst possible terrain for the attacker: rolling terrain of forest with cutouts mostly in valleys.
They couldn’t advance with their professional, relatively well equipped army, for 25km in the steppe (ideal for tank and artillery warfare), where Ukrainian logistics were stretching for 1400km (870miles).
Yet, they are somehow magically supposed to advance for 250km in EXTREMELY difficult terrain, with rag-tag mobilized, demoralized forces equipped with (early) Cold War equipment, in the area where Ukrainian logistics alines are just dozens of kilometers long!?
No, that ain’t gonna happen.
They won’t even try as even Russians aren’t that stupid.
Roger Bacon
October 24, 2022 at 4:34 pm
I find it highly unlikely that Russia would be able to blitz in to the Western border and then hold suck a long supply line from the expected counterattacks. Their inability to move quickly has already been shown and they had more than enough trouble with short supply lines far from enemy territory. Still, the author can dream I guess.
aldol11
October 24, 2022 at 5:50 pm
i thought that this Putin troll had been fired
GhostTomahawk
October 24, 2022 at 7:27 pm
Modern Warfare 101. Control your enemy’s access to supply of food water fuel and military grade necessities and you’ll win… right after you secure air superiority
Russia should’ve done this the first week.
Serhio
October 24, 2022 at 11:57 pm
Gary Jacobs
“The full story is a bit murky, but as I understand it the Russians tried to send a few test trains across, and realized the structure needed repair to be able to send heavy military equipment, which is the most important thing for their war effort to resupply forces in Southern Ukraine. There is a huge difference between sending a passenger train loaded with people, and a freight train loaded with dozens of 50+ Ton main battle tanks, or even huge pallets of supplies, or fuel tanks for an army.
As well, the part of the bridge for cars is not allowed to send large trucks. There are not only on the ground images from the large truck cue waiting for the ferry, but the line is so long it can be seen by satellite overhead. Some of those trucks are waiting days for the ferry. At one point the line was backed up close to 100km. Once again, the sources on the ground reporting are largely Russians.”
As usual, you are trying to see not the whole assembled puzzle, but only the pieces that you like. Thus, you can only lie to people who are not interested in the topic. The fact that there is a queue of trucks for the ferry is explained by the ban on civilian trucks crossing the Crimean Bridge. Now only cars, buses and military trucks are allowed through the bridge. And this is explained not by damage to the bridge, but by the fact that cargo checks have been tightened. The fact that trucks pass through the automobile part of the bridge, and freight trains go through the railway part is perfectly visible in the video about the repair of the damaged part of the bridge posted on YouTube. Also, local residents report that freight trains with fuel and military equipment are crossing the bridge.
Serhio
October 25, 2022 at 12:37 am
Gary Jacobs
“Pretty much Every system from the west is better than Russians. HARM missiles are taking out Russian radar and SAM systems left and right, Western artillery with digital fire control and auto loaders are better than Russian artillery which quite often still use pencils and physical maps for targeting.
…..
The inner gets into a detailed discussion on the difference between Russian artillery and Western artillery. Major advantage to western systems.”
Comparing on paper and comparing in practice are slightly different things. On paper, the overwhelming superiority of Western technology. In fact, everything is not so wonderful. Perhaps the expert is considering old Russian systems. Perhaps the Russians are very secretive and have not shown everything to Western experts. Maybe they wanted to make a surprise for Christmas? The Russians also connected aviation, drones and artillery to the network, and after the drone detects the target, an artillery shot is fired at it. And it turned out that the Russian artillery also has high-precision guided projectiles. Who would have thought. Surprise.
Gary Jacobs
October 25, 2022 at 11:16 am
Serhio,
LoL, now you are just making things up pretending that Russia has something close to western weapons. I cited actual experts. Russia occasionally makes some kind of modern model…and then produces very limited numbers of them to the point that they are irrelevant. Like the Aramata tank, or the SU57. The same is true with their artillery like the 2A36 Giatsint-B and Msta-SM2.
And while it is true the Russians had their version of Excalibur called Krasnopol… the Russians require the Orlan-30 drone which has a laser designator to make use of them. Ukraine has shot down almost the entire fleet of Orlan 30s Russia had. This design mistake relying on a laser designator, along with HIMARS obliterating Russian ammo depots, has resulted in Russian units wasting supplies of laser guided Krasnopol rounds in unguided barrages. By contrast Excalibur is GPS guided and the soldier doing the loading uses an app to program the shell. Therefore just about any off the shelf DJI drone can provide the GPS coordinates in the short range…but there are at least a half dozen countries I can think of off the top of my head that have sent drones to Ukraine with 30km or more range… Especially Turkey, Poland, and the US.
No matter how much you want to pretend they are a viable force…they are being repeatedly defeated by Ukraine for four main reasons:
#1 motivation of the Ukrainians to be free of Russian imperial tyranny.
#2 much better western weapons across the board.
#3 much better Ukrainian tactics
#4 decentralized command structure [which is also a reflection of Ukrainians desire to be free, and Putin’s need to control from the top down.
On the Kerch Bridge, I see nothing mentioning freight trains resuming…and the original images the Russians put out within 48hours of the bombing of them sending a train on the tracks were later contradicted by images from Russian repair workers themselves on the bridge showing both rail lines damaged and requiring repairs before a train could get all the way to the other side of the bridge. If you have a source for video of a freight train going all the way across, feel free to post it, or the right keywords to search it. Sometimes 1945 can be weird about what links they allow in a post and when they decide to delete an entire post simply for including a couple of links.
Russian propaganda can be hard to untangle at times, and its understandable why they would want to pretend the freight train ability of the bridge is working again. It’s also worth exploring from the other end to find out what is reality and what is Russian fiction.
I just found one reference to freight traffic being opened again on the vehicle bridge from last weekend. If that’s true, then I missed it. First real oversight in a while. Still, I would put my record of accuracy against your Putinista talking points any day of the week. Speaking of which, the truck cue I saw was for the ferry, not the bridge.
Serhio
October 26, 2022 at 5:07 am
Gary Jacobs
” If you have a source for video of a freight train going all the way across, feel free to post it, or the right keywords to search it. Sometimes 1945 can be heard about what links they allow in a past and when they decide to delete an entire post simply for including a couple of links.”
I will try to give two answers. In one I will give a direct link to YouTube in the other keywords for search. If this site prohibits direct links, then the video can be found by the description.
The video shows how, against the background of a floating crane and collapsed spans of the automobile bridge, a passenger train, a freight train and trucks pass over the surviving part of the automobile bridge.
I will try to give two answers. In one I will give a direct link to YouTube in the other keywords for search. If this site prohibits direct links, then the video can be found by the description.
The video shows how, against the background of a floating crane and collapsed spans of the automobile bridge, a passenger train, a freight train and trucks pass over the surviving part of the automobile bridge.
Search by the words “bridge” and “12.10.2012”. On the first page.
Serhio
October 26, 2022 at 5:50 am
Gary Jacobs
“The same is true with their artillery like the 2A36 Giatsint-B and Msta-SM2.”
It’s not entirely clear why you decided to use these systems as an example. Is there inconsistency due to different notation systems? As far as I know, Giatsint -B was developed back in the USSR and has many modifications. It was produced in large quantities and was actively exported. The Russians have more interesting systems. For example, 2A36M “Dilemma-2A36” is a modified Giatsint-B with a computer using GLONASS (the Russian equivalent of the GPS system). And they were also produced in sufficient quantities. The Msta-CM2 is also an old Soviet-era weapon. There are more than 800 of them in the Russian army (this is according to open sources, and no one really knows how many) it was a few years ago, and not in the USSR version, but already upgraded 2S19M1 and 2S19M2.
We know only from Ukrainians that Ukrainian troops destroyed all Russian Orlan drones. If you believe the Ukrainian propaganda, they have already killed all the Russians, captured Voronezh and Tomsk and are fighting on the outskirts of Vladivostok. That is, it is impossible to believe them categorically.
Besides, the Russians have an overwhelming advantage in the air. Their missiles and drones are operating all over Ukraine as if at home. And without the cover of air defense systems, all wonderful Western weapons become wonderful targets. NATO will not be able to supply such an amount of air defense to close 1,000 kilometers of the front. There is not so much.
Gary Jacobs
October 26, 2022 at 10:26 am
Serhio,
You made a main point for me. Likely without knowing it. 2A36M “Dilemma-2A36” is a 152mm gun. NATO standard is 155mm, which outclasses the 152mm. US made M777, French Cesar, etc… all 155mm. In fact the Ukrainians were concerned that they would not be able to have any ammo left for their Soviet era 152mm Guns because almost no one but Russia has anymore. That was part of what got the west to rush training and equipment of 155mm. Then the Russian lines collapsed in the Kharkiv counter offensive and Ukraine captured quite a bit of their ammo, and the US captured an Iranian ship near Yemen smuggling weapons, which included 152mm shells. So the US gave them to Ukraine.
As well, it’s quite easy to use NASA images from FIRMS which can detect fires from space. Once HIMARS, Excalibur and HARMs were given to Ukraine, a massive decrease in Russian artillery can be tracked.
Btw: More evidence to my point came in yesterday as Russia lost 2 more Ka52s. Just over 100 Ka50 and Ka52 attack helicopters were ever produced. They were supposed to be Russia’s attempt to match the AH64 Apache. FYI: The US military made 1200 Ah-64 Apache Helicopters.
There have been at least 23 verified losses of Russia’s Ka-52 HOKUM attack helicopter in Ukraine in this invasion. This represents over 25% of the Russian Air Force’s in-service fleet of 90 Ka-52s and nearly half of Russia’s total helicopter losses in Ukraine.
As well NASAM will be delivered to Ukraine soon, which is a very versatile Missile defense system that uses standard AMRAAM missiles, among others. NATO countries collectively have thousands of AMRAAMS to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. There will be a lot more missile defense systems coming to Ukraine soon also.
As well, part of the reason Ukraine has been so successful with counter offensives is a SEAD campaign with HARM missiles that have obliterated Russian SAMs and other radars Russia uses for battlefield awareness. One can also track the return of images from Ukraine’s drones as they took out Russian radars and SAMs.
Your notion that Russia controls the skies is absurd, even for you. They do still fly, but the best they can hope for is contested airspace. Quite a bit of Russian aircraft, planse, helos, drones and missiles get shot down.
For the most part… Russia has now relied more heavily on terrorist tactics of Hamas and Hezbollah to fire missiles at cities far from the front line to try and scare civilians. Just as the original Nazis found out during the missile barrage on London in WWII, your RuSSian fascists will find out that firing on civilians in this way strengthens their resolve against you.
You can pat yourself on the back about being able to strike schools and playgrounds far from the front line all you want… it is not having an effect on the actual battlefront. The weather is the biggest thing holding back Ukraine right now.
The Ukrainian military is almost on the high ground overlooking Svatove from the west. When they get there, you can consider that city lost for the Russians, and that should have another cascade effect of losing in the area for the Russians.
You should prepare yourself for Further losses for Russia in Kherson Oblast soon as well. I am curious to see what the strategy will be for each side. Ukraine has an interest in avoiding urban combat as they actually care about the city and its people being free. They may try for a long term siege, or they may eventually engage in urban combat inside the city. Either way the Russian defenses outside the city are collapsing. It’s only a matter of how long it will actually take for the Russian lines to collapse or retreat to the point where all they have left is the city. At that point their situation is likely unsustainable, and the Ukrainians can cross the river elsewhere and completely surround them…while moving onto other objective east of the river. Either way the initiative is all with the Ukrainians. The Russians are in desperation mode.
Bottom line: Expect more losses across the board for Russia coming soon.
I could go on for days dissecting ever one of your points, but for now I digress.
Have a liberating day..
Serhio
October 26, 2022 at 10:55 pm
Gary Jacobs
“You made a main point for me. Likely without knowing it. 2A36M “Dilemma-2A36” is a 152mm gun. NATO standard is 155mm, which outclasses the 152mm. US made M777, French Cesar, etc… all 155mm.”
Do you really think that the 3mm caliber gives the weapon a significant superiority? Then I have bad news for you: the Russians have self-propelled guns of caliber 203 (2S7M “Malka” and 2S7 “Peony”) with a large variety of shells. But the simultaneous use of shells of two similar calibers 152 and 155 creates logistical difficulties and confusion in the Ukrainian army. The number of places where you can take 152 mm shells for Ukraine is decreasing and soon they will be gone. We’ll have to stop all the Iranian ships in a row to steal a couple of boxes of shells.
“As well, it’s quite easy to use NASA images from FIRMS which can detect fires from space.”
The Russians also have satellites. There are fewer of them than Nato satellites, but this does not make them less dangerous. In combination with reconnaissance drones, the Russians have the ability to identify the artillery of the Ukrainian troops and effectively suppress it.
“As well NASAM will be delivered to Ukraine soon, which is a very versatile Missile defense system that uses standard AMRAAM missiles, among others. NATO countries collectively have thousands of AMRAAMS to contribute to Ukraine’s defense. There will be a lot more missile defense systems coming to Ukraine soon also.”
You are too excited by newspaper headlines like “the USA is transferring the latest weapons to Ukraine.” Yes, it does. Yes, the newest. Maybe even excellent. But in scanty quantities.
The capabilities of NASA’S are quite limited. With the help of these two complexes delivered to Ukraine, it is possible to organize the protection of any one object, and then very weak, because other complexes are needed in support. Will this air defense system protect the whole country? Of course not! She won’t cover the sky. Because the missile launch range of this system is approximately 75 km, but these are field tests, the system has never shown itself in specific combat operations. It is not necessary to judge her real fighting qualities. The Americans (as well as the Germans with IRIS-T) contact field tests of their system in combat conditions. This has very little to do with the protection of Ukraine.
Do not forget about Russian hypersonic missiles, which cannot be stopped by any of the existing Western air defense systems. There are no such air defense systems. This is what the highest generals of the Pentagon say, making sad faces and spreading their hands.
Serhio
October 27, 2022 at 12:57 am
Gary Jacobs
“For the most part… Russia has now relied more heavily on terrorist tactics of Hamas and Hezbollah to fire missiles at cities far from the front line to try and scare civilians. Just as the original Nazis found out during the missile barrage on London in WWII, your RuSSian fascists will find out that firing on civilians in this way strengthens their resolve against you.”
I see the opposite situation. If from the Russian side we see how drones and missiles launched for military and dual-use purposes (energy and transport infrastructure) sometimes fall on residential buildings as a result of the fact that they are shot down by air defense means. S-300 missiles are falling on these same houses, with which Ukrainians are trying to shoot down Russian drones and missiles, but they miss. At the same time, you are trying to tell us that the Russians are firing at Ukrainians with S-300 anti-missiles because they are running out of strike missiles. That’s a lie.
From the Ukrainian side, we see how 155 mm artillery (only Ukraine has, but Russia does not) is shelling residential buildings in the Donbas. They are shooting purposefully at a peaceful city. Not on military targets. The Western press is doing its best to silence the reporters who talk about it. French reporter and military expert Adrian Bocquet has collected a lot of facts that confirm these facts. He was thrown into a French prison and tortured. After he was released from prison by French human rights activists, he was attacked and stabbed several times. However, he continues to conduct his telegram and tells the truth.
Gary Jacobs
October 29, 2022 at 9:42 am
Serhio:
So many errors in your posts I dont have time to correct them all, but we can start here:
It isnt just the 3mm difference in diameter, it’s also the Length of the shell.
Many of the shells for the 152mm howitzer range between 600mm and 700mm in over all length.
The 155mm howitzer on the other hand has shells that range from 600mm in length up to 974mm in total length.
While the 155mm howitzer may only be 3mm wider in diameter, many of the shells fired today are on average +300mm longer in over all length then those fired from the 152mm howitzer. This is what causes the 155mm shells to be that much more destructive in practice.
I already explained the reason why NATO countries rushed to train Ukraine on 155mm as they were running out of 152mm. But it is also a long term strategy of bringing Ukraine up to NATO standard and training. That includes “NATO Standard” artillery as All NATO nations share similar calibers so that a US logistics shipment can supply a UK, French, or other NATO members force on the ground and vice versa. Therefore for all the different countries supplying Ukraine with artillery units, the NATO standard 155mm rounds supplied by any country can be used on an of the varioous artillery units.
I could go on for days dissecting you posts point by point, but for now I digress.
Jai
October 25, 2022 at 4:26 am
I’ll agree that if Russia tried this, they would be bringing the war to a close much more swiftly.
Charlie
October 26, 2022 at 5:41 pm
Thank you Gary Jacobs!
Rick
November 1, 2022 at 12:17 pm
Does Davis pay to have his drivel published here?