Already a month old, the current round of anti-regime protests in Iran is already the most serious and likely the most deadly to threaten the Islamic Republic. The fact that Evin Prison, the Islamic Republic’s greatest symbol of repression, is on fire is telling. It should now be clear to everyone: The Islamic Republic has no legitimacy.
What Happens if Iran Falls? Not What You Expect
During the 2003 Iraq War, I was a Council on Foreign Relations fellow placed on the Iran and Iraq desk in the bloated bureaucracy of the Office of the Secretary of Defense at the Pentagon. As Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s regime fell, I remember the flood of revelatory documents that the Americans seized. I was personally among a group of Iraqis at the tomb of Baath Party founder Michel Aflaq in Baghdad when we found records of presidential council meetings and North Korea-style education records charting not the grades but the perceived loyalty of students based on their family connections. Academics like Kanan Makiya organized some of these documents through the Iraq Memory Foundation and future Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, as a human rights-oriented journalist, would help expose them.
There were more documents, however, seized nearby that showed how some American academics and journalists compromised themselves. Some openly promised to self-censor in exchange for access. Others expressed sympathy toward Saddam’s regime. Still, others went further and nonchalantly reported on their colleagues in order to curry favor. A few even accepted gifts of cash or other subsidies from Saddam and his top lieutenants.
The fact that these were American citizens created a debate behind-the-scenes. Ultimately, lawyers counseled keeping such documents secret in the theory that the names of such willing agents of influence on Iraqi documents provided no proof because, in theory, Saddam’s regime may have forged their names or exaggerated their roles.
Iran’s American ‘Friends, Exposed?
We should not make the same mistake should Iran fall. Circumstantial evidence and email records show close interactions between prominent analysts, academics, scholars, and Iranian diplomats. Many of the most prominent pro-Islamic Republic or anti-sanctions activists also worked at various times with Tehran-based consulting firms. Some of the think tanks most antagonistic to sanctions on the Islamic Republic share similar donors.
While scholars and journalists in such an orbit may deny direct links to the Islamic Republic or argue that their interactions were only those of scholars seeking to interview subjects, the fall of the regime could expose the bigger picture or, conversely, exculpate them. The Islamic Republic is a bureaucracy. When handlers interact with agents or seek to recruit useful idiots, they often leave a paper trail. Anyone who has ever visited Tehran understands that Iran’s bureaucracy is more onerous than other countries.
There are other parallels. The German government temporarily set up a bureau to allow its citizens to look at records the dreaded East German Stasi kept on them; Berlin did not concern itself with the rights of the Stasi to privacy.
Should Americans appear in the records of the Islamic Republic, the Biden administration should not repeat the mistakes of the Bush administration. Biden’s team should expose those documents. Perhaps such an American offering to act as an agent of influence. Perhaps it would be a journalist offering to inform on colleagues (as happened in the Iraqi records). Or perhaps it would be academics parroting regime talking points in emails in order to win access.
In any case, if an American whose name they contain claims he or she is included falsely, let them state their denial openly. If the evidence suffices to charge them as unregistered agents, the Biden team should not hesitate if still within the statute of limitations. Regardless, should the regime fall, it is essential to shame the Islamic Republic’s agents in plain sight; not protect them.
Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Dr. Michael Rubin is a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005).
