Ukraine Doesn’t Believe Putin’s Kherson Withdrawal Is Real: Following reports over the last week that Russian forces were preparing to withdraw from Kherson, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu ordered troops to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnieper River on Wednesday close to the city of Kherson. The news was widely described as an embarrassment for Russian President Vladimir Putin, and some analysts even suggested it was a pivotal point in the conflict – but there may be more to this story than meets the eye.
The decision was also announced on state television; a curious move given the Kremlin’s usual approach of describing withdrawals as strategic “regroupings.”
In a staged television event, top military officials described the situation in Kherson and why the withdrawal was taking place. Gen Sergei Surovikin, the top Russian commander in Ukraine, also took part in the event.
Regardless of the reason behind the withdrawal, it remains a significant and potentially consequential point in the war. Kherson is the only regional capital captured by the Russians since the beginning of the invasion, making it a significant loss even if the withdrawal is strategic.
Ukraine Is Skeptical
Ukraine is skeptical about the withdrawal. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, took to Twitter and said that it remains to be seen whether the Russians are actually retreating or simply making it appear as though they are retreating.
“Actions speak louder than words. We see no signs that Russia is leaving Kherson without a fight,” Podolyak said, adding that the Ukrainian military is “liberating territories based on intelligence data, not staged TV statements.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said in his nightly address on Wednesday that the military was approaching the situation carefully, noting that enemy forces don’t give Ukraine “gifts” or “goodwill gestures.”
“Therefore, we are moving very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk, in the interests of liberating all our land and so that the losses are as small as possible,” Zelenskyy said.
So what, then is the purpose of the withdrawal? As 19FortyFive has previously reported, Russian forces may simply be staging a withdrawal in an effort to lull Ukrainian forces into a false sense of security.
Russian TOS-1. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
At the same time, Russian forces are legitimately struggling to maintain control of the city, particularly since Ukrainian forces began making gains in the south in the last few months. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly destroyed key supply bridges over the Dnieper River, forcing Russian forces to look for alternate routes to resupply troops in the city.
The Kremlin knows it, too, with a statement from the Russian Ministry of Defense admitting that Kherson city and adjacent settlements “cannot be fully supplied.”
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
