Can Donald Trump still win in 2024? Former President Donald Trump’s stock has never been lower.
Trump’s approval rating is cratering. Trump’s endorsement has become something of a scarlet letter in swing states. Lawsuits, investigations, and scandals are mounting. Viable rivals are emerging.
Things have perhaps never been worse for Donald Trump. Yet, to count the brash and obnoxious former president out entirely would be shortsighted. Trump is still Trump meaning he’s still an ideologue with a cult-like following.
He’s still a two-time GOP presidential nominee, a one-time president, and a billionaire capable of pouring resources into his campaign.
And perhaps most importantly, Donald Trump remains the mainstream media, and liberal America’s, public enemy number one – an asset to his credentials as a rabble-rousing outsider and staunch conservative.
Problems Mounting For Donald Trump
A new poll from Quinnipiac University showed that Trump’s approval rating had sunk to 31 percent, which is Trump’s lowest approval rating since July 2015. Another poll, from USA TODAY/Suffolk University, showed that 61 percent of Republicans like Trump’s policies – but want someone other than Trump to be the GOP nominee for 2024.
The USA TODAY poll also found that Republicans favor DeSantis to Donald Trump (56 percent to 33 percent). The numbers indicate conservatives may be moving past Trump – who has dominated the GOP for seven years.
One reason conservatives may be looking beyond Trump is that Trump loses elections.
He lost the 2020 presidential election. And Trump’s endorsements in 2021 and 2022 have not fared well; Trump’s 2022 midterm endorsees were trounced in the battleground states, demonstrating that swing voters – even swing voters in territories Donald Trump once won – are tired of his schtick.
Trump is also losing ground over the constantly mounting lawsuits, investigations, and scandals. The State of New York is currently suing the Trump Organization for fraud. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice is investigating Trump’s mishandling of sensitive documents and Trump’s role in the January 6th riots.
The mainstream media is litigating against Donald Trump, too – currently, over his Thanksgiving dinner with Kanye West and Nick Fuentes (both of whom are antisemitic Holocaust deniers).
And that is how you get to a thirty one percent approval rating.
Interparty competition is likely to emerge in the near future, as GOP rivals sense Trump’s blood in the water. Ron DeSantis is the early favorite to challenge Trump. But other formidables like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence, and Nikki Haley may well compete to oust Trump from the GOP mantle.
Don’t Count Trump Out
While the problems Donald Trump faces are significant, and the rivals posturing to replace him are viable, Trump remains a legitimate candidate to earn the GOP ticket. The guy is like Rasputin, he seemingly cannot be killed. To assume Trump is cooked now – because a Quinnipiac University poll found that the majority of the country doesn’t like him – would be shortsighted.
Trump is going to raise plenty of money. Trump is going to hold rally after rally, where desperate Americans in need of a savior, are going to reaffirm their commitment to Him. And when a political opponent steps out of line, Trump is going to viciously malign the offending aspirant, and probably peg him for life with an unflattering nickname (i.e., Crooked Hillary, Sleepy Joe, Lyin’ Ted Cruz).
Trump will remain relevant well into the GOP primary. Expecting otherwise is probably just wishful thinking.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.
