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Donald Trump’s 2024 Run Is Circling the Drain

Donald Trump
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at an "An Address to Young Americans" event hosted by Students for Trump and Turning Point Action at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona.

Donald Trump Hs a New Problem: A brand-new Quinnipiac University poll found that former President Donald Trump’s popularity has cratered to its lowest point since 2015.

The poll, which was conducted from December 8 to December 12, and sampled 1,614 U.S. adults, does not bode well for Trump’s nascent presidential campaign.

Let’s take a look at the results.

Survey Says on Donald Trump…

The poll found that only 31 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of Donald Trump. Meanwhile, 59 percent of registered voters view Trump unfavorably. The 31 percent approval rating is the lowest approval rating Trump has had since July of 2015 – which is about a year before Trump earned the Republican nomination for the 2016 combination, before Trump was even respected as a serious candidate.

The new 31 percent approval rating also represents a significant downturn since this past July when 37 percent of voters held a favorable view of Trump.

Amongst Republicans, Trump’s approval rating has also dipped; Republicans recorded their lowest approval of Trump since March 2016, which again, was before Trump ever earned a Republican nomination for president. Yet, Trump still enjoys majority support amongst Republicans; 70 percent of Republicans still hold a favorable view of Donald Trump. However, last July, 77 percent of Republicans approved of Trump – so he has lost ground amongst his own party, too.

Amongst the ever-important independents, Trump is struggling. Only 25 percent of independents view Trump favorably. Again, the 25 percent is the lowest approval rating amongst independents Trump has ever recorded since May of 2015, when Quinnipiac started tracking the statistics. Again, the number is down from last July when Donald Trump enjoyed 34 percent approval amongst independents.

70 percent of all voters do not want Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2024. Although a majority – 56 percent – of Republican voters do (while 38 percent of Republicans do not).

47 percent of respondents believe that Donald Trump committed a crime when he objected to the results of the 2020 election results. 43 percent felt that Trump did not commit a crime.

The Quinnipiac University poll was distinct relative to similar polls in that it found Trump’s approval rating to be lower. A comparable FiveThirtyEight poll recently found that Trump had a 40.2 percent approval rating – nearly ten points higher than the Quinnipiac poll.

A Few Surprises…

The Quinnipiac poll also asked voters whether they believed Trump should be disqualified from running for president on account of his recent call to terminate portions of the Constitution. 51 percent of voters said yes, they believe Trump should be disqualified from running.

Well, that’s significant: a majority of voters don’t even believe Trump should be allowed to run for president.

Meanwhile, as Trump’s poll numbers crater, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are rebounding. Biden recorded his highest approval rating since September 2021. Granted, only 43 percent of voters approve of Biden (49 percent disapprove) – but you’ve got to remember: Biden’s approval ratings were in the thirties over the summer.

Looking Ahead…

The poll results are indicative of how poorly the one-month-old Donald Trump campaign is going so far. The former president’s stock is dipping as lawsuits, investigations, and scandals mount. Meanwhile, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is emerging as a MAGA-certified alternative to Trump.

Counting Trump out would be foolhardy – he is uniquely resilient. But Trump’s edge over right-wing voters appears to be fading. Trump is vulnerable, which will inspire vigorous challenges to his hold on the GOP.

Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.

Written By

Harrison Kass is a Senior Defense Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison has degrees from Lake Forest College, the University of Oregon School of Law, and New York University’s Graduate School of Arts & Sciences. He lives in Oregon and regularly listens to Dokken.