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Is Putin Slowly Preparing a New Ukraine Invasion Through Belarus?

M109 Paladin. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Russia Is Transferring Personnel and Military Equipment Closer to Ukraine Border. Is Putin Planning for the Future?: Following a working visit to Belarus on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have approved the transfer of Russian soldiers and military equipment from training grounds in northern and central Belarus closer to the border with Ukraine.

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The news was shared by the independent Belarusian outlet Belarusian Hajun.

“The Russian Federation has begun the transfer to the south of Belarus of equipment that was previously brought to training grounds with the mobilized Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,” a Telegram post revealed.

Among the equipment moved to the border were tanks and military trucks. However, the number of troops moved to the border does not immediately suggest that Russia is preparing to launch an offensive from Belarus – with or without the help of Belarusian troops.

According to the report, the number of troops and vehicles moved is “small and definitely not enough for any offensive action.”

Belarus Announces Joint Drills

A press release from the Defense Ministry of Belarus shared on Tuesday described how Russian and Belarusian troops are holding joint combat training drills as part of an effort to establish “unit cohesion.”

In the statement, Belarusian defense officials noted how both the Russian and Belarusian Armed Forces have ordered “unit cohesion measures on the territory of Belarus” with soldiers undergoing tactical, medical, firearms, and engineering training.

“The Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation making part of the regional group of forces are carrying out unit cohesion measures on the territory of Belarus. At the Brestsky training ground, the Belarusian and Russian troops continue holding joint combat training drills to practice elements of tactical, firearms, medical and engineer training, as well as riding combat vehicles across rough terrain,” the statement reads.

It comes after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced in October that the two countries had begun deploying a new regional group of forces.

The announcement, however, still doesn’t suggest that Belarus is expected to join the war in Ukraine. The statement also comes a day after the Russian president insisted during a press conference that the Russian Federation “has no interest” in absorbing Belarus.

“Russia has no interest in absorbing anyone,” Putin told reporters in Minsk, addressing rumors that the visit was part of a plan to merge the countries. “It just doesn’t make sense.”

While few details about the discussions between the two leaders on Monday were revealed to the press, Ukrainian officials expressed concern that it could be the start of a renewed offensive in Ukraine.

Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor.

Written By

Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive's Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

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