Who’s winning the financial war between Russia and the West? And what does it mean to win or lose?
This is the third of a five-part series on the financial dimensions of the Russia-Ukraine War; here are parts one and two, along with part four and part five here.
Russia vs. the West: The Impact
The impact of the Western financial campaign against Russia remains uncertain.
In the short term, the campaign of financial coercion has neither made it impossible for Russia to continue its war nor dissuaded the Kremlin from pursuing its invasion. The financial campaign has not destroyed the Russian economy, and it is difficult to isolate the economic and military components of the damage that the economy has suffered thus far from financial warfare. The Western campaign has not prevented Russia from accessing foreign military assistance. However, it may have limited the extent to which Russia could do so and the partners with whom Russia could work.
The ruble has not collapsed. Indeed, the ruble remains strong relative to most foreign currencies, although this is in large part because of the difficulty of conversion. Inflation has dropped substantially since the first days of the war when it reached 17.8%. Interest rates are also down considerably, not far off from the pre-war norm. Especially given that most Western countries are also suffering high inflation, the Russian experience does not seem completely outside the norm.
These steps have made it difficult for Russian companies to raise funds from international sources, and largely impossible for the Russian government to do so, although the Kremlin did not borrow much in Western capital markets anyway. Russia still has access to domestic bond markets, which have continued to attract some foreign investment. The Russian stock market has taken a beating, but not one out of line with other recent Russian market crashes. Russia’s use of SPFS and several other tools to evade the SWIFT cutoff have limited the extent of damage to Russia’s financial system, and to the domestic holdings of Russian citizens.
Russia has defaulted on its debt, but it has not gone bankrupt in a sense that is meaningful for its ability to continue the war. The beginning of the war unsurprisingly created international instability, which has driven energy prices up. Although Russia’s energy export options became more limited under the impact of sanctions, it has continued to deliver to some customers (even in Europe), and has found new customers to take on at least part of the shortfall. The price increases more than made up for the decline in exports, at least in the early months of the conflict.
Russia has developed alternative means of acquiring the weapons it needs to continue the war. A deal with Iran for drones and ballistic missiles involved the transfer of some hard currency along with captured examples of a variety of Western military technology. Russia has also acquired ammunition from Belarus and North Korea, although the details of those details remain unclear. In any case, energy sales have ensured that Russia has the financial capacity to buy weapons from abroad, even if other elements of the sanctions regime (primarily export controls) hinder Russian ambitions.
Yet the picture is not all rosy for Russia.
Stabilizing the financial system and the government revenue system at the expense of living standards. In September, Russia announced deep cuts to government spending in all areas other than defense, suggesting that the government is struggling to make ends meet. While interest rates are well down from their peak, they remain high and, in the long run, could risk strangling economic activity.
Changing the terms of contracts with Western energy consumers gives those consumers an excuse to escape the contracts, dramatically reducing Russia’s most lucrative energy exports.
Russia Has Survived, So Far
Russia is surviving in the short term, to the consternation of the West. But some of the steps that Russia has taken to defend itself have a limited lifespan, and in any case Moscow hasn’t been able to save Russia’s long-term economic prospects.
Still, had the war lasted only a few weeks (as many expected), Russia’s preparations might have succeeded in insulating it from severe economic damage.
Unfortunately for Putin, Russia’s armies could not quickly win the battles in the field enough to save the Russian economy.
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.
403Forbidden
December 13, 2022 at 9:10 am
The west, led by babylon-on-the-potomac, wants to strangle russia economically and financially, buy has only succeeded in dividing mankind into camps.
One camp (the west) has pursued the genghisian double-pronged strategy of applying proxy wars plus direct straight-to-the-neck strangulation but this age-old strategy is no longer effective in the modern world.
The other camp has doubled down on brotherly close cooperation and doing numerous covert business deals, supplying what the other fellow needs. Including fuel, special lubricants, UAVs, chips, etc. etc..
The effect is the burning of bridges, the more bridges burned the greater the threat of all-out confrontation.
Thus the biden of 2022 is like the kaiser of 1914, wanting to fully strangle the sworn enemy to death, but only destined to vacate the throne or the white house by 2024/5.
GhostTomahawk
December 13, 2022 at 10:20 am
The west declared financial war on themselves. Since they imposed these sanctions global economies have begun a rapid collapse especially in the 2nd and 3rd world. This is by design though. Money doesn’t disappear it goes to someone. We’re seeing more massive wealth redistribution
Gary Jacobs
December 13, 2022 at 10:40 am
Russian Urals crude oil fell to below $55 a barrel in mid-December, a new low since January of 2021, trading at a discount of about $20 to the international Brent crude oil benchmark.
Rising freight costs for tankers carrying Russian oil pushed prices down, with many shipowners refraining from handling Russian oil as the price cap and the EU ban on Russian oil imports went into effect on December 5th.
G7 countries, the EU and Australia agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap for Russian seaborne oil which bans maritime transportation services for Russian crude oil unless it is sold at or below $60 per barrel.
Urals oil price remains nearly half of $111 touched in early March when the war in Ukraine started.
Sanctions were never going to be a short term fix…and This is unsustainable for Russia in the medium to long term.
Germany will have multiple floating LNG terminals on line soon. One is already up and running. Israel is sending gas to Egypt’s LNG terminal to convert there and send to EU. The US is sending massive LNG supplies, and so are others. Dozens of ships are always waiting off the coast of EU countries to offload.
As well, industrial scale Hydrogen is coming on line sooner than later to replace gas for ships, trains, and large industries. Israel’s H2Pro and other EU companies have made major breakthroughs. Germany’s LNG terminals are future-proofed to convert to Hydrogen when the supplies are available.
Bottom line: Russia is now, and will continue to lose the energy and economy war. The sanctions are just about to start having a much bigger impact.
Have a liberating day.
Fred Adams
December 13, 2022 at 10:47 am
This reporting is a series of speculative assertions unsupported by factual citations. It is difficult to truthfully report on Russia, because “the facts” are developed and distributed by instruments of the Russian government. It would be interesting to have some real information.
Putin Apologist
December 13, 2022 at 10:54 am
Saint Petersburg saw its first snow of this winter season two days ago. With the city lit up in Christmas lights and holiday shoppers scurrying from shop to shop one would not know that Mother Russia was under “unprecedented” Western sanctions.
Now contrast this festive picture of Russia with the energy shortages of Western European cities.
Gary Jacobs
December 13, 2022 at 11:11 am
Btw…as this report is touting Russia’s ability to obtain military supplies from countries like Iran and N. Korea…that in-and-of itself is actually a sign of the decline in a major source of revenue for Putin’s kleptocracy as Russia was a major arms exporter.
India has repeatedly cancelled or severely delayed contracts from Russia for big ticket MiG-29 orders, Russian helicopter orders and anti-tank weapon orders. As well as repeatedly delays in the setting up of an Indo-Russia joint venture for manufacturing more than 600,000 AK-203 assault rifles.
Similarly delayed has been the delivery of four follow-on Talwar-class guided-missile frigates for the Indian Navy, two of them to be constructed in Kaliningrad and two in Mumbai. Russia has also deferred supplies to India of systems and spares for its Kilo-class submarines and its MiG-29 fighters and Mi-17 transport helicopters. Also delayed are five S-400 Triumf missile-defence systems.
Uncertainty in arms supply led India to suspend negotiations with Rosoboronexport, the export arm of Russian defence conglomerate Rostec, and its sister concern, Russian Helicopters, for 10 more Kamov Ka-31 helicopters costing $520 million. The Indian Navy currently operates 14 Ka-31s.
And instead of buying Russian fighters, India bought French Rafales, and are looking at F18s for their carriers and land based maritime air wings. They previously spent Billion$ buying US helicopters in 2020, and now the US is looking to fill in the void with the latest cancelled order from Russia by India.
And it isnt just at the government level. The death of an Indian student in the bombardment of Kharkiv had also begun to turn public opinion in India a while ago…giving Modi ample public backing for what is a major Indian realignment.
Russia has had to suspend multimillion-dollar arms contracts with other nations, either because of the sanctions or in order to replenish losses of combat equipment from its naked aggression in Ukraine.
Bottom line: Russia’s economy is in big trouble. The longer the war, sanctions, and cancelled military orders go on… the worse it will get.
Jim
December 13, 2022 at 11:23 am
If the goal of the sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy, it has failed.
Failed.
Russia is restructuring their economy away from Europe and toward Asia (with negative long term consequences for Europe).
A premise of the sanctions regime was that its reach controlled the whole world’s ability in economically interact with Russia… didn’t work out that way.
Nothing about this war has worked out… as they told us it would…
Empty assurances… how many times does Lucy have to pull the football on Charlie Brown (Ukraine supporters assuring Americans that Russia will stumble & fall).
When does that start bothering you?
As for Gary’s summary of Europe’s energy picture: I hope he’s right… I have no interest in Europe being cold, let alone freezing this Winter.
But one thing he left out… it’s way more expensive… to the point that basic industries are no longer competitive… Germany is suffering economically…
As is the rest of Europe.
German industrialists are contemplating leaving Germany for areas with inexpensive energy… to survive as ongoing industrial concerns.
Face it, the economic sanctions regime is an epic fail.
Those that want to dominate the world… they don’t care how much their fanatical plans are backfiring and hurting the U. S. and our allies in Europe.
They will never admit the truth.
(At best they are uniformed… at worst they are unpatriotic… because their fanatical agenda hurts the American People… they know it but don’t care.)
Gary Jacobs
December 13, 2022 at 11:34 am
Putin Apologist,
LoL, you at least get credit for being upfront about your status as Putinista troll farm livestock.
On St. Pete…Russia is of course a mafia state. Smuggling of goods is to be expected. The question is what is the premium now being paid to fill those stores that only certain Russians can afford to shop in?
As well, what western energy shortage? All is good here in the US. The price of oil has collapsed from a high of over $120 per barrel in March to $72 per barrel now. Nat Gas is even more plentiful. And the US is sending a lot of LNG to the EU. Some of their prices may be higher as they cut off their use of Russian gas, but all opinion polls indicate the vast majority of them are willing to pay more now to cut off Russia’s energy weapon once and for all.
See my above post about the price of Russian Ural oil trading $20 less than Brent, German LNG conversion terminals, and the dozens of ships always rotating off EU countries waiting to offload new gas supplies.
Bottom line: things are only going to get worse for Russia.
Have a liberating day
Gary Jacobs
December 13, 2022 at 11:40 am
Jim,
you are grasping at a snapshot in time. It is a bit more expensive, but the price of NatGas has collapsed in the EU recently. In part because the winter has been more mild than usual…and the other part is the massive influx of LNG from the US, Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and N. Africa.
It’s pretty easy to do that basic research to see where the current price is instead of relying on the old info in your post.
Here is a basic timeline for you to start with:
Oct 26, 2022 — The price of benchmark European natural gas futures has dropped 20% since last Thursday, and by more than 70% since hitting a record high.
Nov. 2 Goldman Sachs predicts that European natural gas prices would drop by about another 30%
Nov 7. Germany’s gas stockpiles are more than 99% full: GIE data
Nov 17 – Europe could end winter with better-than-expected natural gas storage levels because of unseasonably warm weather
Goran
December 13, 2022 at 12:09 pm
I feel sadness seeing what’s barreling toward an average Russian family, already just trying to make ends meet. They live in a dictatorship and those who dare speak against this insanity perpetuated in Ukraine, are promptly punished. Stuck between a rock and a very hard future that’s coming their way.
This is much more than losing the European market for Russian oil and gas, this is about technology, investments, education and it manifests in every pore of human activity, be it Western Union or World Cup. Taking Bakhmut or Zaporizhzhia or even Kharkiv does not change any of that, only withdrawal can.
Jim
December 13, 2022 at 12:48 pm
Gary, LNG from the U. S. is several times more expensive in Europe than the U. S.
The situation is more than a “snapshot,” it’s ongoing and will persist… as long as this war goes on.
Crude oil prices at roughly $75 a barrel is reasonable… but that’s because demand world-wide is down because economies are not creating higher demand.
China has been hurting themselves with zero-covid policies… although because of recent protests… those policies have been relaxed… who knows where oil prices go, if & when China and other countries’ economies (including the U. S.) speed up.
My priority… a competitive advantage for the U. S. based on our natural, potential energy abundance… leading to inexpensive energy for transportation, heating, electricity & industrial production.
And secondarily, Europe has affordable energy that makes Europe prosperous… wherever that energy can be acquire from… in the future hydrocarbons can be secured from the Mediterranean Basin… physical evidence strongly suggests the basin is plentiful with hydrocarbons for all of Europe.
It simply takes political will.
Jim
December 13, 2022 at 1:58 pm
Goran, it sounds like you are in mourning for Europe.
Either, intentionally or unintentionally you are projecting your sense of grief for the suffering of Europe onto the Russian People.
“Projection” onto opponents what one is doing or feeling, themselves, is a classic psychological coping mechanism or intentional tactic to avoid responsibility.
Goran, it’s Europe that is suffering, not Russia.
Johhny Ray
December 13, 2022 at 2:43 pm
Yes, there is a financial war.
Also, there are several other levels of warfare going on, including a propaganda war. I don’t know who or what to believe about Russian finances. Freezing $300 billion of foreign reserves would seem to have some impact, or maybe not. Etc.
Also, who has a complete set of facts and access to the real books on Russian finance? I would think very few people in the world have that access or knowledge.
Over the long run, it seems to me Russia has cut it’s own throat in regards to any kind of civil political or financial relationship with the west for many decades to come. Russia is a country that cannot be trusted at any level.
Yet, their oil reserves will likely generate decent income for many decades so that they might become a self sufficient but peculiar world outcast. In any case they will NOT be close to a world class power at any level. Just another problem child.
It’s complicated for sure.
marcjf
December 13, 2022 at 2:54 pm
The shooting war is a part of a wider conflict between the USA/NATO/WEST [and its “rules based order” and petro-dollar] and what some now term a multi-polar world and BRIICSS and a commodity based reserve currency system.
At the present time IMHO Russia has maybe suffered short term disruption but is ahead on most counts, especially in helping to form an [anti-western] bloc. The majority of the world governments are sitting on the fence to see who wins.
The USA is ahead as it is selling [evil] petroleum products to Europe at premium prices, and Europe is going to suffer a severe recession as a result, and long term de-industrialisation if it does not change course. Russia and BRIICSS are meanwhile creating a parallel economic structure which will be immune from the USD influence.
Hubris is a terrible thing.It is possible to over play one’s hand.
Commentar
December 13, 2022 at 3:38 pm
The world must see the forest, the real one, not the thing in staring at you in front of your face.
In Nov 2020, the deep state or the american shadow govt or shadow agency rigged the US presidential contest to enable sleepy Joe or dementia joe to become president.
Since becoming president, sleepy Joe/dementia joe has become overwhelmed by a desire to remake the world, first or foremost by fomenting bloody proxy war against Russia.
This dirty very evil desire thus has seen sleepy Joe fully morphed into antichrist joe or chief-of-all-devils ? joe.
Antichrist joe has by now poured billions of dollars into the war, while slapping his chest and boasting about US ‘democracy’ and US economic growth.
Chief-of-all-devils joe / antichrist joe thinks he will soon crush Russia financially with help from America’s vast army of obedient minions, but he has failed to see europe slowly going under from his actions.
Latest reports say UK is now experiencing coldest temperatures of 2022 even though winter has only just begun, giving the lie to claims 2022 will see a mild winter.
What about places nearer to the Arctic, like newly minted minions or loyalists such as sweden, Finland, Poland, Denmark,etc. They will soon shrilly & loudly curse the antichrist for busting the europe Nord Stream pipes !!!
Jim
December 13, 2022 at 4:18 pm
Johhny, you’re right about the Russians being the only people who know the true state of their finances.
(Although, there are visible indicia which suggest Russia is doing okay… such as the Ruble holding steady and food & goods being available & plentiful in Russian supermarkets, et cetera.)
However, most of the world’s nation-states are neutral and continue to trade with Russia and, also, maybe more important, engage Russia diplomatically.
At this point Russia is not a diplomatic outcast world-wide and there is nothing suggesting their diplomatic standing is in any danger.
(Obviously, the collective West has done their best to diplomatically & economically isolate Russia… so far, beyond the West’s own borders… it has failed.)
Omega 13
December 13, 2022 at 5:54 pm
Who’s winning? China. They’re buying lots of Russian oil and gas. They don’t give a rat’s bung about any kind of sanctions.
Serhio
December 14, 2022 at 3:56 am
Gary Jacobs
“It’s pretty easy to do that basic research to see where the current price is instead of relying on the old info in your post.
Here is a basic timeline for you to start with:
Oct 26, 2022 — The price of benchmark European natural gas futures has dropped 20% since last Thursday, and by more than 70% since hitting a record high.
Nov. 2 Goldman Sachs predicts that European natural gas prices would drop by about another 30%
Nov 7. Germany’s gas stockpiles are more than 99% full: GIE data
Nov 17 – Europe could end winter with better-than-expected natural gas storage levels because of unseasonably warm weather
”
You’re trying to juggle numbers as usual. Why did you stop on November 17th? Because it was a day when the price of gas corresponds to your reasoning? And then she went up. And then it shrank again. But the main thing is not this, but the fact that despite the current decline, gas quotes are several times higher than the average over the long-term history of observations. There has never been such a steady increase in prices in the entire history of gas hubs in Europe .
Let’s return to the filled gas storage facilities. I would like to be happy for Europe, but it doesn’t work out. The fact that the gas storage facilities are full is good. The bad thing is that they were filled at prices that were peak. And this gas will not be sold to consumers at the “low” (in fact, these prices are terrible compared to last winter) prices that have been established now. Also, the filling of gas storage facilities was carried out through the Nord Stream, which “someone” blew up. After the gas from the storage facilities is used up, it will cost much more to fill the storage facilities for the winter of 23/24. Simply because there is not so much free LNG on the world market. For the LNG that is on the market, Europe will compete with Asia, pushing up prices even higher. Europeans can only hope that energy-intensive industries will have time to escape from Europe to Turkey, China or the USA (regions where gas is much cheaper) before next winter and will not consume scarce gas. But along with the productions, jobs and taxes will go away. Strikes and rallies are already taking place all over Europe. Next winter there will be pogroms and barricades. Europe flourished thanks to cheap energy from Russia. Now Europe is doomed to poverty. It won’t be African poverty yet. But there will be no relative abundance “until 2022”. There will be nothing to support its own parasites and refugees from Africa and the East, who came from countries that set fire to the United States and Europe, in order to fill their pockets.
Serhio
December 14, 2022 at 4:11 am
Gary Jacobs
“It’s pretty easy to do that basic research to see where the current price is instead of relying on the old info in your post.
Here is a basic timeline for you to start with:
Oct 26, 2022 — The price of benchmark European natural gas futures has dropped 20% since last Thursday, and by more than 70% since hitting a record high.
Nov. 2 Goldman Sachs predicts that European natural gas prices would drop by about another 30%
Nov 7. Germany’s gas stockpiles are more than 99% full: GIE data
Nov 17 – Europe could end winter with better-than-expected natural gas storage levels because of unseasonably warm weather
”
You’re trying to juggle numbers as usual. Why did you stop on November 17th? Because it was a day when the price of gas corresponds to your reasoning? And then she went up. And then it shrank again. But the main thing is not this, but the fact that despite the current decline, gas quotes are several times higher than the average over the long-term history of observations. There has never been such a steady increase in prices in the entire history of gas hubs in Europe.
Let’s return to the filled gas storage facilities. I would like to be happy for Europe, but it doesn’t work out. The fact that the gas storage facilities are full is good. The bad thing is that they were filled at prices that were peak. And this gas will not be sold to consumers at the “low” (in fact, these prices are terrible compared to last winter) prices that have been established now. Also, the filling of gas storage facilities was carried out through the Nord Stream, which “someone” blew up. After the gas from the storage facilities is used up, it will cost much more to fill the storage facilities for the winter of 23/24. Simply because there is not so much free LNG on the world market. For the LNG that is on the market, Europe will compete with Asia, pushing up prices even higher. Europeans can only hope that energy-intensive industries will have time to escape from Europe to Turkey, China or the USA (regions where gas is much cheaper) before next winter and will not consume scarce gas. But along with the productions, jobs and taxes will go away. Strikes and rallies are already taking place all over Europe. Next winter there will be pogroms and barricades. Europe flourished thanks to cheap energy from Russia. Now Europe is doomed to poverty. It won’t be African poverty yet. But there will be no relative abundance “until 2022”. There will be nothing to support its own parasites and refugees from Africa and the East, who came from countries that set fire to the United States and Europe, in order to fill their pockets.
Serhio
December 14, 2022 at 4:57 am
Gary Jacobs
“In part because the winter has been more mild than usual…and the other part is the massive influx of LNG from the US, Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and N. Africa.”
On the issue of “abandoning Russian gas”.
Recently, the authorities of the Republic of Moldova proudly stated that gas imports have been successfully diversified. Another step has been taken on the path to independence for a proud little country. Since the beginning of December, Moldova has started receiving gas from Romania via the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline (approximately 2.5 million cubic meters).
Is Gazprom’s management tearing its chest hair and crying?
Where did the gas get to Romania? According to ENTSOG data, gas came to Romania from the Turkish Stream, where, by pure coincidence, Russian gas supplies have increased since the same December. How much do you think Romanians are making on resale?
But Moldovans have a lot of money, they have nothing to worry about. After all, the US allocates them $19.5 million “to reduce dependence on Russia” by connecting Moldova’s energy sector to European systems. This is all you need to know about the “rejection of Russian gas.” The USA is rich, they will pay for everyone.
Gans
December 14, 2022 at 5:30 am
The West is currently no different from the fascist Europe of 1932-1945.
Then the Jews were persecuted. Now the Russians are being persecuted
Goran
December 14, 2022 at 9:48 am
Gans, it is wrong to portray this as Russians vs the West, this is exclusively Putin’s fault, as he is operating from the position of a brutal dictator. With that in mind, it is very dangerous to be tying the future of Russians to Putin’s success in bullying countries into submission. He just cannot win this.
p.s. not agreeing with Putin does not mean giving up on Russians in Ukraine, and a compromise can be reached that allows for some form of non-territorial autonomy for Russians living in a sovereign and territorially intact Ukraine.
Dan
December 14, 2022 at 10:29 am
I read the comments with pleasure, but in none of them I can find discussions of specific project proposals – only descriptions of various assessments of the present and future? And what, for example, to do with the Ukrainian territories? If you don’t fight the dictator – give up and agree to cede Ukrainian territories to Putin, won’t he want to go further – to Europe? To begin with – the Baltic States, Poland? Or to blackmail what is about to happen and, against this background, to seek political preferences from the West that are pleasing to the regime? Won’t Europeans, in the medium/long term, be even more dependent on the type of Putin’s economy? Especially, given the factor of China, which, having received a “good” example, together with Russia, will gradually cover the EU with economic expansion? And how will China behave in relation to Taiwan after it gains confidence in impunity with the possibility of acquiring new territories with monopoly resources? Don’t forget what sensitive technologies for the global economy are in Taiwan?
Bertram
December 14, 2022 at 10:49 am
Financial war can hurt Russia, but bullets, bombs and missiles will be required to defeat it. Keep killing Russians until no longer come. Keep bombing Russian facilities until they stop getting repaired. Destroy their will and ability to continue the aggression. Someone will decide to retire Putin before the country freezes in the dark.
Dan
December 14, 2022 at 10:54 am
Goran, nevertheless, saw some concrete proposal: “not agreeing with Putin does not mean abandoning the Russians in Ukraine, and a compromise can be reached that allows for some form of non-territorial autonomy for Russians living in sovereign and territorially whole Ukraine.” Why not ? Another option is an analogue of the peace treaty between Finland and the Stalinist USSR, after the Winter War! 939 – 1940: Finland ceded about 10% of the territory to the USSR, but retained state sovereignty, a democratic political system with a European vector of development and social order based on private initiative. And for many years he cleverly finds a political and diplomatic compromise in relations with the northern neighbor – a monster, which also, having a significantly stronger military potential, could not achieve a military result and inflict a quick defeat on the Suomi armed forces during the Winter War.
Dan
December 14, 2022 at 11:11 am
Clarification on the text – I meant “The Winter War of 1939 – 1940 of Finland with the USSR … a monster that, having a much stronger military potential, also could not achieve quick military goals during the Winter War.”
Dan
December 14, 2022 at 11:50 am
Bertrand, I cannot but agree with your thesis: “Someone will decide to dismiss Putin before the country freezes in darkness.”, since world history has repeatedly proved that the only way to stop the expanding aggression of a dictator with imperial ambitions and violated psychologists of adequate behavior, only military defeats with irreversible political consequences. At the same time, let’s remember the relations: the USSR – Finland, Iraq – Kuwait, the Arab states or Iran – Israel, China – Taiwan … And where would Hitler and the Reich be if the Wehrmacht of the Reich had not been defeated by the countries of the anti-Hitler coalition? In the period 1939 – 1945 and until the early 50s, Europe also had economic upheavals due to the 2nd World War, but none of the Europeans wanted to give up freedom and go, for example, to the Stalinist socialist camp of “general prosperity, equality and brotherhood.”
Dan
December 14, 2022 at 11:54 am
Continued in the text: … to the Stalinist socialist camp of “general prosperity, equality and fraternity.”
Jim
December 14, 2022 at 1:39 pm
Goran, Putin made the speech about Ukraine’s Nato membership being a “Red Line” to Russia.
But Mr. Burns, the present CIA head stated years ago, that Ukraine’s potential Nato membership being a “Red Line” was almost universal among Russians, in the power circles & on the street.
It’s not just Putin… it’s almost all Russians.
And the collective West has known this reality for years.
But the Western Elite didn’t care… they kept pushing up to Russian’s border with the Ukraine Project.
Nato has turned into an offensive instrument for Washington and the other Nato states are Washington’s vassal states… this is wrong for Europe.
Goran, when the Soviet Union collapsed, analysts in the U. S. knew TWO things.
1. Afghanistan was a significant part of the collapse.
2. If the Soviet Union collapsed into constituent parts, then Russia could also collapse into constituent parts (the Russian Federation also has ethnic constituencies… i.e., Chechnya… where, in fact, the CIA fostered a revolt put down by Putin).
That was in 2000…
So this Ukraine project has been in the works for roughly 30 years, but THEY NEVER TOLD THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ABOUT THEIR SCHEME.
What is the penalty for pushing such an aggressive scheme without telling the American People?
Tamerlane
December 14, 2022 at 1:57 pm
Well if they didn’t Dan, what explains our administration forcibly repatriating 2.5 million anti-Soviet White Russians (many of whom had never been Soviet citizens) to the USSR to die? What explains our admin ordering our generals to stop at the Elbe? What explains our betrayal of the lawful government of Yugoslavia/Mihailović and support for communist dictator Tito? What explains our betrayal of the Polish government and people to the Soviets? What of the Hungarians who under Regent Horthy so resisted the Holocaust for so long? What explains the refusal to simply provide gasoline to whole German armies fighting to hold back the Soviets long after Hitler was dead and to join them in pushing the Communists out of western and Central Europe? The Germans in the west were barely putting up resistance and had their units cohesively kept together as POWs by American generals who notified the German commanders that they were soon to be on the same side fighting the Soviets—and these self-same German combat soldiers were fighting to stop Bolshevism far more than advance Nazism… in fact it was not a general behind the lines who acted to kill Hitler, but a combat soldier on convalescent duty…
But that brings me to ask this, you wrote:
“[W]orld history has repeatedly proved that the only way to stop the expanding aggression of a dictator with imperial ambitions and violated psychologists of adequate behavior, only military defeats with irreversible political consequences”.
Is that true? Is that what stopped Stalin and the Soviet Union? Of was it what Nobel laureate Frederich Hayek labeled “the fatal conceit” of central planners’ inevitable failure to be able to efficiently calculate which doomed the Soviets’ collectivism? Was it military defeat or the free market which defeated the greatest despotism and mass murdering regime in world history?
Do you not remember the Cold War? Why do you believe that the military conflagration which would have consumed us had we directly fought the Soviets after their espionage and theft of nuclear capacity rendered them a peer during the Cold War would be evaded now if we engaged a nuclear hypersonically armed Russia—a state with far greater WMB capacity than the USSR?
What you propose is utterly juvenile and illreasoned.
Walker
December 14, 2022 at 6:05 pm
To the Russian idiots saying “Ukraine in NATO is a red line.”
Who gives a flying F! Imagine telling your neighbor, “If you paint your house blue, I will kill you!” Unless you live in a HOA your neighbor can paint their house any dang color they like whether you like it or not. If you don’t want them to color their house that color, you need to convince them not to, murder isn’t an acceptable answer.
But let’s drop the BS. Russians don’t care about NATO other than they have been lied to. Russia is in no more danger from NATO whether Ukraine is in NATO or not. Putin and his communo-mafia authoracrat buddies have only one thing in mind, placating the Russian sense of entitlement of being some great empire. Russians can’t accept that they live in a real shite-hole. They see the rich theives who have stood from them for the last thirty years and think that they should all be that rich.
I say F the Russians, basically every last one of them. I have a little more respect for the individuals that disagree with the Putin regime, but their lack of standing up to him over the last 30 years means they get what they deserve.
Dmitri Zorkin
December 14, 2022 at 6:11 pm
You sir. are complitely retarded. How much did the Kremlin pay you for such fantasies? Are you really not a clown?
Dmitri Zorkin
December 14, 2022 at 6:49 pm
Jim
“It’s not just Putin… it’s almost all Russians.”
And how can you talk about all Russians? What do you even know about Russians and life in Russia? I’m sure you don’t know ANYTHING.
But I have relatives and friends there, and I know perfectly well the mood in Russia. And here’s what I’ll tell you, the average Russian, if he is not a finished “vatnik” does not see a threat in NATO at all, and he absolutely does not care about what is happening there abroad. At least there was until 2013, when the Putin regime (and now it can be frankly considered a fascist dictatorship) began to actively brainwash the population through television. If you want to see the enormity of Putin’s propaganda, welcome to @Julia Davis’s Twitter channel. And such a monstrous propaganda of hatred of the Russians has been processed for YEARS, to the approving exclamations of all Putin fersteiers like you.
There is no need to talk about some Red Lines here. Given the fact that this year Finland quietly joined NATO, and that there is no particular hysteria from the Kremlin. It is not visible that something and an increase in confrontation on the border.
SO the thesis that this war was due to some kind of NATO expansion is absolute nonsense, and the Kremlin’s myth, created in order to justify its aggression in Ukraine.
Moreover, the example of Ukraine and Belarus perfectly shows all post-Soviet countries that NATO is the ONLY way for them to provide at least some kind of security from the aggressive imperial steps of Russia. The Baltic countries managed to jump into NATO, and therefore feel calm. Belarus, on the other hand, received a quiet annexation by Russia, and almost completely lost its sovereignty. And Ukraine got the war, because all these years it was too friendly towards Russia, and did not even think about joining NATO.
Thus, NATO is the only guarantor of security in Europe from the aggressive Putin regime. Or do you think that the inhabitants of Eastern Europe are some kind of second-class people, and they do not have the right to their sovereignty? Then you are an ordinary Putin’s fascist.
By the way, according to the results of public opinion polls in 2014, only 15% of the Ukrainian population was in favor of joining NATO.
Dmitri Zorkin
December 14, 2022 at 7:09 pm
Jim, But the Western Elite didn’t care… they kept pushing up to Russian’s border with the Ukraine Project.
This is a typical Kremlin lie and substitution of concepts. Firstly, no one in Western Europe is imposing NATO. Rather, on the contrary, the countries of Eastern Europe are striving to join NATO in order to at least somehow ensure their security and development. You again repeat an absolutely immoral chauvinistic idea, as if the inhabitants of countries east of Berlin are some kind of 3rd grade people who do not have the right to BUILD their national policy and security, AND DIRECTLY OBLIGED to follow urgings from Moscow throughout their history. Moscow did not deserve respect in any way from the Ukrainians, whom it forcibly Russified for years, and then also repeated the Holodomor, nor from the Belarusians, nor from the Balts, nor from the Georgians.
So maybe it’s Moscow that behaves a little differently so that the countries of Eastern Europe do not aspire to join NATO?
But now, after the aggressive invasion of Ukraine, for example, the Baltic countries are finally convinced that they did the right thing by joining NATO. Although there was a lot of controversy about this before.
During these 30 years, Russia has been forgiven for almost all sins. The genocide of the Chechen population, the barbaric bombing of Grozny, the invasion of Transnistria, Georgia, the illegal annexation of Crimea. Hybrid Invasion on the Donbass. Wars in Syria, Russian mercenaries in Africa. Maybe it’s enough already to tell these tales about Poor, unfortunate Russia, offended by everyone?
Serhio
December 14, 2022 at 9:02 pm
Dmitri Zorkin
“But I have relatives and friends there, and I know perfectly well the mood in Russia. And here’s what I’ll tell you, the average Russian, if he is not a finished “vatnik” does not see a threat in NATO at all, and he absolutely does not care about what is happening there abroad. At least there was until 2013, when the Putin regime (and now it can be frankly considered a fascist dictatorship) began to actively brainwash the population through television.”
I’ve talked to Russians like you. There are such too. But most Russians, who are minimally interested in politics, consider NATO a threat. But it’s not really that important. The common man has his own problems and worries. How to feed the children? How to pay the mortgage? The threat from NATO among these problems used to be at the end of the list. However, the people who are at the head of the country and who decide for the rest, clearly and clearly stated that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is unacceptable for Russia. He who has ears will hear. Ukraine did not hear and included NATO membership in its constitution as a goal of life. Thus violating their own laws. On July 16, 1990, the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR adopted the Declaration on State Sovereignty of Ukraine. And in the section “External and internal security” it was clearly stated: “The Ukrainian SSR solemnly proclaims its intention to become a permanently neutral state in the future, not participating in military blocs.” But those people who illegally seized power in Kiev spat on the laws of their own country. You can spit in the direction of Putin. But you can’t accuse him of lying. He warned everyone in advance that Ukraine’s desire to join NATO would bring a lot of problems. Are there any problems? There is. Are there many of them? A lot. Eat with a full spoon, because you have been striving for this for a long time and hard.
Serhio
December 14, 2022 at 9:13 pm
Walker
“Who gives a flying F! Imagine telling your neighbor, “If you paint your house blue, I will kill you!” Unless you live in a HOA your neighbor can paint their house any dang color they like whether you like it or not. If you don’t want them to color their house that color, you need to convince them not to, murder isn’t an acceptable answer.”
A silly analogy. Your neighbor doesn’t just want to paint the house. He wants to do it with your blood. If you are such a humanitarian, you can go and drain your blood in a bucket. Or you can prevent such desires. There is always a choice.
Serhio
December 14, 2022 at 9:49 pm
Dan
“read the comments with pleasure, but in none of them I can find discussions of specific project proposals – only descriptions of various assessments of the present and future? And what, for example, to do with the Ukrainian territories?”
There is an option, but it will never be implemented, because the United States does not need peace and this country will strongly oppose the conclusion of peace. Stop military operations. To form a UN commission that will include only representatives of countries that are not involved in the conflict: China, Africa, Latin America. This commission organizes a referendum in every region of Ukraine on how people see their future. According to the results, part of the regions remains Ukraine. Part goes to Hungary, Romania, Poland and Russia, possibly Belarus. Some of them become independent republics. Pure democracy.
Dmitri Zorkin
December 14, 2022 at 9:56 pm
Jim, But the Western Elite didn’t care… they kept pushing up to Russian’s border with the Ukraine Project.
This is a typical Kremlin lie and substitution of concepts. Firstly, no one in Western Europe is imposing NATO. Rather, on the contrary, the countries of Eastern Europe are striving to join NATO in order to at least somehow ensure their security and development. You again repeat an absolutely immoral chauvinistic idea, as if the inhabitants of countries east of Berlin are some kind of 3rd grade people who do not have the right to BUILD their national policy and security, AND DIRECTLY OBLIGED to follow urgings from Moscow throughout their history. Moscow did not deserve respect in any way from the Ukrainians, whom it forcibly Russified for years, and then also repeated the Holodomor, nor from the Belarusians, nor from the Balts, nor from the Georgians.
So maybe it’s Moscow that behaves a little differently so that the countries of Eastern Europe do not aspire to join NATO?
But now, after the aggressive invasion of Ukraine, for example, the Baltic countries are finally convinced that they did the right thing by joining NATO. Although there was a lot of controversy about this before.
During these 30 years, Russia has been forgiven for almost all sins. The genocide of the Chechen population, the barbaric bombing of Grozny, the invasion of Transnistria, Georgia, the illegal annexation of Crimea. Hybrid Invasion on the Donbass. Wars in Syria, Russian mercenaries in Africa. Maybe it’s enough already to tell these tales about Poor, unfortunate Russia, offended by everyone? For these 30 years, Russia has been given quite a lot of discounts.
Philthegardner
December 15, 2022 at 12:24 am
Mr. Farley:
I guess the measure of article accuracy would be directly proportional to the number of rusbots who respond and rebuke. In which case, I would conclude that you have made a correct assumption.
Congratulations.
from Russia with love
December 15, 2022 at 9:38 am
Dmitry Zorkin
Jim may not know much about Russia, but I definitely know a lot more about Russia than you do. I live in Russia.?
everything you wrote strongly contradicts reality and facts. the facts are that more than 70% of Russian citizens support Putin’s actions. ?♂️ Do you call the government of Russia, whose actions are supported by more than 70% of the population – a fascist dictatorship? I’m afraid to think how then you need to call the regime in the United States whose actions support less than 50%. fascist organizations, such as the Right Sector, Azov, C14, are financed by the government of Ukraine (or rather the United States), but for some reason the fascist government is in Russia. It looks like your world is just turned upside down. I bet you also call the bloody coup in Ukraine in 2014 a “triumph of democracy” and a referendum in Crimea “an act of totalitarian aggression.”
comparing Finland and Ukraine smells strongly of idiocy. “Ukraine got a war because it treated Russia too well” ? Maybe Ukraine got a war with Russia because the US and the EU have been preparing Ukraine for a war with Russia since 2014 and stopped fighting Russia in 2022? Angela Merkel stated this directly in her recent interview. this is no longer an assumption or hypothesis, this is an openly voiced fact.
did you say something about sovereign states? who is it? countries like Estonia or Latvia that are completely financially and militarily dependent on external subsidies? maybe Ukraine is completely supported by the EU and the US? you call this sovereignty? even Germany and France are completely dependent on the US financial system and are nothing more than US colonies. EU governments are ready to destroy their economies for the sake of US attempts to maintain its hegimony.
about NATO as a guarantor of security was especially funny. ? Tell it to Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria or Serbia…
PS
Is your last name Zorkin? not Vlasov or Krasnov? ? But it doesn’t matter. I am pleased to see that such traitors to their homeland as you fell into the millstones of Western Nazism, which does not matter how actively you betray your homeland, the main thing is that you are Russian and therefore an enemy. do you still remember what Nazism is? hatred on a national basis … you are in the same trench with those who hate you for your nationality and you are trying to convince them that you are yours. how funny? and disgusting at the same time.?♂️
Jim
December 15, 2022 at 12:44 pm
I’ll say “almost all men on the street,” is too much.
Serhio comment is more accurate (see below).
“I’ve talked to Russians like you. There are such too. But most Russians, who are minimally interested in politics, consider NATO a threat. But it’s not really that important. The common man has his own problems and worries…”
Much like average Americans’ interest in foreign policy.
Where does a foreign policy get us that says, “‘F’ the Russians”…??
That gets us no where fast… arrogance on steroids.
With that attitude we’re liable to take a header, face first.
Serhio
December 15, 2022 at 9:50 pm
Dmitri Zorkin
“During these 30 years, Russia has been forgiven for almost all sins. The genocide of the Chechen population, the barbaric bombing of Grozny, the invasion of Transnistria, Georgia, the illegal annexation of Crimea. Hybrid Invasion on the Donbass. Wars in Syria, Russian mercenaries in Africa. Maybe it’s enough already to tell these tales about Poor, unfortunate Russia, offended by everyone? For these 30 years, Russia has been given quite a lot of discounts.”
If I remember correctly, the Russians have the expression “horses, people and spare parts mixed up in a heap.” Very similar to your case.
” The genocide of the Chechen population, the barbaric bombing of Grozny”
I understood. It is precisely because of the genocide of Chechens and the barbaric bombing of Grozny that one of the most motivated detachments in Ukraine is Kadyrov’s Chechens, the Spearhead of Putin. Leave these propaganda cliches for fools. In Chechnya, Russia was not at war with the Chechen people and not with Muslims. And with radical Muslim terrorists and Nazis without religion from different countries. And the Chechens have not forgotten that it was the Ukrainian Nazis who very actively participated in the Chechen wars on the side of the Wahhabis. Chechens never forget anything. They are too small a people. If they have no memory, then there will be no people. And now they are taking revenge. But they are not taking revenge on the Russians, but on the Ukrainian Nazis. History sometimes makes very whimsical zigzags. I saw footage from Mariupol on YouTube: when peaceful Ukrainian residents were sitting in the basement. The door opened and “Allah Akbar” was heard. And the Ukrainians said, “Thank God! The Russians have come.” Isn’t that ironic?
” the invasion of Transnistria, Georgia, ”
Russian troops are in Transnistria legally: Agreement on the principles of peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova of 1992. The document was signed by the then Moldovan and Russian leaders Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin.
The Russian peacekeeping contingent in South Ossetia was based on the Sochi Agreement of 1992, as well as the decision of the Joint Control Commission established in accordance with the aforementioned agreement. And even the most stubborn critics of Russia have already recognized that Russia had every right to respond to the aggression of Georgian troops in 2008.
“the illegal annexation of Crimea. ”
The UN recognizes the right of a nation to self-determination. A referendum was held in Crimea . International observers from any interested countries were invited by the Crimean authorities to monitor the legality of the referendum. Only a few journalists from the USA were present. None of the international observers who still came to the referendum recorded violations. No one forced residents to vote at gunpoint. More than 80% chose to join Russia. Are you against democracy?
“Hybrid Invasion on the Donbass. ”
In 1999, NATO bombed Yugoslavia to protect the Kosovo Albanians.
In 2022, Russia is bombing Ukraine to protect Russians in the Donbas.
Putin has not come up with anything new that has never happened before. NATO has opened a Pandora’s box and released problems into the world. Anyone who condemns Putin for Ukraine and does not condemn NATO for Yugoslavia is simply duplicitous and dishonest.
War in Syria,
Russian troops were invited to Syria by the legitimate government of Syria on the basis of an agreement between the countries. Unlike the US troops, who illegally occupied part of the Syrian territory and steal Syrian oil.
“Russian mercenaries in Africa. ”
Russian mercenaries and African countries’ relations concern only Russian mercenaries and African countries, but not Dmitri Zorkin or the governments of any other countries. As well as the relations of American private military companies with other countries. Russian accusations in Africa are all related to the fact that the Russians turned out to be much more competent than the French and the leadership of African countries preferred to refuse the services of French mercenaries. It’s a shame for the French, but it’s not a crime. In any case, mercenaries are not a Russian state, but a private company.