No Blank Check For Ukraine – But It Could be a Wise Investment: In just two and a half weeks, Republicans will take control of the United States House of Representatives – and that could change the aid that Washington sends to Kyiv in its fight against Moscow.
Even before the election, when it looked like there could have been a “red wave,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said there would be increased scrutiny on the aid provided to Ukraine.
“I think Ukraine is very important. I support making sure that we move forward to defeat Russia in that program. But there should be no blank check on anything. We are $31 trillion in debt,” McCarthy told CNBC in October.
“Wouldn’t you want a check and balance in Congress? Wouldn’t you want this hardworking taxpayers’ money, someone overseeing it? We’ve got to eliminate the wasteful spending in Washington,” the soon-to-be-House Speaker added.
Ukraine: Time to Pass the Aid?
It is possible that Democrats who still control Congress until the ball drops in Times Square, could approve the additional $38 billion in aid for Ukraine. The proposed Ukraine assistance would include $21.7 billion for military, intelligence, and other defense support, and $14.5 billion in humanitarian aid to help keep the Ukrainian government functioning.
It would also provide $900 million for health care and support services for Ukrainians living in the U.S. and $626 million for nuclear security support to Ukraine and for modernizing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
The numbers might seem staggering – $38 billion, which is on top of the $68 billion that has already been sent since 2014.
Wasteful Spending or Wise Investment
It is easy to see why some Americans would oppose sending such aid to Ukraine. And with good reason, as there are still many who complain about the cost of the Iraq War – which was about $1.9 trillion, or roughly $6,300 per U.S. citizen. Moreover, the numbers are even greater for the entire Global War on Terror (GWOT), which included the 20-year-long conflict in Afghanistan that only ended last year.
The figure as of September of last year was around $8 trillion according to a study from Brown University.
By contrast, even $100 billion doesn’t look too bad, especially when one considers what the U.S. is actually getting.
As Rick Newman, senior columnist for Yahoo!Finance wrote this week, the roughly $78 billion of aid – sent and proposed this year – would equal about 10% of the Pentagon’s annual budget or just 5% of its funding for 2022 and 2023.
It doesn’t mean that the U.S. military will get less – in fact, for 10% of its budget, it is getting so much more. The Department of Defense (DoD) specifically lists Russia and China as the two most important “pacing challenges” for the United States, as those are the near-peer adversaries that it has to keep up with in terms of military modernization, Newman explained.
Russia may not be the superpower that the Soviet Union was, but it has the world’s fourth-largest defense budget and continues to threaten American interests in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere. The American aid is ensuring that Moscow is weakened for decades.
And without a single U.S. boot on the ground.
“When viewed from a bang-per-buck perspective, U.S. and Western support for Ukraine is an incredibly cost-effective investment,” analyst Timothy Ash wrote last month for the Center for European Policy Analysis. “A Russia continually mired in a war it cannot win is a huge strategic win for the U.S.”
The outcome will likely be better too.
For the roughly $8 trillion that was spent in the GWOT, Washington has very little to show for it. Afghanistan is back under Taliban control – almost as if the 20 years didn’t matter. Iraq has been transformed into a “somewhat democratic” state, but corruption and political violence are now endemic, and it could be argued the country could still see the return of a strongman, albeit one with pro-western leanings.
By contrast, Vladimir Putin has wrecked Russia’s economy and destroyed much of its standing in the world, but more importantly, Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger. More than half of its tanks have been destroyed or captured, the morale of its army is suffering and the country has already wasted trillions of rubles it can’t afford.
Sadly, Ukraine has suffered the most – but there could be a silver lining from the war. The conflict has helped rein in the oligarchs, and when this terrible conflict ends, the country could be better for it. Effective reform and true democracy could be possible. It is almost certain the U.S. and the West will have a grateful friend and potential partner on Russia’s border when the war ends.
Likewise, it has convinced NATO members that they must invest in their own defense.
All that’s worth $100 billion. That’s an investment in America’s future as it also stops Putin’s near-term goals and setbacks Russia for a generation.
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,000 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
