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Putin Can’t Hide One Nightmare Fact: Ukraine Is Winning

U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade fire a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) during a joint live-fire exercise with the Kuwait Land Forces, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Bill Boecker)
U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade fire a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) during a joint live-fire exercise with the Kuwait Land Forces, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Bill Boecker)

The new year came, but the war in Ukraine continues unabated, with two large-scale missile strikes in the closing days of 2022 and the first day of the new year.

In anticipation of further ground offensives when the weather and ground conditions allow it, the Russian military continues to pursue its long-range fires strategy, attacking Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure with ballistic and cruise missiles.  

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Ukraine: The Missile Strikes Continue in 2023

In the absence of successes on the ground, the Russian military has been increasing its pressure on Ukraine with missile strikes against cities and critical infrastructure. So far, this strategy is working. Large parts of Ukraine, and millions of people one without electricity, water, heat, and internet in the middle of the cruel Ukrainian winter.

However, the Russian ballistic and cruise arsenal is depleting fast. On some munitions, the Russian military has expended more than 80 percent of its stocks. The heavy Western sanctions on the Russian defense and aerospace industries have limited the number of munitions that Moscow can produce to replenish its depleting arsenal. But the Kremlin managed to somewhat counter its missile shortage by turning to third countries for assistance. Iran, in particular, has been very helpful, sending thousands of tactical unmanned vehicles to Russia in exchange for much-needed cash and geopolitical support.

The Shahed-136 suicide drone has been a particularly effective weapon system, and the Russian military has used it to attack Ukrainian urban centers and critical infrastructure. In itself, the loitering munition isn’t as deadly as a ballistic or cruise missile.

But the Russian forces use it in such a way that it “floods” the Ukrainian air defenses, and it makes it much harder to identify and intercept the deadlier munitions. Indeed, the Russian military has even been using ballistic missiles with decommissioned nuclear warheads to distract the Ukrainian air defense umbrella.

Success in the Air, Failure on the Ground 

Despite the effectiveness of the Russian missile strikes, on the ground the Russian military continues to fail all across the battlefield in Ukraine.

The latest and more pronounced example of the Russian military failure is the fight for the town of Bakhmut in the south of the Donbas.

Even after throwing and losing thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and other weapon systems against the town of Bakhmut, Moscow has failed to achieve anything significant.

It makes sense that the Russian leadership has changed its approach and is focused most of its energy on missile strikes.

On the morale front, the Ukrainians are also winning. Despite the high cost and misery that comes with the missile strikes, the Ukrainian population remains unperturbed and committed to winning the war.

The privations brought by the lack of energy in the middle of the unforgiving Ukrainian winter aren’t bending the Ukrainian will to fight.

Indeed, the Kremlin might be more effective with its missiles than with its soldiers on the ground, but Kyiv continues to maintain the strategic initiative.

For now, Ukraine is still winning.

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Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. 

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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