A massive strike mission from Russia rained down missiles on civilian targets across Ukraine.
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Explosions were felt from Lviv to Kyiv, including Kharkiv and Odesa, where Russia hit some homes and critical infrastructure supplying electricity and clean water.
The barrage from air and sea-launched cruise missiles occurred on December 29 and knocked out power to residents in cold temperatures.
Some Russian Missiles Got Through to Ukraine
The top general from the Ukrainian military said Russia fired 69 missiles and the defenders shot down 54 of the projectiles. Kyiv defenses knocked out 16 missiles. There were early reports of some people being wounded but no one lost their life. Russia had also launched kamikaze loitering drones during the first parts of the attack.
No Loss of Life But Some Were Wounded
At least three people were injured and are being treated, including a 14-year-old girl, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said, according to the Associated Press. He said the power outages will be a regular occurrence and that power will be going out across the city. Klitschko told his residents to collect water and charge their phones while they can.
Blackout in Lviv and Parts of Kyiv
The mayor of Lviv said that 90 percent of that city had no electricity, and 40 percent of Kyiv had been left without power, according to the BBC.
This Is a Common Occurrence and a Critical Piece of Russian Strategy
The strikes are part of a familiar pattern that happens almost weekly. Russia is clearly aiming to make citizens suffer this winter to knock out power and fresh water. Urban dwellers may have no electricity during the new year. This is a tactic Russia used during their military intervention in Syria before the war in Ukraine – punish residents to break the will of the people and see them surrender along with dividing and exhausting the international coalition that is allied with Kyiv.
How Do the Ukrainians Protect the Entire Country?
Both sides have difficult choices to make. Ukraine has limited numbers of surface-to-air missile systems with a low number of interceptors. They need air defense coverage at the front in eastern Ukraine in the Donbas region but also help to protect the cities. They may have to move SAM systems from the front to cover urban areas. Russia, on the other hand, likely has enough ballistic and cruise missiles to menace Ukraine into January and February, but it could face limitations in the spring. Russia would then have to depend on what their arms industry can produce each month. Russia will also have to rely on Iran to supply the loitering suicide drones.
Russia Has Found Some Success with the Strikes in Ukraine
Russia is showing that they are adept at targeting cities and this bombing campaign has been one of its strengths throughout the war. Missile strikes are regular, coordinated, concentrated, and mostly accurate. The last attack lasted around five hours, so it is evidence that Russia is capable of massive attacks and no city is safe.
Russia May Have More Missiles Than Thought
The occupiers have focused their efforts on manufacturing missiles by hiring more workers and running extra shifts at plants. Russia military expert Michael Kofman wrote on December 28 that “Russia’s stocks and/or missile production capacity appears quite larger than publicly estimated.” They are concentrating on using their supplies of Kh-101 ballistic missiles and Kalibr cruise missiles. Kofman believes they have hundreds of these munitions, but that this supply could dwindle quickly.
Get More SAMs to Ukraine Theater
Ukraine needs more air defense systems as quickly as possible. The Americans are making a Patriot battery available to Ukraine, but it will likely not be operational for months as training of personnel is required to run the system. Allies are also sending new power equipment to replace damaged or destroyed electrical infrastructure.
Russia is expected to continue these attacks as they sense a vulnerability even though Ukrainian air defenses have been steadfast in shooting down incoming Russian missiles. Russia will likely try to attack with missiles and killer drones once a week throughout 2023. So far, despite the hardship, Ukrainian civilians are still holding up during these grim times. They will have to continue to ride it out with grit and determination, which are traits the defenders have exhibited throughout the war.
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Author Expertise and Experience: Serving as 19FortyFive’s Defense and National Security Editor, Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.
