Russia has remained the second largest arms exporting nation for the past 20 years, surpassed only by the United States. The Kremlin will continue to depend on those exports to help subsidize its domestic war machine, and India will likely aid those efforts.
New Delhi has not explicitly condemned Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, largely as it depends on Moscow for military hardware. In just the past five years, Russia supplied India with around $13 billion in arms, while the Indian military has also placed orders for additional weapons and military equipment exceeding $10 billion.
“Russia remains one of the key players on India’s weapons market. In particular, the total value of Russian defense exports to India exceeded $13 billion in the past five years,” Director of the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation Dmitry Shugayev told state-media outlet Tass ahead of this week’s Aero India 2023 Air Show – the largest such aviation event in Europe.
Russia remains an active participant at the biennial air show, which runs in Bangalore from Monday to Friday this week. Moscow will present about 200 types of weapons and military platforms this year – no doubt hoping to find foreign buyers.
India Keeps Buying Russian Arms
Annual Russian exports have remained about $14 to $15 billion, and Reuters reported that Asian customers have expressed interest in a number of platforms – notably the Kremlin’s S-400 “Triumf” air defense system, as well as the Sukhoi Su-30 and Mikoyan MiG-29 jet fighters, helicopters, and drones. India remains the largest potential client for those platforms.
“Despite the unprecedented pressure on India from Western countries led by the United States in connection with Russia’s special operation in Ukraine, it continues to be one of Russia’s main partners in the field of military-technical cooperation,” the Interfax agency also quoted Shugayev as telling reporters.
New Delhi has already expressed interest in acquiring and licensing the Ingla-S man-portable air defense weapon, which could be produced domestically by India. The lightweight platform would be well-suited to operations near India’s contested borders with rivals including China and Pakistan, as it could more readily be deployed to the rugged mountainous terrain than wheeled platforms.
“We are looking forward to the Indian side’s decision on signing the contract on the supply and licensed production of Igla-S man-portable air defense systems,” Deputy Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation Vladimir Drozhzhov, also told state media on Monday.
Closing Window of Opportunity
Russia may feel pressure to ink as many deals with India as possible, as New Delhi is increasing its efforts to become a domestic arms producer. This has included looking to mature markets such as France and the United Kingdom, along with developing markets such as South Korea, to apply some of the ideas pioneered in those markets – and to help decide on core capabilities while focusing efforts on building those in India.
India depends on Russia for nearly 60 percent of its defense equipment, and even before the Kremlin launched its unprovoked war in Ukraine there were doubts about whether Moscow could meet future demands. Last year, the Indian Defense Ministry expressed concerns that it can’t sustain its military through such significant imports – as it now has the world’s second-largest army, fourth-largest air force, and seventh-largest navy.
As a result, India could take a lesson from South Korea, and become an arms-producing nation that then becomes an exporter. Known as ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ or self-reliant India, it would be bad news for Moscow. Without India as its largest customer, it is unlikely Russia will retain that second spot of the world’s largest military exporters.
In fact, the way things are going, by the 2030s, India could even surpass Russia as an arms exporter.
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Author Experience and Expertise:
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
