Democrats think they can run against him and beat him in 2024 all over again: David Axelrod, the political guru who helped guide Barack Obama to the White House, has a new piece in The Atlantic. The piece describes former President Donald Trump’s inescapable influence on the upcoming presidential election – and the two parties’ equally conflicted, yet differing perspectives on Trump.
The Democrats, on one hand, despise Trump, but relish the prospect of Trump earning a third consecutive GOP nomination. Why? Because he is beatable. Because the expected Democratic nominee, incumbent President Joe Biden, has already beaten Trump and is certainly capable of doing so again.
Republicans, on the other hand, love Trump, but fears the prospect of Donald Trump earning a third consecutive GOP nomination. Why? Because he is beatable. Because Biden has beaten Trump and can be expected to do so again. Republicans are appreciating that despite Trump’s cultural relevance and resonant messaging, he is not good at winning elections. Republicans know that a Trump nomination would imperil their ability to win back the White House.
Joe Biden wants to run against Donald Trump
Liberals have long since become completely fixated on Donald Trump. It’s really quite bizarre how thoroughly and how widely liberals loathe Trump, how willingly Donald Trump is assigned blame for everything.
It’s not healthy, it’s not intellectually honest, and it’s not smart.
But if you happen to find yourself running in an election against Donald Trump himself, the comprehensive Trump hate certainly serves a purpose: motivating liberal voters like nothing else. Biden knows this.
That’s why he wants to run against Trump again in 2024. Biden already beat Trump handily, by seven million votes; Biden suspects he can beat Trump again.
The problem, however, is that Biden is already constructing his yet-to-be-announced campaign as a contest against Trump. We know what that will look like. The Battle for the Soul of America II. Biden will dust off the 2020 playbook, play the hits, and it’ll probably work because Donald Trump is his own worst enemy.
But of course, Biden’s gameplan depends on Trump winning another nomination – which is not guaranteed.
Can Biden pull off a win against a younger, less tainted Republican opponent, say Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley?
Joe Biden can win but he’s going to have to come up with some new messaging and he’s going to have to motivate liberals who have been deprived of their most burning, pressing point of motivation: Donald Trump.
Republicans do not want Trump to earn the nomination
Despite nominating Trump twice consecutively, Republicans are wary that Trump will earn a third nomination. The problem with Trump of course is that he struggles to win elections. Most notably Trump lost the 2020 presidential election despite being the incumbent president, something that doesn’t happen all that often. More recently, Trump’s hand-picked endorsees were absolutely destroyed in the 2022 midterms. Accordingly, Republican strategists are wringing their hands at a prospective Trump nomination, saying ‘please God, not again,’ knowing that a Trump nomination more than likely represents a second Biden term.
The wariness over Trump is in large part self-inflicted, too. The brashness and the rudeness and the never-ending lawsuits. Republican voters appreciate Trump’s policies and perspectives – but they’ve grown fatigued with the man himself. They’re ready for somebody new, perhaps someone with the same policies, but without so much baggage. So, counterintuitively, Dems who hate Trump want him nominated; Republicans who love Trump do not want him nominated.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.