The Russian campaign in Ukraine is falling apart.
In January, the Russian forces launched a large-scale offensive all across the Donbas. Their goal was to push back the Ukrainian forces and achieve an operational breakthrough. They have failed. And in the process, they have lost almost 80,000 men killed or wounded.
Over 400 days into the war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian military continues to prepare for its large-scale counter-offensive. Ukrainian officials have suggested that the offensive will take place sometime in the next few weeks—likely at the end of May or the start of June.
Russian Casualties
The Russian forces continue to suffer losses on a daily basis in Ukraine.
The Russian military and Wagner Group private military company have lost a good portion of their best troops. Elite mechanized formations, Spetsnaz special operations units, marines, and VDV paratroopers have all suffered great casualties in what has become the deadliest conventional war on European soil since the end of World War Two.
The Russian forces have managed to largely replenish their losses through a variety of measures, including mobilized reservists and contracted convicts, but the quality of the force has fallen.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Friday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 185,050 Russian troops.
Mud and the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
The Ukrainian military is watching and waiting for the conditions to improve before it launches its large-scale counteroffensive.
Conditions on the ground are still not ideal for large-scale mechanized warfare. The ground continues to be soft after the thawing of the winter snow, and mud makes off-road driving precarious.
“However, Russian online outlets are likely exaggerating the overall impact of mud on Ukrainian forces as part of an information operation aimed at raising Russian morale, and undermining Ukraine’s supporters, in light of an anticipated Ukrainian counter offensive,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
The Russian military and intelligence services have continued to rely on information operations to bolster their narrative and disrupt Ukrainian operations. The Kremlin has used disinformation and misinformation has been used to both cover up humiliating Russian defeats on the ground and to also portray the Ukrainians in a bad light. The information operations are directed at several different audiences, including the Russian people, the Ukrainian public, the West, and pro-Russian countries.
“Surface conditions can be expected to improve in the coming weeks. The threat from mines probably continues to be a more important factor in limiting the combatants’ off-road manoeuvre,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Expert Biography:
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
