The Russian military has started recruiting convicts from Russia’s vast penal colonies to make up for the heavy losses it has been taking in Ukraine.
On day 442 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian forces are getting ready for the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive. Kyiv has indicated that the attack would take place sometime at the end of May or the start of June. The exact time and place remain a mystery, though the Ukrainian forces have increased their attacks against Russian logistical lines in the south of the country.
Russian Casualties
The Russian forces continue to take significant casualties on the ground.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Friday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 197,670 Russian troops, destroyed 308 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 294 attack and transport helicopters, 3,745 tanks, 3,068 artillery pieces, 7,295 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 559 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,996 vehicles and fuel tanks, 312 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,636 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 393 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 970 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
Convicts But with a Twist
As we have covered before, the Russian forces are experiencing severe force generation problems. The high number of casualties dissuades new volunteers, and the Kremlin is hesitant to throw conscripts into the meatgrinder of Ukraine so as not to lose public support for the war.
For months, the Russian Ministry of Defense had successfully outsourced the war to the Wagner Group private military company. Wagner Group mercenaries took over important parts of the battlefield, for example, Bakhmut, and made progress. Today, the Russian forces are in control of most of the town in the Donbas but have failed to capture it completely.
But internal disagreements between the Russian military and the Wanger Group broke their pact. And now, the Russian military is looking for men to fight in the frontlines.
“Since the start of 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has ramped up a scheme to recruit Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine. It is likely that up to 10,000 convicts signed up in April 2023 alone,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent estimate of the war.
For months it was the Wagner Group that was recruiting from Russian prisons with the approval of the Kremlin. But now it looks like the Russian military is so desperate for men that it has taken over the convict recruiting scheme.
“The MoD’s prisoner recruitment campaign is part of a broader, intense effort by the Russian military to bolster its numbers, while attempting to avoid implementing new mandatory mobilisation, which would be very unpopular with the Russian public,” the British Military Intelligence added.
The quality of troops recruited from prisons isn’t the best, as evidence has shown thus far. But the Russian military has such large manpower gaps, but it seems that it doesn’t care if it gets subpar troops.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
