Beginning last December, Russia’s government and media were abuzz with claims of a massive Russian winter offensive. So were Western intelligence sources. As it turned out, either the Russians chose to withhold their striking power or they frittered it away piecemeal along the 1,000-km front. In more recent months, the Ukrainian side is the one hinting at a major looming counteroffensive. But if Ukraine does launch an attack, it is just as unlikely to produce any breakthroughs.
Seeking an American Strategy on Ukraine
In the coming months, this conflict is likely to either sink into an indeterminate stalemate or continue as a war of attrition. Regardless of which way the conflict tilts, however, America’s current policy will not produce a beneficial outcome for the United States. For the good of our national interest and our country itself, Washington must quickly adjust to emerging realities and shape a new strategy that has a reasonable chance of success.
In early February, Ukrainian intelligence warned that Putin was on the verge of launching his winter offensive and was “massing 1,800 tanks, 3,950 armored vehicles, 400 fighter jets and 300 helicopters for the attack.” Yet month after month, Russia attempted no major attacks. Russian armed forces instead applied constant pressure across the 1,000-km front, focusing most efforts on the Soledar-Bakhmut, Vuledar, and Avdiivka fronts.
It is impossible to ascertain at this point what Russia did with the 300,000 troops it mobilized last fall. Perhaps they chose from the outset to bolster the entire frontline, never intending to launch a broad, high-risk attack. Alternatively, the Kremlin may have changed tactics before launching an offensive, calculating it would be better to withhold Russia’s primary striking power and use it for a counter-attack to follow Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring offensive. Based on other actions Russia has taken, such a decision would be militarily plausible.
American military officials privately warn that if Ukraine does launch an offensive this spring or early summer, Kyiv will incur significant risk. According to numerous reports, the United States, Germany, the UK, and Poland have trained more than 30,000 Ukrainian troops in NATO-style offensive operations and have equipped them with a modest amount of modern tanks, artillery, rocket launchers, personnel carriers, and air defense systems.
The danger to Kyiv, however, will come in what happens after their offensive.
Though the frontlines have moved little since last October, both sides have suffered egregious numbers of casualties in static frontline battles, especially in Vuledar, Soledar, and most infamously, in Bakhmut. For almost two months, Ukraine has diverted reserves to Bakhmut that were originally intended for its spring offensive. They have been successful in preventing full Russian capture of the town, but at the cost of weakening Kyiv’s offensive striking power.
Further, learning from its rout in Ukraine’s Kharkiv offensive last September, Russia has now spent many months digging in and building elaborate defensive positions throughout the territory it occupies. Complicating matters, Ukraine will have to launch an offensive with insufficient artillery ammunition, little-to-no air support, and insufficient tactical air defense. The military task facing the Ukraine Armed Forces is as daunting as can be imagined.
Finding a Path to Peace
Any territory Ukraine captures in its offensive will be very expensive in manpower and equipment lost. It has taken the better part of a year for the West to provide the thousands of combat vehicles, millions of rounds of artillery and small arms ammunition, and air defense launchers and rockets. It has likewise taken many months to provide even the limited training it has given the UAF. Once this offensive is completed, it could take another six months to a year to rebuild that level of striking power again, and that assumes the West will be able to provide more than 1,000 additional armored vehicles and millions of rounds of ammo.
Russia has millions more men than Ukraine from which to draw for future mobilizations. Its military industrial complex is well on its way to achieving large-scale wartime production of arms and munitions. Given these conditions, there is no reasonable path in the near or medium term for Ukraine to accomplish its objective: the expulsion of Russian troops from Ukraine’s 1991 borders.
The most likely outcome of Ukraine’s offensive will be an inconclusive stalemate. If the war simply degrades into a conflict of attrition, it could go on for years. Russia’s vastly larger pool of human and physical resources would most likely grind Ukraine down over time. America’s stated policy of giving Ukraine what it needs “for as long as it takes” is not sustainable as a strategy and almost certainly will not produce an outcome beneficial to either the United States or Ukraine. A course correction is therefore required.
Given our actions over the past 14 months, there is no change that would be easy, desirable, or palatable. Unless we want to deepen our failure, however, change is nevertheless compulsory.
It is clear that many in Europe already recognize that Ukraine cannot win the war in a practical time frame at a reasonable cost. Poland and the Baltics appear to be stalwart in their desire to continue all actions to help Ukraine fight Russia, but much of the rest of Europe would likely support a move to find a negotiated settlement. The U.S. should take the diplomatic initiative by first privately conferring with Kyiv and Brussels — as well as Moscow — to begin the process of finding a settlement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is loath to agree to any deal that leaves Ukrainian territory in Russian hands. The reality, however, is that he does not have what it takes to fully force Moscow off his territory. The most realistic choice he faces is between negotiating an end to the fighting that allows Ukraine to hold what it has, or to continue fighting and lose even more ground. That decision is Zelensky’s alone to make, but America also has agency and must look out for its own interests.
What Washington cannot do is continue, possibly for years, to provide thousands of combat vehicles to Ukraine and millions more artillery shells, rockets, and small arms — along with the billions of dollars per month needed to keep Ukraine’s government and economy afloat. Working with all the relevant players, Washington could help them find a deal that ends the war, ends the killing and destruction, and stops the open-ended loss of American resources.
As horrible as it would be for us to accept ending the war on undesirable terms, it would be even worse to ignore reality and continue pursuing an unattainable military objective. The cost for the former is unpleasant. The cost to the latter could be infinitely worse.
MORE: World War III – Where Could It Start?
MORE: A U.S.-China War Over Taiwan Would Be Bloody
A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.
Fishburn
May 2, 2023 at 11:53 am
19fortyfive needs a new writer.
Neil Ross
May 2, 2023 at 12:38 pm
Davis’ rational analysis continues to make so much sense to me, despite obvious errors in some of his predictions on how soon specific military actions would occur. Hey, the only thing that is true about making predictions is that they all will, to some degree, be wrong. Just look at the predictions made by some of the regular commenters on this blog. Time will tell. About the only prediction that has a very high probability of being achieved is that Russia achieve more than what it originally started out with. The pundits on both sides will decide if the cost was justified.
len
May 2, 2023 at 12:47 pm
The war will end when the pockets of Western defense corporations are filled and the politicians in the US, EU and Britain have gotten their grabs. The real reason behind the lack of peace talks to settle the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy apparently likes being played as the West’s chump for fun and profit. Too bad it is at the expense of the Ukrainian people.
Contrary to popular belief. The United States can continue to provide billions more to its NATO proxy war, and continue the fight against Russia for years. Look at the successful gains by the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. The only benefit has been for ‘the Military Industrial Complex’ as an income source. Military objectives are not important.
The West knows that Russia’s biggest problem in their sphere of influence has been NATO all along. Escalation to World War III would be required for Russia to shed NATO. Who’s up for that?
Looks like now is the time to inflate your 101K with defense stocks and short term treasury notes. If you cant beat em, join em!
Neil Ross
May 2, 2023 at 12:56 pm
What is the definition of insanity? Stop reading Davis if you don’t want him on this blog. Just like Trump, he will disappear from the media if you just ignore him. The rest of us will read his unique insights (along with the commenters) and allow it to shape our own thoughts on this conflict, whether or not they may agree or disagree with Davis’ own analyses.
PubliusNaso
May 2, 2023 at 1:39 pm
All Ukraine needs to do is to cut the land bridge to Crimea, at any point. Once they accomplish this, they can go into a defensive posture and grind down the russian army deployed to Ukraine, now cut in half and with severe logistics issues.
Colonel Davis has a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of Russian aims in Ukraine. Russia is an implacable enemy – they will not honor any agreement. They will continue to bomb and attack Ukraine as long as they have the capacity to do so.
Even if Ukraine agrees to all Russian demands and cedes the four provinces claimed by Putin, Russia will continue to attack and subvert Ukraine.
I would urge Colonel Davis to imagine the state of the West and US in particular if Ukraine did not fight, or if they lost in the early stages of the war. At this point, Russians would control the Black Sea and the mouth of the Danube and the cost of propping up the eastern flank of Nato would dwarf whatever cost is of supporting Ukraine right now. How would US look as a global power? I think it would be severely weakened and the web of alliances would be in serious trouble. Any ally and potential ally of the US, from Philippines to India, would lose trust and confidence in the US as a potential ally. China’s position would be very strong as their neighbors would move to accommodate it.
Gary Jacobs
May 2, 2023 at 1:42 pm
LoL, Davis.
Pretending the Russian winter offensive didnt happen is pretty bizzare. It did happen, and it failed miserably.
As usual, Davis is wrong in almost every last word he wrote.
As well, and as previously stated, the vast majority of the combat vehicles we send Ukraine are from our mothball closet that we dont even use anymore such as Hummer, MaxxPro, etc.
The ones we do use like Bradleys, Abrams, etc. are being sent in such small numbers as to mean next to nothing to our forces
The US Army is believed to have 2,500 Abrams in various versions, with an additional 3,700 in storage.
We are sending Ukraine 31 Abrams tanks. We could send them 500 Abrams and not have any issues.
As well, fighting the Russian military is exactly what they were made for in the first place.
Similar number differences exist for the Bradley. 4641 M2 variants of the Bradley have been produced.
We sent Ukraine 109. Again, we could send them 500 and not have it make a bit of difference for our forces.
Back to Russia’s Winter offensive… for people actually paying attention, Russia tried to attack at Vuhledar, and got creamed. Repeatedly.
They tried in Kreminna and Svatove…with not much better results than Vuhledar.
Rinse and repeat in other places as well.
The one place Russia has been making advances is Bakhmut & Soledar. At an extremely high cost in man power.
I have said repeatedly that this looks far more like a rope-a-dope strategy, with Russia helpfully playing the part of dope [with an assist from Daniel Davis].
Russia has been attacking Bakhmut since some time around July/August of 2022.
Wagner began bragging about the area being the only place along the line where Russia was making advances.
Even in September when Ukraine was romping in the north during the Kharkiv breakout, the Russians [mainly Wagner group] refused to give up on the taking of Bakhmut.
After Kherson fell in November, Bakhmut continued to be the one place along the entire line where Russia continued to make some progress. As such, it became more and more of a focus for Russia.
Much of the propaganda for the war revolved around strained claims that because Ukraine hadnt stopped Russia around Bakhmut, it was somehow inevitable for Russia to win the entire war, one 10 meter gain per day.
Now, 9 months after starting, the Russians still havent taken Bakhmut. But they are almost finished completing the plans Ukraine appears to have set up for them 9 months ago.
Yes, this very much looks the part of a Ukrainian plan.
Ukraine has held the line in every other section of the front. But for some reason they have been pushed back at Bakhmut.
It appears the reason Russia has been able to move forward at Bakhmut is because Ukraine wanted to keep Russia’s attention there. So they had to give ground.
They didnt have to give up much, but just a little here and a little there kept the Russians coming back for more ‘success’.
Why do this? When Russian General Surovikin took over the Russian forces last fall, it was clear he was changing the general Russian philosophy regarding the war. He chose to finally remove troops from Kherson in a retreat instead of keeping them there until they collapsed. He started defensive works along the line and stopped a general push everywhere. Surovikin looked like he was going to hunker down for the winter to stem Russian losses and train new troops.
Ukraine would much prefer Russia to continue to make pointless attacks into prepared defenses with horrible Russian losses than to actually get organized and build up strength.
Bakhmut in particular held a couple of attractions for Ukraine:
First, Russia could be drawn in by retreating in this one section of the line.
Second, the Wagner forces were there.
Wagner has been antagonistic with the general Russian army and competes for attention and supplies. Allowing Wagner to push forward at Bakhmut but not let regular Russian army move forward in other places has caused friction within Russian leadership.
I’d put down good money to wager that the reason Surovikin got fired after such a brief tenure was that Wagner was showing him up by still making gains.
Putin probably didn’t want to hear excuses from Surovikin about what the ‘prudent’ military move was when Wagner was showing Putin what could be done if they just put more effort in.
So Surovikin was let go and Gerasimov was put in.
Btw, this is the same Gerasimov who was responsible for much of the optimistic planning at the start of the war around Kyiv. Gerasimov probably convinced Putin that he would continue to attack if put back in charge and could replicate Wagner success on other parts of the line.
And then we got Russian suicide marches into Vuhledar and massive attacks for no gain at Avdiivka and Kreminna.
Not sure how Daniel Davis completely ignores all of those areas of mass Russian casualties due to failed attacks, but just because Davis is clueless doesnt change the reality that they happened.
Meanwhile, Bakhmut kept inching along to keep the Russians coming back for more. Had the Ukrainians held firm at Bakhmut, Wagner would not have been able to brag about their success and goad Gerasimov into making stupid attacks along other parts of the line.
Surovikin would have probably remained and spent the winter preparing with only minor skirmishing and probing.
So for Ukraine to succeed, Bakhmut had to fall, but it had to fall very very slowly to keep the Russians occupied for as long as possible.
Ukraine could not let the Russians get all of Bakhmut too quickly. If they had, there was always the chance Russia might declare success and pack it in for the rest of the winter. And Ukraine couldnt let Russia get too close to Kramatorsk either.
Bakhmut had to fall according to a very strict schedule. And soon we’ll get to see if all that hard work by the Ukrainians has accomplished what it was meant to.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine can take advantage of the situation with their coming counter attack.
That said, Daniel Davis continues to complete misread the situation based on cherry picked information which leads to wildly inaccurate assessments of the situation.
Clearly the Russian winter offensive was tried, and failed. Miserably.
scottfs
May 2, 2023 at 2:02 pm
Surrender at any cost!
The West must decide what to do with Putin and, by extension, Russia. Shall we encourage Russia, or any belligerent, to gobble and take what they want? This writer thinks so.
I reject that. Russia, left unchecked, could launch any number of wars; Ukraine, Moldova, Poland, the Baltic States. Germany. The Central Asia countries. Why not? Should America decide to fight tyranny? Appease it? The latter worked with Hitler, right?
Or should we make the difficult decision to tell the Russia and China, no business as usual. We will FIGHT to maintain order. That includes trade. China needs us more than we need them, ultimately.
I will say one thing; I’d rather support a Ukraine who FIGHTS, in lieu of Iraq or, especially, Afghanistan, whose people don’t want to fight.
Joe
May 2, 2023 at 2:07 pm
Bleed the bear dry.
The US has tens of thousands of combat vehicles that are rusting in surplus. It costs us nothing to pass them to Ukraine. We will never use them.
If we don’t have the ammunition we should, so we should make both enough for us and enough for Ukraine. But most likely we have it. And its becoming superannuated. Let Ukraine throw it out.
Currently Ukraine has fully contained Russia’s strategic mischief. That is a good thing as Russia’s strategic ambition includes far more than just Ukraine.
Russia’s defenses could (likely) collapse with a good shove at Kherson and Zoporizhzhia and maybe even Crimea.
As to Donetsk and Luhansk I think an international settlement might be in order.
Since Ukraine is willing to bleed stopping Russia we should provide the wherewithal, and truly help them along the way. Combat Arms Training, NCO development, Officer development, all the technical schools should have traunches of UAF soldiers passing through them, as well as any and all flight schooling. There is no better way to rest, recover and rebuild units after tours of combat on the front.
It is time to arm Ukraine with F-15 fighter jets and all the A-10 Warthogs they will take. Imagine a late summer armored “thunder run” with close air support and tactical air supremacy.
Bleed the bear dry.
GhostTomahawk
May 2, 2023 at 2:34 pm
Wait..a strategy.. Biden has a strategy? Because at this point all we’re doing is giving money and equipment away while providing them intelligence.
News flash UKRAINE IS LOSING. America has given Ukraine more money in the last 45 days than Russia spends on its military in a year. We arent bleeding RUSSIA. Russia is bleeding us. So when China takes Taiwan our military will be depleted and the population will be sick of bullshyte wars.
Brett
May 2, 2023 at 2:39 pm
Daniel Davis has been consistently incorrect in his assessments of the situation in Ukraine. At every point he has shown that he believes Russia’s victory is inevitable and that Ukraine has no chance of forcing a successful military settlement.
Over 14 months of fighting Russia has lost half of their initial gains.
According to Davis: “The reality, however, is that he does not have what it takes to fully force Moscow off his territory.”
If that is true, give Zelensky and the Ukrainians what they need. It is clear the Russia stands against American interests. They see themselves at war with the Western World and they see America as the leaders. They are working to destroy our alliances and the system of ‘rule of law’ that the U.S. and allies have worked to build.
The United States spent more than $300 Billion annually (1996 dollars) at the height of the cold war – equivalent to more than $500 Billion in today’s dollars. Our primary adversary was the Soviet Union. Russia seems determined to create a new conflict; the $24 Billion in direct aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict has been an affordable cost to contain Russian aggression.
According to Davis: “What Washington cannot do is continue to provide thousands of combat vehicles to Ukraine and millions more artillery shells, rockets, and small arms forever.”
Forever is a weasel word there. Some thousands of vehicles and some millions of discrete units of materiel will be enough to allow Ukraine to dislodge Russia from Ukrainian territory in a reasonable amount of time. More support now may save thousands of Ukrainian lives.
No, Davis wants to see the U.S. limit support to Ukraine so he can continue to make the spurious claim that he is a defense expert. Every prediction he has made in this conflict is incorrect. Russia may be a larger country in terms of population and resources, but there are limits to how many people Russia can impress into the military while maintaining a functioning society and a defense industry. Since Ukraine is receiving support from the west, this conflict is more equal than Davis is willing to admit, and the ‘fundamentals’ may favor Ukraine if he was willing to do a serious analysis.
Of course, in a few weeks (after an unusually wet spring) we’re likely to see the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts. I’ve read enough of Davis’s articles that I know he won’t print a retraction (or even reconsider his original conclusion). I expect they are going to be far more significant than Davis realizes. Keep in mind he didn’t think Ukraine could reclaim the regional capitol of Kherson without 3 miracles in a row. His assessment of what is ‘possible’ or even ‘realistic’ has been suspect.
The one thing I must call out specifically in this article is his ‘sleight of hand’ regarding the Russian offensive. He implies it didn’t happen – that Russia readied assault units and have them reserved for a counter-counter-offensive after Ukraine launches their counter offensive this spring/summer. That is false. We have seen the allocation of mobilized soldiers to reconstitute Russian units over and over again. If you want to know what happened to the Russian offensive, look to the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade in Vuhledar. There’s no mystery where the 300,000 mobilized soldiers are; many of them are corpses still strewn across the fields of Southern Ukraine.
403Forbidden
May 2, 2023 at 2:45 pm
What Biden needs is a really dingsbum decision to change the tempo and direction of the ukro proxy war.
One way the brilliant democrat president could accomplish that is by giving kviv’s increasingly truimphant neo-nazis a couple of f-16s loaded with a b61 each.
Once the neo-nazis hit Crimea with those US-made stuff, Biden surely will go on to win 2024 hands down.
As far as Crimea is concerned, well, the world bank, the IMF, the EU and xi jinping could pitch in by contributing zillions for its rebuilding.
Per Fossan-waage
May 2, 2023 at 2:48 pm
I strongly disagree with the writer. (But I agree with the commentator Fishburn ????????). Mr Davis does not take into account the fact that the Ukrainians are far more motivated, while the Russians are not. Further, Davis has to get his facts straight; he wonders why the Russians have not not used the 300,000 mobilized soldiers better. Well, a great number of them have been casualties since Dec 2022 (ref recent news reports). And supporting Ukraine will be a small price to pay when you consider how Russia – an enemy of the Western world – is being weakened. Mr Davis appears to be a defaitist.
Tamerlane
May 2, 2023 at 3:18 pm
It’s wonderful to see a coherent cogent voice of reason like LTC Davis (ret) on 1945. Few of the other writers take into account reality, let alone American strategic interests. The author should publish more!
Sofronie the Monk
May 2, 2023 at 3:30 pm
“What Washington cannot do is continue, possibly for years, to provide thousands of combat vehicles to Ukraine and millions more artillery shells, rockets, and small arms — along with the billions of dollars per month needed to keep Ukraine’s government and economy afloat.”
Then it’s very likely they’ll have to come up with way more than that to keep the Baltics, Poland and Romania afloat. Unless… unless you mean that Article 5 is not worth it and the US should retreat in its safe bubble, leaving Russia and China to run amok. Are you, Dan?
jeff
May 2, 2023 at 3:38 pm
Well thought out and presented. This opinion is a good roadmap for Biden to follow but we know he is living in a made-up reality and will not encourage Ukraine to sue for peace.
Christophe
May 2, 2023 at 4:19 pm
Daniel Davis, the voice of defeatism and betrayal.
Putin does not want peace, he wants to destroy Ukraine.
Providing weapons to Ukraine is not a matter of strategy, it is a matter of preventing a genocide.
No doubt Daniel Davis would have advocated a ‘balanced peace agreement’ between Nazis and Jews in the 30s…
Ramon
May 2, 2023 at 4:53 pm
If 100,000 Russian forces were able to take a mostly untrenched fifth of the Ukraine area, then I simply cannot see 60,000 hastily trained Ukrainian forces, how brave they may be, take back all of that.
If they would reach the sea of Azov, they would look around just to see that the front line even extended more compared to now, and they would find themselves in a self created saillant. (They cannot attack too thinly spread nor too concentrated, hence a saillant would occur some 15-20 miles wide)
What happens next? What Gary says, a starving of the Crimea region? Can’t see it happen so easily.
Duane
May 2, 2023 at 5:04 pm
Predicting outcomes is not helpful or likely to turn out correct.
What Ukraine accomplishes with their promised spring offensive may turn out to be just as ineffective as Russia’s claimed winter offensive … or not. Russia could suddenly collapse. Wagner, which supplied a very large proportion of the claimed 300 thousand man mobilization (somehow that number just sounds very unlikely to be the truth), has basically failed and evaporated, according to its chairman, Prighozin, a rival of Putin’s. He says Wagber will disappear completely within a very short while.
So where else will Russia get all those warm bodies to continue to make war against Ukraine? Not to mention replenish his munitions.
On the other hand, Ukraine could launch their planned offensive, but it appears now that Russian forces are digging in with massive trench formations along the front.
Is any of this starting to resemble the Great War of 1914-18, that consisted largely of horrendously bloody static trench warfare and claimed offensives that fizzled out to even larger losses of life … only to result in Russia suffering a revolution, and Germany seeing their Kaiser abdicate and the German forces agreeing to a withdrawal? And where even the victorious western allies were so stunned by the carnage that they spent the next 20 years in denial of actual military threats arising from Nazi Germany because they did not want another WW I. In reality, there were no winners, only losers, in that war.
I don’t see where it is in anybody’s interests, including the US, to see another WW I scenario involving Ukraine and Russia, and the possibility of expanding further.
I don’t know what it will take to get Putin to back down and withdraw from his Greater Russia fiasco. Maybe it will take a coup or an assassination, or maybe he succumbs to his long reported cancer … or something else. Certainly Ukraine is not going to let Russia win.
But at what cost?
Maybe a group of nations, including the US, China and NATO members and others can get together and see if sense can be talked into Putin to end this war and withdraw his forces from Ukraine, and call it a victory if he wants to (by teaching all those claimed neo-Nazis a lesson they won’t soon forget!) that lets him save a little face.
Gary Jacobs
May 2, 2023 at 6:09 pm
Tamerlane,
LoL…you pretending Davis is anything close to coherent makes a lot of sense.
Both of you like to simply invent your own fantasy world that ignores inconvenient facts that dont fit your faux notion of smarts.
As if there isnt an endless stream of geolocated footage from Vuhledar and other areas showing the Russians trying and failing miserably to advance.
Spoiler alert: there’s actually massive amounts of such footage.
There are also plenty of 1st hand accounts from Russians themselves complaining about how stupid the tactics are, and they are tired of seeing their comrades sent to their deaths.
But hey, if you have found a roommate for your fantasy world, congrats… perhaps the two of you can get a private room and spare the rest of us the absurdity you spew so often.
Jim
May 2, 2023 at 6:44 pm
We will see what happens.
Still a lot of “tough guy” comments on the board… you know, “whatever to takes,” and so on.
Ukraine has one offensive left in the can.
How do they use it?
Defeat will start serious talk about a settlement.
Sadly, not until then.
There’re still a lot of boastful shouts down from the ramparts towards the besieging enemy, but the days are getting numbered… as the days get longer.
Gary Jacobs
May 2, 2023 at 7:24 pm
Jim,
LoL, Ukraine only having one offensive in them is only one of numerous possibilities. And the least likely one at that.
If there’s anything the Russian military has demonstrated in Ukraine, it’s that they are capable of unexpectedly large, unexpectedly rapid defeat.
And Russia’s situation is only getting worse.
While Russia isn’t likely to be forced completely out of Ukraine in this counteroffensive…unless Ukraine sustains massive casualties there will be another offensive.
And since Ukraine actually values the lives of their soldiers, they will not use the waste-of-human-life tactics the Russians use.
OR…Russia could simply end it’s naked imperialist aggression and go home. Then there will be peace very quickly.
from Russia with love
May 2, 2023 at 7:37 pm
amazing comments!
Prigozhin turns out to be Putin’s enemy! ha ha ha 🙂 and Wagner will be over soon! :))) apparently these amazing revelations are from the same source from which there were statements that “Russia has run out of missiles” and “the Russian army does not have a winter uniform.” :))) I also really liked the version about the fact that the United States uses Zelensky. oh guys! Zelensky for the year of this war has become a billionaire from a millionaire! about China and the United States, which together will force Putin to leave is also very funny. 🙂 is this China that is on the verge of a direct military clash with the United States? the China to which the United States threatens the use of military force and imposes some idiotic conditions about what China should do on its territory, in Taiwan? this China should, together with the United States, force Russia to do something? Russia, which is now the main economic and military partner for China? Are you seriously? entertained me in the evening. 🙂 I have an alternative for you. 😉 the SCO and BRICS countries, as well as the rest of the countries of the Asian, African, South American and Middle Eastern regions, that is, 85% of the world’s population, gather together and push the US, the EU and the rest of the neo-colonial rabble (15%), which calls itself “the whole world” where this “whole world” should have gone – in the ass. :)))
Daniel Davis is relatively sane, but even he is afraid to face the truth. Russia will achieve its goals in Ukraine. These goals were announced in 2022. it is the denazification of Ukraine and the demilitarization of Ukraine. no North and South Korea scenarios, no land swaps, no territorial concessions. all these are empty fantasies of stupid Western experts stuck in a virtual world they invented by themselves. only the destruction of the puppet fascist regime and the complete withdrawal of the West from Ukraine. BUT! this is what concerns Ukraine. Let me remind you about the demand to return NATO to the 1993 borders. 😉
especially for optimists like Gary Jacobs, who harbor naive hopes for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring, I advise you to think about how Ukraine will drag these tanks and infantry fighting vehicles to the front line? Russia completely dominates in artillery and aviation. the entire front line is under constant video surveillance to a depth of 50 km. how will these tanks reach the front line if even in Pvlograd the train with these tanks is smashed to dust along with the railway junction?
and yes, especially for Gary Jacobs, let me remind you that since the beginning of this year, Ukraine has only retreated and is constantly losing territory. trying to prevent the advance of the Russian army and clinging to every piece of land, Zelensky is forced to constantly throw fresh meat to the front and suffer enormous losses in manpower and armor. do you like the carbonic direction so much? this is understandable, by the fact that in all other directions the territorial losses of Ukraine are noticeable and significant. 😉 but is Ukraine doing so well in Vugledar? This is a small town that is under constant shelling. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to constantly bring fresh troops there and take away the dead and wounded from there. do not believe? Let me remind you of an interview with a Ukrainian military man from Artemivsk. “the duration of the existence of a company of soldiers in Bakhmut is 4 days.” the same in Ugledar. if Ukraine stops this conveyor of death, then the Russians will quickly bring the number of Ukrainians in the fortified area to a minimum and occupy the city. mountains of corpses of Ukrainian Nazis, this is all Zelensky can slow down the advance of the Russian army. 😉 not to stop, but only to slow down. but Russia is satisfied with such tactics of Ukraine. Do you remember about the first purpose of the special operation – the denazification of Ukraine? Zelensky is helping to fulfill it. 🙂
Gary Jacobs
May 2, 2023 at 8:10 pm
From Russia with Fraud.
LoL, Russia went from firing 80-100 missiles every week or so, to 18ish missiles every 6 weeks or so.
The latest salvo included Kh101 missiles. 15 of which were shot down. They cost $13 Million each.
I’m no math genius but those numbers are not looking good for Russia on any level. And one of the Missiles that did hit took out an old storage facility that house decommissioned missiles.
It made a big bang, but had Zero actual current military value.
Kind of like all the apartment buildings russia has been launching missiles at quite far from the front.
I could go on for days dissecting the rest of your BS, but you put me past my quota for BS tolerance in a day.
TheDon
May 2, 2023 at 8:10 pm
I think all is needed is some support and better equipment to take out the new fighters, especially carried ones.
One that target is fun to eliminate its a ground only fight which Ukranians are proud to die for, but not Russians.
Work on destroying the new air game.
Then send scared russians out of crimea.
Embarrass Putin.
Webej
May 2, 2023 at 11:34 pm
» Working with all the relevant players, Washington could help them find a deal «
You’ve got to be kidding. Nobody believes anything Washington says. Nobody trusts any commitment or statement. They’ve made it abundantly clear that they do not believe in diplomacy (sending political partisan hacks with no professional diplomatic credentials who need a sinecure). They’ve trodden international law with their feet. Everything is devious scheming. They cannot possibly play a part in any deal or configuration.
The only part they could possibly play is to back out and go home Yankee.
Nicholas Brown
May 2, 2023 at 11:52 pm
How many times are you gonna write the same article?
Paul
May 3, 2023 at 1:25 am
@From Russia with love
How are you doing, still hanging in there? See you are still posting long absurd comments with lots of smileys about Russian successes. Are those smileys starting to get a bit stale? When you started commenting a year ago you probably believed in your own words and imagined you were going to have a laugh and teach us westerners a lesson or two. Maybe also opening our eyes to the truth. After all, you had access to real and hard facts from Russian television didn’t you. And there you found credible information that made you feel pride as a Russian and confident on victory. And then you decided to share your newfound wisdom with us decadent and stupid westerners.
Like April 11th last year
when you in a cocky tone told Mike that Russia is merely fighting a limited special operation, not a full war, only a lesser part of the western military district was involved, and besides, they were in the process of destroying the combat ready parts of AFU. Also, Russia already controlled 30% of Ukraine. The same day you explained to Jacksonian Libertarian that he was wrong, Ukrainian forces would in fact not be able to stop the forthcoming Russian full-scale spring offensive. The only hope for the survival of the Ukrainian army was to surrender.
Now a year later, and after the first of probably several mobilizations, do you still believe that only a fraction of the Russian army is involved? Do you believe that the cream of Ukrainian army was destroyed a year ago? And the Russian full-scale offensive last spring, how did that go? Now Russian control of Ukraine is down to 17%.
Then May 6th
You sarcastically responded to “h” who mentioned Russian losses. You were so kind to explain him about reality, you told him that he should not listen to Ukrainian propaganda, the claimed Russian losses could not be confirmed by reality. You backed this up by stating that Ukraine is fully mobilized and throwing untrained newly recruited soldiers to the front, while Russia on the other hand had a professional army doing the fighting, besides Russia had no need of a mobilization. Your grand finale was a sarcastic statement about Ukraine begging for weapons, while proud and strong Russia “does not apply for military assistance”
Boy, your comments did not age well, did they? Recently, independent site oryxspioenkop who document Russian equipment losses reached 10.000 photo documented Russian losses, among those there is more than 1.900 tanks. Go and look for yourself, there is a photo for every single one of them. And how about that comment about untrained Ukrainians thrown to the front while Russia fighting with a professional army, the table have really turned on that one. Now that your “professional” Russian army is mostly to be found in graveyards and hospitals around Russia, while the first wave of hastily mobilized and untrained Russians is quickly following their lead. If they read your comment about Russia not applying for military assistance in Iran or North Korea, they would laugh their asses off. Putin is begging them for crappy drones, artillery ammunition etc. So now in the light of the development since your comments from May 6th last year, how would you rate the realism of your comments?
Then May 11th
You again in your sarcastic tone responds to CK who previously said Russia would have to mobilize troops: “oh yes, I almost forgot! where is the mobilization? you yelled about mobilization two weeks ago. your media immediately promised a field of holidays… where?!?”
Have you heard about the mobilization now? And how many mobilizations do you think there is going to be before Putin finally gets pushed out of a hospital window? Surely you must realize by now that there is going to be more of them.
Then May 29th
You again made a fool of yourself, berating other commenters while sharing your wisdom. You pointed out the high production capacity of Caliber and Iskander rockets so Russia would not run out of them. And you talked about a failed Ukrainian attack over a river to take Kherson. You explained that such an attack would be impossible without complete control of the airspace. Now we all know how the Russian terror campaign against Ukrainian power infrastructure using the “limitless” supply of rockets worked out don’t we? It failed, Russia run out of rockets and the Ukrainian power infrastructure is completely rebuilt. And has the news reached you about Ukrainian capture of Kherson yet? Does this mean Ukraine have total control of airspace or just that you have been gobbling up a little too much of Solovyov’s BS?
I bet a year ago you didn’t think that one year on, you would still be defending Russia and explaining to us how Russia is really crushing Ukraine and is about to win the war. Your smile must be getting more and more stale as reality slowly reveal itself to you and sad messages from the front trickles in.
I could go on and on about your previous comments that even the massive Russian propaganda effort cannot hide is just plainly wrong. Surely by now you must wonder why you always ends up embarrassing yourself when you relay “information” you pick up on Russian TV and other propaganda outlets. And why is it that your opponents in here always ends up being right?
I’ll give you a clue, official Russian news are feeding you poison and lulling you into a fake reality, it’s like the blue pill in Matrix. But the fake matrix about Russian success and greatness that is so comforting to you, is cracking, and you see it every time your fake bobble meets reality. You should consider the red pill, turn off BS Russian TV and read some independent Russian news outlets instead.
Mario
May 3, 2023 at 2:13 am
“Russia has millions more men than Ukraine from which to draw for future mobilizations”. Bad premise!!! Ukraine is at war, russia is in the middle of a “special military operation”. Russians can’t launch a full mobilization without explain the reality of the WAR of aggression with Ukraine.
Besides, if Russia has not managed to equip just 300,000 men, how could it do it with, say, 300,000 more? With T34’s and Mosin Nagant rifles?
As usual DD with its ill based analisys… Nothing new.
Walker
May 3, 2023 at 6:06 am
Russia failed their winter offensive, so Ukraine will be unlikely to make any headway with its Spring offensive. Yep, Davis logic.
Ukraine knows that its Spring offensive must make headway if it wants to continue to receive weapons from the West. They have admitted it publically. They know.
So what is Davis even talking about? If he is right, Ukraine offensive is a dud and no more weapons. In this case Ukraine will have to negotiate. They don’t want to, so they know what they need to do. I would bet on Ukraine over Davis any day.
Then we have Neil… the only prediction likely to come out is that Russia achieve more than it started out for….
I broke out laughing, Neil. You should be a stand up comedian. But seriously though. What was it you think Russia planned to achieve in Ukraine?
Walker
May 3, 2023 at 7:18 am
One point that Davis has misconstrued so badly that I may as well call it a lie. Davis says that Ukraine has been moving resources to Bakhmut that were planned for the spring offensive. Now, that itself isn’t completely wrong. They have been using more resources there than they would like. But it makes sense for two reasons. One it is imperative to keep Russia from getting its victory day win. That however wouldn’t be enough without the second reason that Russia is cutting off all its appendages to meet this. Why I am calling Davis in this when he is technically correct, it is the implications he is making from this. Of course they are using way more resources in Bakhmut than they would like. And of course those resources if not used there would go to the spring offensive. That is how Davis gets away with it. But his inference is that they dont have anything left. We know this isn’t true. Ukraine has stated they have built complete new units of over 80,000 men and western equipment for the spring offensive. This doesn’t ensure any success, but it doesn’t show that Ukraine hasn’t used it all up in Bakhmut as Davis clearly implies.
Fred Leander
May 3, 2023 at 8:19 am
Wise words but unfortunately unrealistic as those making the US decisions lose nothing in the present situation – on the contrary. The regular American is the one that shall have to pay for the extravagant US policy.
Pavel
May 3, 2023 at 12:54 pm
It will end up with no problems for pension funds, just as there will be no funds themselves …
Neil Ross
May 3, 2023 at 1:17 pm
I will tempt fate and will make two further predictions.
The first being that nothing will happen at the negotiation table until there is a substantial and sustained victory by either side on the battlefield.
The second prediction will be that Davis’ articles will continue to attract intelligent comments on both sides of his arguments. A much better read than most of what is presented on both sides of the conflict.
With that said…
Neil Ross
May 3, 2023 at 1:42 pm
I admit that Walker was correct and that I was wrong when I said Russia will end up achieving all of the stated goals it held at the beginning of the invasion.
As a refresher, I have included an annotated version of the original 15-point peace deal below. Point 14 will clearly not be achieved as Finland has since become a member of NATO. The rest of the Points will likely, in the end, be achieved by Russia unless there is a substantial and sustained counteroffensive by the UAF.
I do not condone Russia’s invasive but simply understand why the Russian state would feel threatened by having NATO troops within such close proximity to its capital and its military and naval bases. At the same time, I also understand the desire by a few of the NATO member states to take this rare proxy opportunity to bloody the bear since they themselves are too chicken sh*t to fight the war directly.
I sure am curious what the regular commenters on this site think would be the major sticking points would be with this list. Surely it can’t all be about getting Russian troops out of Crimea.
I believe though that the majority of NATO member States would have preferred a negotiated agreement right from the start. NATO is not and has never been a democracy and has always been a geo-political tool of a limited number of its members.
1. Ukraine will amend its constitution to become permanently neutral. In return, Russia will recognize the legitimacy of the current government of Ukraine and renounce any intention to replace current Ukrainian government leaders with ones more amenable to Moscow.
2. Ukraine recognizes Russia’s 2014 reunification with Crimea and renounces all intentions to recover it by force or otherwise.
3. Russia will withdraw all of its military forces to their pre-invasion positions, including from the Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts but except for the Donbass region where the new line of control between Russia and Ukraine will be revised to the line of control as it exists at the execution of this agreement.
4. A popular referendum will be held by September 2022 for the entire Donbass region, including both the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, on whether their citizens wish to become independent or return to Ukrainian control.
5. Russia will support Ukraine’s application to join the European Union.
6. Ukraine will permanently suspend all NATO ties, including military trainers, exchanges, and joint military exercises, along with all NATO arms shipments except for small arms.
7. Ukraine will reduce its ground forces to no more than 150,000 active-duty troops and a maximum of 100,000 troops in reserve.
8. 8. Ukraine agrees to destroy all of its “strike systems” under Russian supervision. Furthermore, Ukraine shall be prohibited from developing weapons of mass destruction including nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, and shall shut down all twenty-six of its U.S.-funded biological research labs within six months of the signing of this agreement and allow Russian inspectors to access the labs to ensure that they are closed.
9. All prisoners of war, refugees, and any civilians in captivity will be returned to their respective countries with their treatment and care governed by the provisions of the Geneva Convention.
10. There will be no reparations issued by either side and no international war crimes tribunals.
11. The United States and European Union will agree to provide large-scale economic aid to assist in the process of Ukraine’s reconstruction.
12. Full diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between Russia and all NATO countries, will be restored following the signing of this agreement.
13. Upon the execution of this peace agreement by both parties, all post-invasion economic sanctions placed against Russia shall be immediately rescinded and any public and private Russian financial and economic assets that were seized will be returned to their owners.
14. The United States and NATO shall issue written guarantees that NATO will never expand eastward into additional former Soviet republics or along Russia’s borders (i.e. Finland). In exchange for these guarantees, Russia will acquiesce to Sweden’s ascension into NATO as well as that of any other European country that does not border Russia and wishes to join the alliance.
15. Russia and NATO agree to commence discussions to include Russia in the security architecture of Europe, renew the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and negotiate a follow-on agreement to the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty.
wesley bruce
May 3, 2023 at 10:20 pm
The simple explanation is that Russia never succeeded in raising 300000 troop. Some of them are tied up blocking, executing, and fighting other Russian troops. Their vehicle numbers are lies passing up though the chain of command to Putin. No one can tell Putin the truth and live, so no one tries. The Russian Nuclear weapons don’t work, poor maintenance. Ukraine is hitting rallying areas and ammo dumps killing off attacks before they start. Russian are driving into Ukraine’s strategy of dig in and ambush. Fighting retreat and layered defenses. Something that, for some reason, is never taught at West Point.
Likewise the Ukrainian coming counter offensive will be a trap or set of traps.
The only real change need is that the US needs to supply Ukraine with the cruise missile parts so that Ukraine can hit Putin, his generals & the Kremlin day after day until he’s gone or is commanding an empty room. In any subsequent Russian civil war the less crazy guy will win.
If Trump was President it would be over by now with Ukraine victorious, assuming it ever would have started. Something’s it take a Democrat to start WW3 with an ex superpower whos botched war maintenance, including nukes.
HAT451
May 3, 2023 at 11:03 pm
There is a third option, of what happened to soldiers that were mobilized in November 2022. They have become a strategic reserve for Russia should NATO send, expand their support of Ukraine from military advisors and logistics support to combat units, such as armor or mech infantry brigades.
dave
May 4, 2023 at 4:46 am
Amazing the amount of brainwahed bone heads that think Ukraine could ever win, LOL! It was over on day 1. It gets more obvious every day, and still the idiots believe, LOL!
from Russia with love
May 4, 2023 at 6:52 am
@Paul
“I bet a year ago you didn’t think that one year on, you would still be defending Russia and explaining to us how Russia is really crushing Ukraine and is about to win the war.”
hoped. until the end of March last year. the West had a chance to end with little bloodshed by fulfilling Russia’s demands. all last year and this year I wrote here, like you, that Russia has nowhere to rush and NWO can continue indefinitely.
local analysts, and you personally, came up with the myth that Russia is going to capture something. every time when Russia does not do what you came up with, you joyfully shout that Russia’s plans have collapsed. this is very funny. 🙂 for example, a story about the spring offensive of the Russian army. unlike your Zelensky doll, the Russian Defense Ministry has never announced a spring offensive. oh, you just confused the Russian Defense Ministry with Zelensky? 🙂
“I’ll give you a clue, official Russian news are feeding you poison and lulling you into a fake reality, it’s like the blue pill in Matrix.” olo!!! boy!!! I live in Russia and I see with my own eyes how things are in Russia. not from the Internet or the media, right here, I see it myself. but I insist that you continue to eat the blue pills that your media gives you! you make me laugh a lot 🙂
precisely because I live in Russia and see for myself what is happening here, your comments look especially stupid and funny 🙂 you read some bullshit on the Internet and you demand from me that I believe in this bullshit, despite the fact that this is bullshit completely contrary to reality? ha ha ha 🙂
from Russia with love
May 4, 2023 at 8:08 am
@Neil Ross
“I admit that Walker was correct and that I was wrong when I said Russia will end up achieving all of the stated goals it held at the beginning of the invasion.”
goals can be achieved after the end of the event. SVO continues and how long it will continue is not known. maybe another year, maybe 3. Russia’s goals are officially announced, the demilitarization of Ukraine and the denazification of Ukraine. when the hostilities end, it will be possible to say who and what goals have been achieved.
about your plan…
1) impossible due to the second goal of the Russian special operation. if it had been possible, it would have ended in March last year.
2) impossible. read paragraph 1.
3) is not feasible due to the impossibility of fulfilling paragraphs 1 and 2.
4) referendums were held back in 2014. the results are known. The retribution of the junta that seized Ukraine in 2014 is also known. impossible.
5) impossible. this point was the reason for the overthrow of the legitimately elected president of Ukraine with the support of the West and the beginning of the conflict.
6) impossible. remember the history of the Minsk agreements.
7) is not feasible. for the same reason why point 6 is not fulfilled.
8) is impossible. we read paragraph 6 and we can refer to the implementation by the Western countries of the grain deal for which they have not fulfilled the stated conditions. It is possible only with the complete transfer of the territory of Ukraine under the control of the Russian army, but this is also not feasible through peaceful negotiations. read point 2.
9) is not feasible and has never been implemented by Ukraine.
10) LOL 🙂 Impossible. because this is the main purpose of Western investments in this conflict. 😉
11) is not feasible. non-refundable loans for a ruined country that was a financial black hole even before the war? and all this on the verge of a financial crisis? great idea! 🙂
12) is impossible. NATO openly calls Russia its main threat and openly conducts hostilities against Russia. if instead of your agreement there will be an act of unconditional surrender to NATO, then it is possible.
13) is impossible. Let me remind you about the Minsk agreements and the grain deal. agreements with Western politicians are not worth the paper they are written on.
14) is impossible. relevant only after NATO returns to the borders of 1993, but this is not feasible with a peace treaty.
15) is impossible. you are no longer dealing with Gorbachev. 😉 Russian proposals for these treaties have already been ignored by NATO and the United States. without taking into account the interests of Russia, Russia will not sign this treaty; taking into account the interests of Russia, this treaty will not be signed by the West. and yes, points 6, 7 and 13 have not gone away.
result: nothing, except for point 12, under special, impracticable, conditions, from your peaceful ideas can not be translated into reality. Now on the agenda is only an act of unconditional surrender. and judging by the way things are going, there will be a German again in the role of Alfred Jodl. 😉
from Russia with love
May 4, 2023 at 12:56 pm
@Paul
“How are you doing, still hanging in there?”
we are doing better here in Russia than under 21. 😉 inflation 3.5%. what about you? 5%? hold on! you still need to survive Biden’s second term …. if possible. 🙂
“See you are still posting long absurd comments with lots of smileys about Russian successes. Are those smileys starting to get a bit stale?”
as long as there are people like you, emoticons will never become obsolete! 🙂
“Also, Russia already controlled 30% of Ukraine.”; “Now Russian control of Ukraine is down to 17%.”
why so stupid to lie? 😉 at the peak, Russia controlled 27%, now it controls 20%, and since the beginning of the year it has only expanded its control over the territory. 😉 You heard about the Ukrainian counteroffensive? a counteroffensive is carried out in response to an offensive. that is, the fact that Russia is now conducting an offensive is a generally recognized fact. as well as the fact that Russia has only moved forward this year, while Ukraine has only retreated with heavy losses.
“Recently, independent site oryxspioenkop who documented Russian equipment losses reached 10.000 photo documented Russian losses, among those there is more than 1.900 tanks.”
independent resource? LOL 🙂 there any Soviet-style armor is called Russian and even completely destroyed by an explosion of ammunition. how much Ukrainian armor is there that was called Russian and how many takes taken at a different time and from a different angle – God only knows. referring to this “independent resource” is the same as writing “I’m a fool! I’ll prove it now.” 😉
“Now that your “professional” Russian army is mostly to be found in graveyards and hospitals around Russia, while the first wave of hastily mobilized and untrained Russians is quickly following their lead.”
wet Ukrainian dreams. 🙂 but if you believe in it, then who is the heroic Ukrainian army fighting against? mobilization is constantly going on in Ukraine. people are grabbed on the streets and delivered to Artemovsk within 3-5. Will you provide a video of forced mobilization or will you find it yourself? but then they come back! if it works out. dead in cemeteries. I have already shown a video of constantly growing Ukrainian cemeteries here. so who killed all these Ukrainian heroes if you and your Internet experts have already killed the entire Russian contingent twice on the Internet? 🙂
“Putin is begging them for crappy drones, artillery ammunition etc.”
LOL 🙂 Western media came up with this fake, Paul repeated it and now it should be considered true? No, Paul, that’s not how it works. Russia did not ask anyone for ammunition. in Russia in 2022, 3.5 millinoa of 152mm shells were produced. 5 million 152mm shells are planned for 2023. and it’s only 152mm. why do we need to ask someone for something if we ourselves produce everything we need? UAVs “Geran” are also produced in Russia. 😉 flew to Kyiv yesterday.
“Oh yes, I almost forgot! where is the mobilization? you yelled about mobilization two weeks ago. your media immediately promised a field of holidays… where?!?” Have you heard about the mobilization now?”
I will answer you with my sarcastic tone that I wrote this to an idiot who lied about the fact that mobilization was underway in Russia back in May. 😉 are you with this idiot? 🙂 or you don’t know the difference between May and September? spring.. autumn.. no? didn’t hear? 🙂
“Now we all know how the Russian terror campaign against Ukrainian power infrastructure using the “limitless” supply of rockets worked out don’t we? It failed, Russia run out of rockets and the Ukrainian power infrastructure is completely rebuilt.”
when you try to ignore inconvenient facts, you often find yourself in a very stupid position;) Russia has changed targets and is now destroying Ukrainian troop concentrations and ammunition depots. still methodically delivering massive blows every 2 weeks. last week, for example, a large shipment of ammunition was destroyed along with the railway junction in Pavlograd. I posted a video here. Very beautiful! 😉 almost like a nuclear explosion.
from Russia with love
May 4, 2023 at 1:32 pm
@Walker
“One it is imperative to keep Russia from getting its victory day win.”
LOL! 🙂 for whom is it important? for walker? for Zelensky? in Russia, they don’t give a damn when exactly Artemovsk will fall, because behind it there are other settlements in which the same thing will happen. Zelensky will continue to drive his Nazis under Russian shells, and this suits Russia. I have a feeling that the Americans’ brains are skewed on the topic of symbolism. what difference does it make when Artemovsk is liberated, May 9, May 15 or May 30?
“Ukraine has stated they have built complete new units of over 80,000 men and western equipment for the spring offensive.”
The piquancy of the situation is that in March Ukraine announced 12 brigades, at the end of April it was already about 9 brigades, and today it was announced that out of 8 brigs 6 are ready. Again, one brigade was lost somewhere.
and yes, the debut of these guys has already taken place in the Zaporozhye direction. everything as you described! on Western equipment (do you recognize the YPR-765 armored personnel carrier?) in a fashionable NATO uniform. beauty 🙂
t.me/RVvoenkor/44169
Paul
May 5, 2023 at 4:02 pm
@From Russia with love
Yes, you are feeling really embarrassed now aren’t you. Think I can spot some red cheeks in those stale smileys now, while you are frantically writing new posts to throw a smoke screen around your embarrassing predictions. See you are desperately trying to change the subject to inflation! for some reason.
Maybe you should think a little before you write from now on. I see you call me a stupid liar when I am paraphrasing your very own words, that’s rich even for you. YOU said Russia controlled 30%. If I’m a liar for repeating your words, what does that make you?
I see you still will not recognize the great success of the Ukrainian army liberating vast areas of Ukrainian lands, despite your embarrassing prediction that they were about to collapse. Instead, you are focusing on the miniscule WW1-like advance the Russian army have achieved this year, while impaling themselves at the Ukrainian defenders. I see you are repeating the “news” you are feed by Russian propaganda about the Ukrainian army getting slaughtered. Now consider the implication of the propaganda you believe in:
If you are right that Ukrainian army is bleeding way more than Russian army, and the Russian side is superior in armor, artillery etc. Then the Russian side could just keep up the pressure and the Russian advantage would only grow. Eventually the Ukrainian army would have to withdraw on a wide front, or risk a total collapse (just like the Russian army had to in the face of the Ukrainians’ Kharkiv and Kherson offensives 🙂
Now if western media and higher quality news providers are right on the other hand. In that the Russian side is impaling themselves and are bleeding way more than the Ukrainians. The implication of this scenario is that the Ukrainians will over time get relatively stronger compared to the Russian side. This will eventually lead to the Russian offensive petering out, despite gaining almost no ground, and thus despite not having to endure any lengthening of supply lines or being spread thinner to cover more area.
So, let’s look for signs of the Ukrainians collapsing before summer or the Russian offensive petering out. Then you will know if Russian “news” or western news are right
from Russia with love
May 7, 2023 at 5:21 pm
@Paul
“Yes, you are feeling really embarrassed now aren’t you.”
No. I’m crying! crying with laughter! 🙂 🙂 🙂
“See you are desperately trying to change the subject to inflation! for some reason.”
I don’t change the subject. I’m just telling another idiot who believes the slogan that Russia has problems, that Russia has far fewer problems than the United States. and Russia will crush you. 😉
“If I’m a liar for repeating your words, what does that make you?”
You are a liar for what you wrote here. 😉 “Now Russian control of Ukraine is down to 17%.”. why do you need to be poked into your puddle like a pissing kitten?
since on the other points you lied many times, there is every reason to believe that you lied about the fact that I wrote about 30%. provide a link. for sure there is the same story as with the mobilization in May. 😉 you are a chronic liar. 🙂
“I see you are repeating the “news” you are feed by Russian propaganda about the Ukrainian army getting slaughtered.”
you see? this is some interesting news! how do you know the news of Russian propaganda? no one writes about it here, except me. and then I write here not the news itself, but my conclusions from this information. if you still believe that the Russian economy has some problems, then you are lying again that you are familiar with the news from Russia. 😉
now for your findings…
due to the fact that your propaganda is obsessed with the myth that the goal of Russia is the seizure of territory, you are making completely erroneous predictions. 😉
1) Zelensky has another 1.5 million Ukrainians who can be thrown into the trenches, slowing down the advance of the Russian army.
2) Zelensky is completely dependent on NATO arms supplies.
3) support for hostilities in Ukraine does not harm the Russian economy. at the same time, these hostilities are taking a heavy toll on the EU and US economies.
Based on paragraph 1, the Krajina will be able to slow down the advance of Russia up to 3 years, provided that NATO supplies are maintained, but stable NATO supplies are enough for another year and a half. stocks are depleted and there are problems with reproduction. at the same time, Russia has established the reproduction of all the necessary ammunition. the further Ukraine retreats, the more difficult it will be to maintain stable NATO assistance, and due to paragraph 2, the combat effectiveness of Zelensky’s formations will decrease.
in accordance with paragraph 3, in order to solve the tasks that Russia sets for itself, there is no need for a rapid offensive. also, the slow advance is associated with the new realities of hostilities, the constant control of the front line on both sides and the impossibility of concentrating large units for the offensive.
Russia benefits from prolonging the conflict and forcing the EU and the US to accept Russia’s terms. based on this fact, Russia in the near future (most likely until the end of the year) will continue to apply pressure along the entire front line and carry out an advance accompanied by the formation of defense. some kind of deep offensives are possible after the supply of weapons starts to decrease significantly, and this is inevitable, or the Ukrainians will start to end and problems with Zelensky’s propaganda will begin because of the loss of territories.
“So, let’s look for signs of the Ukrainians collapsing before summer or the Russian offensive petering out.” this is extremely unlikely. as unlikely as the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. 😉 if it takes place at all…
from Russia with love
May 7, 2023 at 5:34 pm
@Paul
By the way, I wanted to ask you, how does your propaganda explain the fact that Ukraine, which is at war with Russia, continues to transit gas from Russia and ammonia from Russia to the EU through its territory? Does Zelensky definitely have a war with Russia, or is there a business plan for making money from stealing Western military aid and receiving income from the transit of Russian gas to the EU? 🙂