The Ukrainian military is preparing for a large-scale counteroffensive in a few weeks. More than 14 months into the war, there is a lot at stake for Kyiv.
Ukraine needs successes to maintain the momentum that powers its defense against Russian aggression.
The Stakes of the Ukrainian Counteroffensive
The Ukrainian military has indicated that a large-scale counteroffensive will take place in the next few weeks. Although the place and exact time of the operation is unknown, the stakes for Ukraine are high.
In short, the Ukrainians need a “loud” victory.
To be sure, it’s hard to repeat the lighting successes of last fall when the Ukrainian military liberated hundreds of square miles of territory in the east and south in just a few days.
The Russian forces know that the counteroffensive is coming, and they have been bolstering their defenses all across the battlefield. In the south, in particular, the Russian military has created extensive defensive lines, which in some places have three layers.
Of course, no defensive line is formidable if it isn’t manned by adequate, well-trained, and confident troops. That is a point where the Russian forces might have an issue. Moscow’s own large-scale offensive in the Donbas has forced the Russian military to divert units from other parts of the battlefield.
The Ukrainians don’t have to have a total numerical superiority. Indeed, if Kyiv can manage to attain relative numerical superiority at a key part of the battlefield, it can achieve an operational breakthrough. And Ukraine needs that breakthrough if it wants to finish the war quickly. There are already some clouds in the West.
Western Reservations and Support
Kyiv needs to achieve something concrete with its counteroffensive; otherwise, it risks weakening the Western coalition that has been supporting the Ukrainian military.
The Western coalition has supported the Ukrainian military with more than $60 billion worth of weapon systems since the start of the invasion. The U.S. has led the way with more than $35 billion in security aid. Western military support has been key in the Ukrainian successes so far.
What makes Western support for Ukraine particularly difficult is the number of countries involved. It’s not just the United States. Dozens of countries have been sending weapon systems to Ukraine. U.S. support to Ukraine relies on a strong coalition of countries.
A large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive that doesn’t achieve anything concrete on the ground will add fuel to those who argue that the West should be urging Kyiv to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I don’t think that there’s going to be this, wake up one morning and see, like, Ukrainian streaming across large swaths of territory sort of situation,” said one of U.S. officials to Politico.
The Pentagon leaks also indicated that U.S. military expectations on the upcoming Ukrainian operation are modest.
However, the U.S. and the West have misjudged the Ukrainians and their combat capabilities before. It remains to be seen if the Ukrainian military will pleasantly surprise the world once more.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. He is currently working towards a Master’s Degree in Strategy and Cybersecurity at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
