Russian forces in and around Bakhmut have started to retreat after a series of local Ukrainian counterattacks.
On day 443 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces are starting to gain momentum. However, it is unlikely that Kyiv has started its large-scale counteroffensive.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky only recently stated that they would have to delay the offensive operation because they aren’t ready yet.
Russian Retreat from Bakhmut
Starting on Wednesday, Russian units have started to withdraw from positions in and around Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces are pushing hard, using artillery and mechanized infantry to liberate territory.
According to satellite imagery, the Ukrainian forces have liberated at least half a mile of territory.
“The area has some tactical significance because it was a Russian bridgehead on the western side of the Donets-Donbas Canal, which marks the front line through parts of the sector,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
The Russian military’s 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade has been one of the units that has lost ground. A rather new unit—created in the fall—the 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade has suffered heavy casualties in the fighting in the Donbas and has been “dogged with allegations of poor morale and limited combat effectiveness,” the British Military Intelligence stated.
“Its deployment to such a demanding and operationally important sector highlights Russia’s severe shortage of credible combat units,” the British Military Intelligence added.
The Ukrainian forces are a long way from liberating the entirety of Bakhmut. However, any progress that forces the Russian forces to retreat is a good sign. Russian commanders have to also be fearful of their units’ morale. The long war, lack of successes, and extremely heavy casualties have created a perfect cocktail for disobedience within the Russian ranks. The Russian military has to be careful that a retreat doesn’t become a rout.
The Ukrainian counterattacks show that the Russian forces are far from taking the town. The fighting for Bakhmut will soon reach the one-year mark, and it is by far the bloodiest of the war.
Russian Casualties
Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to take significant casualties on the ground in Ukraine.
Over the last 24 hours, the Russian Aerospace Forces have suffered heavy casualties. Reports from the ground indicate that the Russian military lost one Su-35 Flanker fighter jet, one Su-34 Fullback fighter bomber, and two Mi-8 Hip transport helicopters in Bryansk province, northeast of Ukraine.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 198,260 Russian troops, destroyed 310 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 296 attack and transport helicopters, 3,751 tanks, 3,095 artillery pieces, 7,307 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 561 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,611 vehicles and fuel tanks, 314 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,665 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 402 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 970 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
