On Tuesday, the Russian military launched another wave of missiles and suicide drones against Ukraine. The Russian military has managed to hit a Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot air defense system with a hypersonic missile, damaging the weapon.
On day 447 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian military still maintains the strategic advantage.
Russian Casualties
The Russian forces continue to take significant casualties on the ground. Over the past 24 hours, the Russian military, Wagner Group private military company, and pro-Russian separatists lost more than 600 troops killed or wounded, according to Ukrainian estimates. With these casualties, the Russian forces have now lost more than 200,000 troops killed or wounded since the start of the war about 15 months ago.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Wednesday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 200,590 Russian troops, destroyed 308 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 294 attack and transport helicopters, 3,771 tanks, 3,166 artillery pieces, 7,348 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 562 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 6,067 vehicles and fuel tanks, 318 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,748 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 417 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 982 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
However, there is some discrepancy in the numbers. Western intelligence assessments put the number of Russian casualties to more than 220,000 killed or wounded. And U.S. officials released the latest intelligence assessment several weeks ago, and that figure is likely higher now.
Patriot Damaged
The latest Russian missile attack against Kyiv hit a Ukrainian MIM-104 Patriot air defense system around the Ukrainian capital.
Ukrainian and U.S. officials stated that the Ukrainian air defenses shot down six Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. However, one of the Russian hypersonic munitions damaged a MIM-104 Patriot.
U.S. officials stated that an initial evaluation of the damage on the MIM-104 Patriot air defense system concluded that the weapon system is still operational. The U.S. and Germany have been the countries that have committed MIM-104 Patriots to Ukraine.
The Russian missile strategy against Ukraine has been plagued by poor targeting. The Russian military doesn’t have a credible, dynamic strike capability. For example, Russian targeteers can’t use forward observers close to the front or Spetsnaz special operators behind enemy lines in the same interactive way the Ukrainians can use their own capabilities.
Russian Munitions
The Russian military has been having trouble sustaining its missile attacks against Ukraine.
The Western sanctions have taken their toll on the Russian defense and aerospace industry, which can’t produce enough munitions to replenish the Russian military’s arsenal.
As a result, the Russian military has been forced to use ballistic and cruise missiles that are designed for other purposes (for example, launching S-300 air defense missiles against ground targets).
But the Russian military has been forced to use some of its most expensive munitions.
For instance, last week, the Russian Navy launched eight SS-N-30a SAGARIS land attack cruise missiles. In 15 months of war, the Russian military hasn’t used such munitions often.
“How to use these scarce and expensive weapons is one of the numerous dilemmas Russian commanders face because the war in Ukraine has gone on much longer than they originally planned for,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in a recent estimate of the war.
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A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
