Now that Ukraine’s counter-offensive is in full swing, increased casualties on both sides are expected. Over the last few weeks, Ukrainian forces have launched attacks on multiple locations to the north and south of Bakhmut, searching for weak spots and vulnerabilities.
Before Kyiv began working towards recapturing territory, Bakhmut saw the bloodiest battles throughout the last eighteen months of warfare. Artillerymen of the 30th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently detailed that in recent days fighting in this eastern city has intensified, coinciding with the country’s counter-offensive efforts. While both sides claim victories in the contested city, the fighting has clearly been close and any advances have been challenged or thwarted. Russian forces appear to have captured a large portion of Bakhmut, however, due to domestic strife and uncertain longevity, this “strategy victory” may backfire as the counter-offensive continues.
Bakhmut – Home to the Bloodiest Battles of the War
Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine has resulted in scores of casualties. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, more than 200,000 Russian soldiers have perished in the war. Obviously, the figures Ukraine and Russia provide should be questioned, since both countries mold figures to best support their respective war efforts. However, analysts and industry experts alike can agree that the Ukraine invasion has taken a major toll on Russian troops. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense also claimed that nearly 4,000 Russian main battle tanks (MBTS) have been destroyed, in addition to 352 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 314 airframes, 1171 cruise missiles, 18 boats, 6349 vehicles, and fuel tanks, among other military equipment and munitions.
Russia’s Casualty Rates are Going Up
Since Ukraine launched its counter-offensive in recent days, Russia is believed to have suffered from additional heavy losses. Combined, Russian troops, Wagner Group mercenaries, and Russian separatist forces have lost roughly 1,700 troops. If this figure is accurate, the situation is dire for Moscow. A lack of military leadership, modern weapons, ammunition, and training can all be linked to the large losses of Russian troops. In the early months of the war, Moscow had already lost so many of its MBTs to anti-tank weapons, abandonment, or capture that it had to turn to its storage of antiquated Soviet-era tanks. Without proper equipment, logistical support, or training, Russian tank crews have been forced to use these inferior tanks or leave them for Ukrainian forces to capture altogether.
According to NBC News, “As of February, the U.S. estimated that Russia had suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties, including 35,500 to 43,000 killed in action, according to a leaked Pentagon document obtained by NBC News and other news outlets, part of a trove of classified material posted online. The same document estimated that Ukraine had suffered 124,500 to 131,000 casualties, with 15,500 to 1 7,500 killed in action.”
While these numbers have likely increased, so have Ukraine’s casualty figures. Western analysts also believe Kyiv has lost substantial numbers of troops and personnel since the invasion began.
Following the Wagner insurrection, Russian troops may be impacted by the domestic chaos at home. As Kyiv’s counter-offensive wages on, casualties on both sides will continue to rise.
Maya Carlin, a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.
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