Winning the Battle and Losing the War – Donald Trump and the 2024 Election: No big news here. Former President Donald Trump remains the Republican frontrunner, and according to a new NBC News poll, 51 percent of GOP voters said he would be their first pick for the 2024 Republican nomination.
That is actually a five-point jump from April – while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis currently holds 22 percent of the vote, a nine-point drop.
The fact that Trump is facing numerous legal battles is also only helping him. The same poll found that six out of 10 Republicans believe the recent indictments investigations are politically motivated.
“For the first time in history, a former president has been indicted, and we can’t find a marker in this survey that it’s had an impact with his standing,” Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, told NBC News.
“Not only are they sticking with Trump post-federal indictment,” Horwitt said of Republican voters, “there are several signs that his support is growing or others are losing ground, particularly Ron DeSantis.”
With just over six months until the primary season kicks off, Trump remains the candidate to beat. But that’s for the Republican nomination, and it is still very likely that Trump will lose the general election. This is very much shaping up to be a case of winning a key battle, only to lose the war.
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Trump’s popularity within the Republican base could be described as wholly unprecedented, and while that works in his favor to secure the nomination, it could work against him as he will likely take on President Joe Biden.
A rematch often favors the past winner even if the Rocky movies suggest otherwise.
The 2020 election saw the largest turnout of eligible voters in the history of the United States, and both Biden and Trump received more votes than any previous candidate. Trump has continued to cast the election as stolen, even as the evidence largely suggests otherwise. That claim of a rigged/stolen election will likely cost him support from some moderate Republicans, and more importantly, is unlikely to win over independent voters. Last fall, two-thirds of independents said in a poll they didn’t even want Trump to run again.
A lot of the support Biden received was as much about voting against Trump as it was for supporting Biden. Those voters are also likely to make a similar decision.
The Issues: Economy, Border, Ukraine
Had Trump been able to challenge Biden last year, it is possible that he could have come out on top. The country faced record-high gas prices last summer and the highest inflation in decades. Both were serious issues, but inflation has been on the decline, while gas prices have leveled off.
Though still a concern this year, it is too early to know where we could be next year. If inflation continues to fall, there might not be enough for Trump to talk about. If gas prices fall, it will also favor Biden.
Then there is the issue of Ukraine.
It is a hot-button topic for Trump’s base, who maintained that Biden hasn’t done enough to address the crisis at the border while the U.S. is sending too much aid to Ukraine, there are still plenty of independent voters and even enough Republicans who think Ukraine is a serious issue and needs our unwavering support.
Trump has said repeatedly he’d end the war in the war through negotiations – but this still requires both Russia and Ukraine to be even willing to participate. For now, Trump is only broadcasting that he is out of his depth in foreign affairs.
Too Much Focus on the Base
Trump has also doubled down on appealing to his base to the point that he almost seems at times to go to great lengths to unnecessarily drive away moderates.
Such was the case in February when he attacked pop singer/actress Rihanna on social media and claimed has no talent. Her performance during the Super Bowl LVII was the most-watched halftime show of all time, and she maintains a social media presence that dwarf’s the former presidents.
Yet, Trump sought to pick a fight before and then again after her performance, suggesting she had no talent and then labeling the show as an “epic fail.”
This may seem like a “nothing burger” given how often Trump responds to nearly everything via posts to social media, but almost certainly gained little to nothing from the posts either. Calling out Rihanna, or belittling Ron DeSantis for daring to run against him doesn’t sway any voters.
But it can cost some – and worse for Trump it could encourage those who find his bullying nature to vote against him.
It remains absolutely true that Trump needs to secure the nomination if he stands any chance of taking back the White House, but his strategy is one that will only get Biden reelected in the general election. It is the rematch no one seems to want, especially as the country deserves a reset from either likely candidate.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
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