Trump’s primary lead has grown: Following his federal indictment, Donald Trump has a larger lead than before in the Republican primary contest, a new NBC News poll says
Donald Trump Is the GOP and Dominating It
Donald Trump being indicted in federal court may have made it more likely that he will return to the presidency, but it doesn’t seem to have hurt him with Republican voters- on the contrary, in fact.
According to a new NBC News poll released over the weekend, Republican voters were asked who would be their first and second choice among the Republican candidates for president.
In the first choice category, Trump is over the 50 percent mark, with 51 percent of respondents marking him as their first choice. Gov. Ron DeSantis is second, with 22 percent, with no other candidate in double digits. Former Vice President Mike Pence is third with 7 percent, while former Gov. Chris Christie has 5 percent, followed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with 4 percent, Sen. Tim Scott with 3 percent, and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson with 2 percent.
When asked for their second choice, DeSantis got 31 percent, while Trump and Scott each rated 12 percent, and Haley had 11 percent.
The poll was conducted for NBC by Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies and Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates. It was taken June 16-20, shortly after Trump’s indictment was handed down.
In the April version of the poll, Trump’s lead was much smaller, with Trump getting 46 percent of first choices and DeSantis 31 percent. This shows, for one thing, that DeSantis has gained no traction, and has actually lost some since he formally entered the race.
When asked whether they want Trump to continue as the leader of the Republican Party, 49 percent said they would, while 21 percent say they believe Trump was a good president but it’s time to consider other leaders, while 29 percent say the party “needs a new leader with better personal behavior and an approach different from Trump.”
The poll also shows that, in a hypothetical general election contest, President Biden leads Trump with 49 percent compared to 45 percent, while a hypothetical matchup between Biden and DeSantis is a tie at 47 percent.
Per NBC News, “the survey finds half of Republican primary voters say they would consider another leader besides Trump — which suggests a potential opening for a rival to capture the GOP nomination, even as 6 out of 10 Republicans believe the indictments and investigations Trump faces are politically motivated.”
“For the first time in history, a former president has been indicted, and we can’t find a marker in this survey that it’s had an impact with his standing,” McInturff said, per NBC News.
“Not only are they sticking with Trump post-federal indictment,” Horwitt said, “there are several signs that his support is growing or others are losing ground, particularly Ron DeSantis.”
“Looking back at 2020, the election was a referendum on Donald Trump,” Horwitt added of the general election polling. “And if we have a Biden-Trump rematch, there are powerful signs that the focus will once again be more on Trump than Biden.”
Donald Trump shared the poll — the part about the Republican primary, anyway — on Truth Social on Sunday.
Another poll last week, the latest edition of Morning Consult’s tracking poll of the race had Trump winning by even more. That poll had Trump leading with 57 percent support, followed by DeSantis with 20 percent, Pence with 7, and Haley, Scott, Ramaswamy and Christie with 3 percent each.
Hutchinson had 1 percent, while North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum registered in the poll at zero percent. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who entered the race last week, did not show up in the polling yet.
However, Trump’s poll performance in the Morning Consult tracking poll was off from its all-time high of 61 percent, the previous month.
Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.