Donald Trump maintains a big lead in the Republican primary: The former president has a 40-point lead over top opponent Ron DeSantis, according to the latest Morning Consult tracking poll.
Donald Trump: Indicted, and Yet, Still the Leader of GOP?
Since the start of June, there have been a few key developments in the presidential race on the Republican side. The biggest, of course, is that Donald Trump has been indicted on 37 counts in federal court.
Also, Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Gov. Chris Christie, and former Vice President Mike Pence have all formally entered the race.
However, none of those developments appear to have changed the race significantly. Trump still has a huge lead, while none of the three new candidates has gotten much of a bump from their launch. Trump has gained a few points of support from the previous poll.
According to the latest Morning Consult tracking poll, released Tuesday, Trump holds a 40-point lead over DeSantis, with 59 percent of support among Republican voters, compared to 19 percent for the Florida governor. Pence is third, with 8 percent, followed by Sen. Tim Scott with 4 percent. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has 3 percent, as does businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, while Christie has 2 percent. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who also announced a long-shot bid for president this month, is listed in the poll at zero percent.
While Trump has gained in the polling, DeSantis has actually lost support since he began actively campaigning.
“Nearly 3 in 5 potential Republican primary (59%) voters back Trump for the party’s 2024 presidential nomination, up from 55% last week before news of his indictment on charges related to his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House,” the press release announcing the poll results said. “Almost 1 in 5 (19%) support DeSantis, nearing an all-time low since tracking began in December.”
Morning Consult added that Pence and Burgum have “meager support” since they announced their own runs.
The poll also measured how much media coverage Republican voters are seeing about the candidates.
“Potential GOP primary voters were 13 percentage points more likely to hear something negative than positive about Trump, 46% to 33%, following his second indictment,” they said. “Meanwhile, roughly 2 in 5 potential primary voters (41%) heard nothing about Pence following his announcement, while 52% heard nothing about Christie and 84% heard nothing about Burgum.”
Christie appeared for a CNN town hall earlier this week, during which he was much more willing to criticize Trump than most candidates in the race have been.
“He has shown himself, particularly in his post-presidency,” the former governor and former friend of the ex-president said on CNN, “to be completely self-centered, completely self-consumed and doesn’t give a damn about the American people, in my point of view.”
Christie took the view not only that Trump really did lose the 2020 election, but that he really did things wrong that led to his recent federal indictment.
“It’s a child’s reaction,” Christie added. “I beg you to think about this. Don’t allow the showmanship to obscure the facts. The facts are, he lost to Joe Biden. And he lost to Joe Biden, in my opinion, because he lost independent voters.”
The question is whether such a message has any purchase in today’s Republican Party, in which Trump is popular, as is his version of history which supposes that is not and has not done anything wrong.
Per the RealClearPolitics polling aggregation, Trump leads the Republican race by an average of about 30 points, with every single poll in the last month having him up by at least 21 points. The most recent CBS/YouGov poll has Trump ahead by 38th percent, while USA Today/Suffolk has Trump up by 25 points.
General election polls are much closer, with the RCP average showing Trump winning by 1.8 points, although two recent polls show Biden ahead of Trump by a small margin.
Expertise and Experience:
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
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