While Kyiv remains tight-lipped about its plans, refusing to confirm whether the long-awaited counteroffensive has even technically begun, an uptick in heavy fighting across Ukraine has sparked speculation and rumor among analysts that the plans are finally coming to fruition.
Ukrainian forces in the Belgorod region have engaged in guerilla-style warfare, drone strikes have hit Russia’s capital city, and a video was even released by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense teasing Russia. In the clip, Ukrainian soldiers put a finger to their lips, as if suggesting that they are keeping something secret.
The clip was shared by Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, accompanied by lyrics from a Depeche Mode song.
“Words are very unnecessary,” Reznikov wrote. “They can only do harm.”
While Kyiv may not have officially announced the counteroffensive, the taunting videos are evidence enough that it is either underway or that recent military action is a precursor to what will eventually become the counteroffensive – in whatever form it will take.
Russia Says It’s Started
On Monday, Russia’s Defense Ministry suggested that the counteroffensive had already begun, issuing a statement describing how a “large-scale offensive” had been launched across five sectors of the frontlines in southern Donetsk. The region includes Bakhmut, the city recently claimed by the Russian military.
Telegram posts by Russian veterans and military analysts shared this week also suggest that Ukrainian forces have dramatically increased their rate of fire on positions in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
“I think now we can already talk about the beginning of the offensive announced by Ukraine for so long. There hasn’t been such movement at the front for a long time. And on the part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it never happened at all,” one user wrote, adding, “It’s happening.”
Russian military journalist Alexander Sladkov also noted on Telegram that “the offensive has begun.”
Beyond “Shaping Operations”?
While Ukrainian assaults have picked up in recent weeks, with a second drone strike on Moscow this time causing some damage – albeit minor – it’s hard to tell whether Ukrainian forces are still engaging in “shaping operations” or actually starting their counteroffensive.
“Shaping operations” refers to a series of strikes and military decisions designed to shake Russian defenses, analyze enemy positions, and force Russian troops to dissipate from their established positions to regions where Ukrainian troops may be able to counter them more effectively.
Russian forces appear to be well aware of Ukraine’s plans, with the Russian Ministry of Defense announcing successful strikes on America Patriot missile defenses in Kyiv, as well as other attacks on Ukraine’s military intelligence headquarters.
Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
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