Donald Trump Is in Serious Trouble: From it’s a total witch hunt to 37 counts of having violated federal law—including the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice—at breakneck speed.
It’s fair to say that former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign for reelection just got significantly more complicated.
The question on everyone’s mind is whether Trump’s recent indictment for mishandling classified documents will hinder or help his reelection campaign.
The Indictments Are Not Helping Donald Trump
The conventional wisdom is that the recent spate of indictments are politically charged and, therefore, will only empower Trump in his bid to become once more the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in the 2024 Election.
When the first round of indictments in a Manhattan court for purported hush money payouts to the pornographic film star, Stormy Daniels, came out that is precisely what happened. Trump’s popularity and support among likely Republican Party primary voters increased.
Yet, that is not the only story here.
Since the Stormy Daniels indictment until the indictment for mishandling classified documents, Trump’s support among likely GOP voters has steadily declined.
Just two months ago, Trump’s lead in the GOP Primary was a solid 30 points higher than his nearest likely competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Today, those numbers have declined. On a national level, according to a Reuters/Ipsos Poll, Trump is just 21 points ahead of his nearest competitor, DeSantis. On a state-by-level, especially in key battleground states, such as Iowa, the former president is in a virtual tie with DeSantis.
This, as most Americans polled indicate that, while they think the investigations into Trump are politically motivated, they also believe that the former president’s alleged mishandling of classified documents is a serious crime.
Of course, polling data from the most recent week in June has yet to be disseminated. It is possible Trump enjoys a boost among likely Republican voters.
Given that DeSantis gained ground steadily over Trump in the intervening three months since the forty-fifth president’s last indictment, it stands to reason that DeSantis will continue gaining ground irrespective of Trump’s indictments (there is another possible one on the way for Trump’s alleged attempt to interfere with the 2020 Georgia election recount).
Beyond the primary in which Trump assumes Republican voters will follow him no matter what (if these numbers are accurate, Trump should not take that granted), in a General Election against President Joe Biden—who already defeated Trump in 2020—Trump’s support rapidly declines.
Independent voters are already predisposed to dislike Trump because of the controversy he generates.
Throw in the notion that Trump purports himself above the law—which is how his classified documents mishandling is being perceived by most independent voters—and Trump’s chances to beat Biden vanish.
Donald Trump: Acting Above the Law Loses Voters
One of the many reasons that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016 was because of her email scandal.
At that time, the fact that Clinton was so flippant about her obvious abuse of state secrets; that she showed no contrition and even acted as if she was entitled to flout government standards, pushed voters away from her.
Americans intuitively understood that if they did even half of what she did, they’d have had the proverbial book thrown at them.
Now, Trump, the man who bested Hillary largely because she was perceived as being more corrupt than he, is engaged in the same flagrant abuse.
Voters are as turned off to Trump presently as they were to Hillary.
To say that the Trump indictments are not hurting—even helping—the incipient Trump Campaign for reelection in 2024 is the ultimate delusion.
Even if Republican voters are sympathetic with Trump over the politically charged indictments, independents are not. And, usually, it is independent voters who determine national elections.
DeSantis is the Only Viable GOP Candidate in 2024
The Republicans, if they ultimately nominate Donald Trump, will be electing a candidate who fails to appeal to independents. They will be giving unwarranted amounts of political ground to Joe Biden, who is himself deeply compromised—but still more well-liked by independents than Trump.
There is only one candidate who has both the policymaking chops as well as the likability factor that Trump lacks.
That is Governor Ron DeSantis. It will be an unbelievable unforced error to nominate Trump over DeSantis. Republicans will rue the day as independents offer the strongest rebuke of any GOP candidate in decades. What’s more, it is totally unnecessary, since there is an actual alternative to Trump.
It is quite convenient, to say the least, that these politically charged indictments and the breathless media coverage around them keep happening just as DeSantis is starting to gain ground on Trump in the GOP Primary.
It’s almost as though the Democrats and Joe Biden prefer the deeply flawed and unpopular Trump to the young, dynamic, and competent DeSantis.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
From 19FortyFive
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