Geoffrey Skelley, a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, described on Thursday, July 13, how the Democrats are fretting about the possibility of a third-party candidate eating into President Joe Biden’s support in the 2024 presidential race.
Skelley described how a plan by the “No Labels” organization to field a centrist presidential ticket to run against tickets that will no doubt reflect the extremes of both the Republican and the Democratic Party could hurt Biden more than it would Trump, and argued that Cornel West’s bid for the Green Party nomination could impact Biden and the Democrats further.
Skelley has the data to prove it, too.
Surveys conducted since late May – within the last handful of weeks – have repeatedly shown that President Joe Biden could win against former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head match in 2024. When a No Labels or Green Party ticket is thrown into the mix, however, the race becomes much more competitive, and Trump even leads against Biden in a number of those polls.
Make adjustments for the famous “Silent Trump” voters, too, and the Democrats could be looking at a real upset in the 2024 race.
What Is “No Labels”?
“No Labels” is an organization that argues that American political leaders must “declare their freedom from the anger and divisiveness that are ruining our politics.” The group promises to give a voice to the politically homeless who feel left behind by the “extremes on the left and the right.”
The group, which was formed in 2009, put forward an “Insurance Policy for 2024” campaign with the intention of “preparing for the possibility of nominating a candidate” to run in the next presidential election. A candidate will be put forward to represent the group only under “the proper environmental conditions,” with researchers having been tasked with conducting polling and research to determine whether their candidate could technically win.
Would RFK Step Up to the Plate?
Outside of No Labels and the Green Party, there’s another glaringly obvious potential third-party candidate. Robert Kennedy Jr., currently President Joe Biden’s strongest Democratic challenger for 2024, has not pledged to run as a third party and has said on several occasions during his campaign that he has “no plan B.”
That being said, if any candidate were to run as a third-party option and have a real chance of winning, it would be a Kennedy.
If Robert Kennedy Jr. were to run third party in 2024, it likely wouldn’t only depend on whether he believes he could win, but also on who he thinks is a worse option for America – Trump or Biden – and who his campaign would benefit the most.
Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
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