Yes, Donald Trump Can Win in 2024: Set aside the conspiracies about rigged elections.
Ignore the pessimism for a moment (which I share) about the forty-fifth president’s chances of again getting to the White House.
Consider, just for a moment, the fact that ours is a two-party-dominated political system.
Therefore, a binary choice between the Democratic Party’s nominee, President Joe Biden, and the likely Republican Party nominee of former President Donald J. Trump, means that whatever fence-sitters are presently out there during the contentious primaries, will necessarily have to make a choice between one of these two men.
Thus, all things being equal, Trump does have a real shot at the White House if he becomes the GOP nominee.
No, it’s not obvious or even likely. But it’s a shot.
The Democrats know this—which is why they’re both elated and mortified at this prospect.
A strain of thinking on the Left goes something like this: Donald Trump is beloved by the Republican Party base and will likely dominate the GOP Primary.
Yet, the very same things that make Trump such an appealing candidate to Republican primary voters also make him quite unappealing to General Election voters—notably independent voters and minority voters.
Another line of thought among Democrats worries about Trump’s appeal.
Nothing Beats Winning Like Winning
If the former president steamrolls his rivals in the GOP Primary (thus far, he is), and if the former president’s legal woes only further empower him over his political rivals (as they currently are), then what happens if Trump appears to many Americans as a winning candidate for whom they’ll want to cast their vote?
What if an astounding victory for Donald Trump in the GOP primary and his constant survival during countless legal problems that would have taken down any other candidate only makes him more appealing to voters during the general election?
This is especially true considering that Joe Biden is one of the most unpopular presidents to ever run for re-election. He’s even more unpopular than former President Jimmy Carter was when he ran for re-election against Ronald Reagan in 1980. Trump is unpopular, too, but he’s not the incumbent. Joe Biden is.
Democrats are already fretting about the economy. That’s interesting, isn’t it? After all, the Biden administration and their allies in the press have been insisting that this is greatest economy in the history of America.
Of course, there is more here than meets the eye. An astonishing 71 percent of Americans polled believe that the country under Biden’s leadership is on the wrong track. Most Americans do not concur with the Democrats’ claim that things are so amazing economically right now.
The personal indebtedness of most Americans is at all-time highs. So, too, are the number of Americans who are working more than one job just to make ends meet. Inflation, while it has come down from its historic high last year, is still high for most Americans. Interest rates are stratospheric as well.
Many Americans have not had a pay increase to keep pace with cost of living in years. No, things are not great for most Americans economically, President Biden.
If the adage that Americans vote with their wallets is true, then Donald Trump should win in a landslide. Of course, he won’t win in a landslide. Like Biden, Trump is painfully unpopular among most Americans. But the Democrats are playing a dangerous game with the great legal pile-on that they’re subjecting Trump to.
The Indictments Might Not Hurt Donald Trump in the End
Consider this: Whatever Trump’s guilt or innocence may be in the various cases he’s currently facing, the appearance that the Democrats are weaponizing the justice system to break the back of Trump’s campaign is real.
Democrats are hoping that enough independent voters will be turned off by the sense of entitlement and impunity which Trump exudes. Then again, though, enough voters just might decide that the cases arrayed against Trump are politically motivated. These voters might opt to vote for Trump because the situation in America is so bleak under Biden.
Already there are concerns about Biden’s mental health. Trump is polling well among key swing state voters. None of these factors bode well. Should enough voters in a general election come to believe that Trump is being unfairly prosecuted by a politicized DOJ, that just might be the end of things for Joe Biden’s campaign.
Democrats Can’t Run on Biden’s Record
The fact of the matter is that the Democrats cannot reliably run on their record in 2024. Therefore, the Biden campaign has to generate a lot of noise to distract voters. Exaggerated legal cases, attempted silencing of Trump and his supporters, a hostile press relationship with Trump, all these are things that the Biden campaign is relying upon to stymie Trump’s re-emergence in 2024.
Maybe it works.
Then again, given how badly Americans perceive things to be in the country, maybe enough voters break for Donald Trump, and return the dreaded Orange Man to the White House. The 2024 election is truly going to be a squeaker.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
From 19FortyFive
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